美國國會半年度貨幣政策報告

Chair Jerome H. Powell

Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.

在銀行、住房和城市事務(wù)委員會前，美國參議院，華盛頓特區(qū)。

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Chairman Brown, Ranking Member Scott, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual?Monetary Policy Report.

布朗主席、高級議員斯科特和委員會的其他成員，我很高興有機會向大家介紹美聯(lián)儲半年一度的貨幣政策報告。

My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is causing significant hardship, and?we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal. Over the past year, we have taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy. We have covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt. Even so, we have more work to do. Our policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of labor market conditions that benefit all.

我和我的同事們敏銳地意識到，高通脹正在造成嚴(yán)重的困難，我們堅定地致力于使通脹率恢復(fù)到2% 的目標(biāo)。過去一年，我們采取了有力措施，收緊了貨幣政策立場。我們已經(jīng)采取了很多措施，到目前為止，我們緊縮政策的全部效果尚未顯現(xiàn)出來。即便如此，我們還有更多的工作要做。我們的政策行動以促進(jìn)最大限度的就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價的雙重使命為指導(dǎo)。沒有價格穩(wěn)定，經(jīng)濟就不會為任何人服務(wù)。特別是，沒有價格的穩(wěn)定，我們就不可能實現(xiàn)勞動力市場條件的持續(xù)發(fā)展，使所有人受益。

I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

在轉(zhuǎn)向貨幣政策之前，我將回顧一下當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟形勢。

Current Economic Situation and Outlook?The data from January on employment, consumer spending, manufacturing production, and inflation have partly?reversed?the softening trends that we had seen in the data just a month ago. Some of this reversal likely reflects the unseasonably warm weather in January in much of the country. Still, the breadth of the reversal along with revisions to the previous quarter suggests that inflationary pressures are running higher than expected at the time of our previous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟形勢和展望 1月份的就業(yè)、消費者支出、制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)和通貨膨脹數(shù)據(jù)在一定程度上扭轉(zhuǎn)了我們一個月前在數(shù)據(jù)中看到的疲軟趨勢。這種逆轉(zhuǎn)部分可能反映了一月份該國大部分地區(qū)異常溫暖的天氣。盡管如此，這種逆轉(zhuǎn)的廣度以及對上一季度的修正表明，通脹壓力高于我們上一次聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議時的預(yù)期。

From a broader perspective, inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year but remains well above the FOMC's longer-run objective of 2 percent. The 12-month change in total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices has slowed from its peak of 7 percent in June to 5.4 percent in January as energy prices have declined and supply chain bottlenecks have eased.

從更廣泛的角度來看，通脹自去年年中以來有所緩和，但仍遠(yuǎn)高于聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會2% 的長期目標(biāo)。隨著能源價格的下降和供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸的緩解，個人消費總支出(PCE)價格12個月的變化已從6月份7% 的峰值降至1月份的5.4% 。

Over the past 12 months, core PCE inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, was 4.7 percent. As supply chain bottlenecks have eased and tighter policy has restrained demand, inflation in the core goods sector has fallen. And while housing services inflation remains too high, the flattening out in rents evident in recently signed leases points to a deceleration in this component of inflation over the year ahead.

在過去12個月中，核心個人消費支出通脹率(不包括波動的食品和能源價格)為4.7% 。隨著供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸得到緩解，政策收緊抑制了需求，核心商品部門的通脹有所下降。盡管住房服務(wù)業(yè)的通脹率仍然過高，但最近簽訂的租約顯示，租金水平趨于平緩，表明未來一年這一通脹因素將有所減速。

That said, there is little sign of disinflation thus far?in the category of core services excluding housing, which accounts for more than half of core consumer expenditures. To restore price stability,?we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions. Although nominal wage gains have slowed somewhat in recent months, they remain above what is consistent with 2 percent inflation and current trends in productivity. Strong wage growth is good for workers but only if it is not eroded by inflation.

盡管如此，在不包括住房在內(nèi)的核心服務(wù)領(lǐng)域，迄今為止幾乎沒有反通脹跡象。住房占核心消費者支出的一半以上。為了恢復(fù)物價穩(wěn)定，我們需要看到這個部門的通貨膨脹率下降，勞動力市場狀況很可能會有所軟化。盡管最近幾個月名義工資增長有所放緩，但仍高于2% 的通貨膨脹率和當(dāng)前的生產(chǎn)率趨勢。強勁的工資增長有利于工人，但前提是不受通脹侵蝕。

Turning to growth, the U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, with real gross domestic product rising at a below-trend pace of 0.9 percent. Although consumer spending appears to be expanding at a solid pace this quarter, other recent indicators point to subdued growth of spending and production. Activity in the housing sector continues to weaken, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

至于增長方面，美國經(jīng)濟去年顯著放緩，實際國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速低于趨勢水平，為0.9% 。盡管本季度消費者支出似乎在穩(wěn)步增長，但近期其它指標(biāo)顯示，支出和生產(chǎn)增長乏力。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的活動繼續(xù)減弱，主要是因為抵押貸款利率上升。利率上升和產(chǎn)出增長放緩似乎也在拖累企業(yè)固定投資。

Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight. The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in January, its lowest level since 1969. Job gains remained very strong in January, while the supply of labor has continued to lag.1 As of the end of December, there were 1.9 job openings for each unemployed individual, close to the all-time peak recorded last March, while unemployment insurance claims have remained near historical lows.

盡管經(jīng)濟增長放緩，勞動力市場仍然極度緊張。美國1月份失業(yè)率為3.4% ，為1969年以來的最低水平。1月份就業(yè)增長依然強勁，而勞動力供應(yīng)依然滯后。1截至12月底，每個失業(yè)人員有1.9個職位空缺，接近去年3月創(chuàng)下的歷史最高紀(jì)錄，而失業(yè)保險申請人數(shù)仍然接近歷史最低水平。

Monetary Policy?With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with the labor market remaining extremely tight, the FOMC has continued to tighten the stance of monetary policy, raising interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.2

貨幣政策?由于通貨膨脹率遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于我們2% 的長期目標(biāo)，而且勞動力市場仍然非常緊張，聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會繼續(xù)收緊貨幣政策的立場，在過去一年里提高了4.5個百分點的利率。我們繼續(xù)預(yù)計，聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間的持續(xù)上升將是適當(dāng)?shù)?，以便達(dá)到一種貨幣政策的立場，即充分限制，使通貨膨脹隨著時間的推移回到2% 。此外，我們還將繼續(xù)大幅縮減資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模。2

We are seeing the effects of our policy actions on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the Committee slowed the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, taking into account the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.

我們看到我們的政策行動對經(jīng)濟中對利益最敏感的部門的需求產(chǎn)生了影響。然而，貨幣緊縮的全部效果，尤其是對通貨膨脹的影響，要實現(xiàn)還需要時間。鑒于貨幣政策逐步收緊以及貨幣政策影響經(jīng)濟活動和通貨膨脹的滯后性，委員會在過去兩次會議上放慢了加息步伐。我們將繼續(xù)以會議方式作出決定，同時考慮到收到的全部數(shù)據(jù)及其對經(jīng)濟活動和通貨膨脹前景的影響。

Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. As I mentioned, the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.

盡管近幾個月來通貨膨脹有所緩和，但要使通貨膨脹率回落到2% 還有很長的路要走，而且可能會很顛簸。正如我剛才所說，最新的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)比預(yù)期的更為強勁，這表明最終的利率水平可能高于先前的預(yù)期。如果整體數(shù)據(jù)顯示需要加快緊縮步伐，我們會準(zhǔn)備加快加息步伐?；謴?fù)物價穩(wěn)定可能需要我們在一段時間內(nèi)保持貨幣政策的限制性立場。

Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.?The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.

我們的首要重點是利用我們的工具將通貨膨脹率降低到2% 的目標(biāo)，并保持較長期的通貨膨脹預(yù)期穩(wěn)定?；謴?fù)價格穩(wěn)定對于為實現(xiàn)最大限度的就業(yè)和長期穩(wěn)定價格奠定基礎(chǔ)至關(guān)重要。歷史記錄強烈警告不要過早放松政策。我們將堅持到任務(wù)完成。

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Federal Reserve will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

總而言之，我們明白我們的行動影響著全國各地的社區(qū)、家庭和企業(yè)。我們所做的一切都是為了我們的公共使命。我們美聯(lián)儲將竭盡全力實現(xiàn)我們的最大就業(yè)和價格穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)。

Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.

謝謝，我很樂意回答你們的問題。