In his book “The Art of the Deal”, Donald Trump admonishes businessmen who engage in cons and implores entrepreneurs to deliver results for their clients. Eventually, he says, a con artist can no longer outrun the people they’ve betrayed. “You can’t con people, at least not for long,” the former president wrote in his business bestseller, written before his political ascent. “You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press…But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.” These remarks are proving prescient about the business of politics. After defeat in three key elections in a row, Republicans are catching on to the con.

唐納德?特朗普在其著作《交易的藝術(shù)中責(zé)備那些從事欺詐行為的商人，并懇請(qǐng)企業(yè)家為客戶帶來(lái)成果。最終，他說(shuō)，騙子再也無(wú)法逃脫他們背叛的人?！澳泸_不了人，至少騙不了很久，”這位前總統(tǒng)在他的商業(yè)暢銷書(shū)中寫(xiě)道，這本書(shū)是在他的政治生涯上升之前寫(xiě)的?！澳憧梢灾圃炫d奮感，你可以進(jìn)行精彩的宣傳，獲得各種各樣的媒體報(bào)道……但如果你無(wú)法兌現(xiàn)承諾，人們最終還是會(huì)明白的?！?事實(shí)證明，這些言論是對(duì)政治事務(wù)的先見(jiàn)之明。在連續(xù)三次關(guān)鍵選舉失利后，共和黨人開(kāi)始識(shí)破騙局。

New polling from The Economist and YouGov, our partner in weekly surveys of American adults, shows Mr Trump’s popularity with Republican voters sinking. According to YouGov’s latest poll, conducted between December 10th and 13th, just 46% of respondents who said they were either Republicans or independents who “l(fā)ean towards” the Republican Party said they wanted Mr Trump to run for their party’s nomination again. And 37% did not want him to run. These polls were in the field before the House select committee investigating January 6th released its full report, which seems unlikely to help the former president either.

《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》和我們?cè)诿绹?guó)成年人每周調(diào)查中的合作伙伴 YouGov 的最新民調(diào)顯示，特朗普在共和黨選民中的受歡迎程度正在下降。根據(jù)YouGov在12月10日至13日進(jìn)行的最新民意調(diào)查，在自稱是共和黨人或“傾向于”共和黨的獨(dú)立人士的受訪者中，只有46%的人表示希望特朗普再次競(jìng)選共和黨提名。37%的人不希望他參選。這些民意調(diào)查是在眾議院特別委員會(huì)調(diào)查1月6日公布完整報(bào)告之前進(jìn)行的，這份報(bào)告似乎也不太可能對(duì)前總統(tǒng)有所幫助。

Compared with previous YouGov polls, that is the highest share yet of anti-Trump members of the Republican rank-and-file. In September, when YouGov began asking this question regularly, just 27% of Republicans said they did not want the former president to run again. Since then, the share who want Mr Trump to make America great again, again, has fallen from 56% to 46% (see chart). Some of the biggest declines have been among Republican women (57% to 41%), African-Americans (66% to 42%) and Republican voters who do not have college degrees (62% to 52%).

與此前的YouGov民調(diào)相比，這是迄今為止共和黨普通成員中反對(duì)特朗普的比例最高的一次。今年9月，當(dāng)YouGov開(kāi)始定期詢問(wèn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題時(shí)，只有27%的共和黨人表示他們不希望前總統(tǒng)再次參選。自那以后，希望特朗普再次讓美國(guó)變得偉大的比例從56%下降到46%(見(jiàn)圖表)。下降幅度最大的是共和黨女性選民(57%到41%)、非裔美國(guó)人(66%到42%)和沒(méi)有大學(xué)學(xué)位的共和黨選民(62%到52%)。

Mr Trump has also been losing ground in early polls for the Republican nomination in 2024. Several recent surveys have found him trailing Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, in a head-to-head matchup. One poll from Suffolk University in Boston found support for Mr DeSantis at 56%, a full 23 points ahead of Mr Trump. Other surveys disagree. One released by Morning Consult on December 11th shows Mr Trump 18 points ahead of Mr DeSantis. The Republican primary is 14 months away, so these polls are of little use in predicting what would happen in that contest. But they do show that the former president’s return is not as inevitable as once thought.

特朗普在2024年共和黨提名的早期民調(diào)中也一直處于下風(fēng)。最近的幾項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，他在正面對(duì)決中落后于佛羅里達(dá)州州長(zhǎng)羅恩·德桑蒂斯。波士頓薩?？舜髮W(xué)的一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查顯示，德桑蒂斯的支持率為56%，足足領(lǐng)先特朗普23個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。其他民意調(diào)查則不一致。Morning Consult在12月11日發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示，特朗普領(lǐng)先德桑蒂斯18個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。距離共和黨的初選還有14個(gè)月，因此這些民意調(diào)查對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)競(jìng)選結(jié)果幾乎沒(méi)有用處。但他們確實(shí)表明，這位前總統(tǒng)的回歸并不像人們?cè)?jīng)認(rèn)為的那樣必然會(huì)發(fā)生。

True, Mr Trump does not need all Republican primary voters to unite behind him in order to secure the nomination. He could win with a plurality. That is because the election rules adopted by many states’ Republican Party committees, which oversee the selection of the presidential candidate, grant all or a significant number of a state’s delegates to the national party convention to the winner of the statewide popular vote. That is how Mr Trump was able to amass a large lead in pledged delegates early in the contest in 2016, despite polling between 30% and 35% for most of February and March, when the earliest-voting states made their choice.

誠(chéng)然，特朗普不需要所有共和黨初選選民都團(tuán)結(jié)起來(lái)支持他，以確保獲得提名。他可以以多數(shù)票獲勝。這是因?yàn)樵S多州的共和黨委員會(huì)(負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)督總統(tǒng)候選人的選擇)所采用的選舉規(guī)則，將一個(gè)州參加全國(guó)黨代表大會(huì)的全部或相當(dāng)數(shù)量的代表(選舉人票)授予贏得全州普選的候選人。這就是特朗普能夠在2016年競(jìng)選初期在承諾代表人數(shù)上大幅領(lǐng)先的原因，盡管在最早投票的州做出選擇的2月和3月的大部分時(shí)間里，民意調(diào)查在30%到35%之間。

Though his fortunes are fading, Mr Trump may still have sufficient underlying support to repeat this trick. YouGov’s poll reveals that 38% of Republicans identify themselves as “maga” Republicans and 68% still rate Mr Trump “very” or “somewhat” favourably. If the rest of the party is unable to unite behind a challenger—as was the case in 2016 when Ted Cruz, a senator from Texas, John Kasich, then the governor of Ohio, and Marco Rubio, a senator from Florida, split the anti-Trump vote—he could consolidate enough delegates to clinch the nomination again. It is also possible, though unlikely, that the state party committees could change the delegation-selection rules before 2024.

盡管特朗普的運(yùn)氣正在變差，但他可能仍有足夠的潛在支持來(lái)重復(fù)這一伎倆。YouGov的民意調(diào)查顯示，38%的共和黨人認(rèn)為自己是支持“maga”(Make America great again)的共和黨人，68%的人仍然對(duì)特朗普“非?！被颉坝悬c(diǎn)”好感。如果黨內(nèi)其他人無(wú)法團(tuán)結(jié)起來(lái)支持一位挑戰(zhàn)者，就像2016年德克薩斯州參議員特德·克魯茲、時(shí)任俄亥俄州州長(zhǎng)約翰·卡西奇和佛羅里達(dá)州參議員馬可·盧比奧拉平反對(duì)特朗普選票的情況一樣，他可能會(huì)鞏固足夠多的代表票數(shù)，再次獲得提名。雖然不太可能，但州黨委也有可能在2024年之前改變代表團(tuán)選拔規(guī)則。

A poor performance by Republicans in this year’s midterms underlined Mr Trump’s political weaknesses. Most of the candidates for Congress that he endorsed did worse than expected and most of those running for statewide office lost. Any dispassionate observer reflecting on his performances in 2018, 2020 and 2022 will see that Mr Trump has now directly or indirectly lost key elections three times and never secured the votes of a majority of Americans (in 2016 the electoral college, not the people, put him in the White House). Most Americans long ago decided that it was time to move on. Republican voters may at last be deciding the same.

共和黨人在今年中期選舉中的糟糕表現(xiàn)凸顯了特朗普的政治弱點(diǎn)。他支持的大多數(shù)國(guó)會(huì)候選人表現(xiàn)不如預(yù)期，大多數(shù)競(jìng)選州級(jí)職位的人都失敗了。任何冷靜的觀察家回顧他在2018年、2020年和2022年的表現(xiàn)，都會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)特朗普現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)直接或間接地輸?shù)袅巳侮P(guān)鍵選舉，從來(lái)沒(méi)有獲得過(guò)大多數(shù)美國(guó)人的選票(2016年，是選舉人團(tuán)而不是人民把他送進(jìn)了白宮)。大多數(shù)美國(guó)人很久以前就決定是時(shí)候向前看了。共和黨選民可能最終也會(huì)做出同樣的決定。