By: Tao Steven Zheng （鄭濤）2021-07-22

原文英語＋中文翻譯

Socio-economic dynamics is a theory that aims to analyze and evaluate the underlying structure and mechanisms of a socio-economic system using mathematics, physics, philosophy, and psychology. For brevity, any socio-economic system will be called an Order. The Order is essentially the body of people, ideas, principles, institutions, and social fabric that are involved in constructing, developing, and maintaining the overarching “operating system” of a State. For an analogy, think of the State as the body, and the Order as the mind. The process of change from one Order to another Order is characterized by five major developmental stages:

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第1部分：秩序的階段

社會-經(jīng)濟(jì)動力學(xué)（socio-economic dynamics） 是應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)、物理、哲學(xué)、心理學(xué)來分析和評價社會-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)在結(jié)構(gòu)和機(jī)制的理論。簡而言之，任何社會經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)都被稱為秩序（Order）。秩序本質(zhì)上是人、思想、原則、制度和社會結(jié)構(gòu)的主體，這些人、思想、原則、制度和社會結(jié)構(gòu)參與了一個國家（State）的總體“操作系統(tǒng)”（operating system）的構(gòu)建、發(fā)展和維護(hù)。舉個比喻，把國家想象成身體，把秩序想象成心靈。從一個秩序到另一個秩序的轉(zhuǎn)變過程有五個發(fā)展階段：

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Stage 1: Establishment

Every Order begins with establishment. The establishment stage begins with certain powerful individuals (i.e. politicians, religious leaders, and business leaders, a.k.a “the oligarchs”) creating institutions that legitimize control over certain dimensions of the Order or even the entire Order (social, political, and economic). Once the powerful elite individuals has legitimately taken full control of all dimensions within the Order, the powerful elite succeed in monopolizing power. This is called power monopolization.

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第一階段：成立/奠定（Establishment）

每一個秩序都始于成立。成立階段始于某些有權(quán)勢的人（即政治家、宗教領(lǐng)袖和企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，又稱“寡頭們the oligarchs” ）創(chuàng)建的政治制度（institutions），使對秩序的某些方面（dimensions，直譯“維度”）甚至整個秩序（社會、政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)）的控制合法化。一旦強(qiáng)大的精英階層（寡頭們）把各體合法，然后完全控制了秩序中的所有方面，強(qiáng)大的寡頭們就成功地壟斷了權(quán)力。這就是所謂的權(quán)力壟斷（power monopolization）。

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Stage 2: Progression

Once the monopolization of power is in place, the Order is in position to develop. Development can move in two directions: upwards, which is called positive development or progression; and downwards, which is called negative development or regression. Ideally, the oligarchs want to move towards progressive development because the masses view such results as beneficial and motivational. Psychologically speaking, the people will perceive the oligarchs as competent leaders who deserve to rule them, thus further legitimizing their place in power. However, progression will eventually end, and the end of progress usually begins with inefficiencies that emerge from within the Order itself, or outside forces beyond the capabilities of the Order to control.

Note: If an establishment fails to make progress, the Order will usually skip Stage 3 and move to Stage 4.

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第二階段：進(jìn)展（Progression）

一旦權(quán)力壟斷到位，秩序就可以發(fā)展了。秩序可以朝兩個方向發(fā)展：向上，這被稱為正面發(fā)展（positive development）或進(jìn)步（progression）；向下，稱為負(fù)面發(fā)展（negative development）或退步（regression）。在理想情況下，寡頭們希望朝著進(jìn)步的方向發(fā)展，因?yàn)?strong>群眾（masses）認(rèn)為這樣的結(jié)果是有益的和有動力的。從心理上講，人民將把寡頭視為稱職的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，理應(yīng)統(tǒng)治他們，從而使他們的權(quán)力地位進(jìn)一步合法化。然而，進(jìn)步最終會結(jié)束，它通常以秩序內(nèi)部出現(xiàn)的低效或秩序無法控制的外部推動力開始逆轉(zhuǎn)。

注：如果一個秩序未能取得進(jìn)展，該秩序通常會跳過第三階段，轉(zhuǎn)入第四階段。

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Stage 3: Stagnation

Assuming that the Order has made tremendous progress since its inception, there will be a point in time where the rate of progress will begin to decline. This “inflection point” of positive development marks the end of what could have been perceived as infinite growth in the early phase, and the beginning of slowed growth. Mathematically speaking, this is the transition from the initial Malthusian growth pattern to a Logistic growth pattern later in the progression. This “l(fā)ate stage progress” loses momentum and eventually plateaus until it approaches zero real growth. This zero real growth is called stagnation. The starting point of this slowed process of development, the inflection point, marks the beginning of involution. Here, involution means that within any Order, there is a point in which internal and external complications (could be social, economic, most likely both) begins to put pressure on the Order and manifests inefficiencies that erode development. Such complications can be explained by excess population where 80% of the population is not very productive, a large-scale loss in faith of existing social and moral values, the upward distribution of wealth to the oligarchs, or fate-changing environmental damage beyond the control of those in power. One thing is for certain, every Order that ever existed has experienced involution, and consequently, socio-economic stagnation and collapse.

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第三階段：停滯（Stagnation）

假設(shè)該秩序自成立以來取得了巨大進(jìn)展，那么在某個時間點(diǎn)，進(jìn)展速度（rate of progress）將開始下降。這一正面發(fā)展的“拐點(diǎn)”（inflection point）標(biāo)志著本可以被視為早期無限增長階段的結(jié)束，以及增長放緩的開始。從數(shù)學(xué)上講，這是從最初的馬爾薩斯增長模式（Malthusian growth pattern）到后來的邏輯斯蒂增長模式（Logistic growth pattern）的轉(zhuǎn)變。這種“后期進(jìn)展”失去了動力，并最終停滯不前，直到接近零實(shí)際增長（zero real growth）。這種零實(shí)際增長被稱為停滯（stagnation）。這一緩慢發(fā)展過程的起點(diǎn)、拐點(diǎn)，標(biāo)志著內(nèi)卷化（involution）的開始。在這里，內(nèi)卷化意味著在任何秩序中，都有一個點(diǎn)，即內(nèi)部和外部的復(fù)雜因素（可能是社會的、經(jīng)濟(jì)的，很可能是兩者兼而有之）開始對秩序施加壓力，并表現(xiàn)出侵蝕發(fā)展的低效。這種復(fù)雜情況可以解釋為人口過剩，即80%的人口生產(chǎn)力不高，對現(xiàn)有社會和道德價值觀的信仰大規(guī)模喪失，財富向上分配給寡頭，或者改變命運(yùn)的環(huán)境破壞超出了當(dāng)權(quán)者的控制。有一個論點(diǎn)是肯定的，所有曾經(jīng)存在的秩序都經(jīng)歷過內(nèi)卷化，從而導(dǎo)致社會經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯，并走向崩潰。

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Stage 4: Regression

What marks the end of stagnation is a turning point that guides the Order towards the downward path of regression. Regression is characterized by the corruption and decaying of institutions, the decrease in material wealth among the majority of the population, and the self-destructive behaviours at the Individual level to eventually the State level. Both existential crises is best captured by the term anomie, a term coined by French sociologist Emile Durkheim (1858–1917) to explain the uprooting or breakdown of moral values, standards, or guidance that once held society together. In other words, people lose faith in the Order and give up on society, opting to flight or fight. When an Order regresses to this stage, it will collapse. This eventual collapse of an Order has many possible causes and more than one potential outcomes.

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第四階段：退步（Regression）

標(biāo)志著停滯結(jié)束的是一個轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，它引導(dǎo)著向下的退步（regression）發(fā)展道路。退步的特點(diǎn)是機(jī)構(gòu)腐敗和衰敗，大多數(shù)人口財富購買力減少，以及個人層次（Individual level）到最終達(dá)到國家層次（State level）的自我毀滅行為。這兩個存在危機(jī)都最好用道德失范（anomie）這個詞來解釋。道德失范這個詞是法國社會學(xué)家埃米爾·迪爾凱姆（Emile Durkheim，1858-1917）首創(chuàng)的，用來解釋道德價值觀、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或指導(dǎo)原則的被拔除或瓦解。換句話說，人們對秩序失去信心，放棄社會，只能選擇逃避或斗爭（flight or fight）。當(dāng)一個秩序退步到這個階段時，它將會崩潰。秩序崩潰有許多因素，不止一個潛在的結(jié)果。

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Stage 5: Collapse and Post-Collapse

When the Order collapses, all hell breaks loose and chaos ensues. There will be a lot of deaths, a lot of looting, and bellicose displays of protest and violence. The protest and violence could be caused by a civilian uprising or a coup, or it could be caused by foreign influences such as a military invasion by outsiders. Historically, many civilizations called these outsiders “barbarians”. When one Order shifts to another Order, the process is called evolution. The new Order adapts to the current conditions and adopts a socio-economic system most appropriate for monopolizing power.

Here is a list of potential outcomes of Order collapse:

(1)? Invasion: Foreigners take the opportunity to strike an invasion when the Order is at its weakest point. The invaders hope to conquer and install their institutions so they can assimilate (subjugate and convert) the conquered people into their culture. Example: Rome being invaded by Hunnic and Germanic tribes.

(2)? Fragmentation: This is when two or more “strongmen” warlords who vie for their share of what power is left for grabs from the collapsed Order. Multiple Orders or multi-polar Orders will be established, some are Revolutionary movements; others are reactionary movements. Revolutionary movements replaces the previous Order with a more modern socio-economic system. Example: Democratic republic ---> Technocracy. Reactionary movements replaces the previous Order with a more archaic “old-school” socio-economic system. Example: Democratic republic ---> Theocracy.

(3)? Revolution: When the people find it impossible to survive under a given Order, they will opt to revolt out of discontent, and demand a change in Order. Zealous Revolutionaries will slaughter anyone who opposes their ideological path (including the oligarchs) in hope of overthrowing the corrupted Order. If the Revolution is successful, a new Order will be established (see Stage 1). Example: Tsarist Russia ---> Soviet Union.

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第五階段：崩潰與崩潰后（Collapse and Post-Collapse）

當(dāng)秩序崩潰的時候，所有事情好像天都塌下來了，混亂隨之而來。將會有大量的死亡，大量的搶劫，以及惡劣的抗議和暴力行為?？棺h和暴力可能是由平民起義或政變引起的，也可能是外來勢力的影響，如外來勢力的軍事入侵。歷史上，許多文明稱這些外來者為“野蠻人”。當(dāng)一個秩序轉(zhuǎn)化成另一個秩序時，這個過程就叫作演化（evolution）。取代原秩序的新秩序會考慮現(xiàn)狀條件，采取最適合壟斷權(quán)力的社會-經(jīng)濟(jì)制度。

以下列出秩序崩潰后的幾種潛在后果：

（1） 侵入（invasion）：外國人趁機(jī)在秩序最薄弱的時候攻擊。他們希望征服之后能建立他們的制度，建立他們的秩序，令被征服的人融入他們的文化。例子：羅馬帝國被匈奴、日耳曼人侵入。

（2） 分裂（fragmentation）：當(dāng)一個秩序崩潰，緊接著是兩個或兩個以上“強(qiáng)人”軍閥管控。這些軍閥爭奪秩序前剩下的部分之后會建立多元秩序（multi-polar order）。有的是革命派（Revolutionary movements）的，有的是反動派（reactionary movements）的。革命派推翻了前秩序之后，取代的是比較現(xiàn)代化的社會-經(jīng)濟(jì)制度。例如：民主共和國 ---> 技術(shù)專家政體。反動派推翻了前秩序之后，取代的是更古老的社會-經(jīng)濟(jì)制度。例如：民主共和國 ---> 神權(quán)政體。

（3）革命（Revolution）：當(dāng)人民發(fā)現(xiàn)在本秩序下已經(jīng)無法生存時，他們會選擇因?yàn)椴粷M而起義，要求改變秩序?？駸岬母锩邥罋⑷魏畏磳λ麄円庾R形態(tài)道義上的人（包括寡頭）來推翻腐敗的秩序。如果革命成功的話，革命者會建立一個新秩序（見第一階段）。例如：沙皇俄羅斯 ---> 蘇聯(lián)。