Journal of the European Economic Association?2023年第2期

Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

Endogenous Lemon Markets: Risky Choices and Adverse Selection

內(nèi)生檸檬市場(chǎng):風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇和逆向選擇

Avi Lichtig,?Ran Weksler

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 413–454,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac041

Abstract

The severity of adverse selection depends, to a great extent, on the underlying distribution of the asset. This distribution is commonly modeled as exogenous; however, in many real-world applications, it is determined endogenously. A natural question in this context is whether one can predict the severity of the adverse selection problem in such environments. In this paper, we study a bilateral trade model in which the distribution of the asset is affected by pre-trade unobservable actions of the seller. Analyzing general trade mechanisms, we show that the seller’s actions are characterized by a risk-seeking disposition. In addition, we show that (location-independent) riskier underlying distributions of the asset induce lower social welfare. That is, “l(fā)emon markets” arise endogenously in these environments.

逆向選擇的嚴(yán)重程度在很大程度上取決于資產(chǎn)的基礎(chǔ)分布。這種分布通常被建模為外生的;然而，在許多實(shí)際應(yīng)用中，它是內(nèi)生決定的。在這種情況下，一個(gè)自然的問(wèn)題是，在這樣的環(huán)境中，人們能否預(yù)測(cè)逆向選擇問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性。本文研究了賣方交易前不可觀察行為影響資產(chǎn)分配的雙邊交易模型。通過(guò)對(duì)一般貿(mào)易機(jī)制的分析，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)賣方的行為具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)尋求傾向。此外，我們還表明(與位置無(wú)關(guān))風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)分配會(huì)導(dǎo)致較低的社會(huì)福利。也就是說(shuō)，“檸檬市場(chǎng)”是在這些環(huán)境中內(nèi)生產(chǎn)生的。

European Firm Concentration and Aggregate Productivity

歐洲企業(yè)集中度與總生產(chǎn)率

Tommaso Bighelli,?Filippo di Mauro,?Marc J Melitz,?Matthias Mertens

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 455–483,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac040

This paper derives a European Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index from 15 micro-aggregated country datasets. In the last decade, European concentration rose due to a reallocation of economic activity toward large and concentrated industries. Over the same period, productivity gains from an increasing allocative efficiency of the European market accounted for 50% of European productivity growth while markups stayed constant. Using country-industry variation, we show that changes in concentration are positively associated with changes in productivity and allocative efficiency. This holds across most sectors and countries and supports the notion that rising concentration in Europe reflects a more efficient market environment rather than weak competition and rising market power.

本文從15個(gè)微聚合國(guó)家數(shù)據(jù)集推導(dǎo)出歐洲Herfindahl-Hirschman濃度指數(shù)。在過(guò)去十年中，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)向大型和集中行業(yè)的重新分配，歐洲的集中度上升。在同一時(shí)期，歐洲市場(chǎng)配置效率提高帶來(lái)的生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)占?xì)W洲生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的50%，而加成保持不變。利用國(guó)家-行業(yè)差異，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)集中度的變化與生產(chǎn)率和配置效率的變化呈正相關(guān)。這在大多數(shù)行業(yè)和國(guó)家都成立，并支持了這樣一種觀點(diǎn):歐洲集中度的提高反映了一個(gè)更有效的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境，而不是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)疲軟和市場(chǎng)力量的增強(qiáng)。

Firms and Collective Reputation: a Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal

企業(yè)與集體聲譽(yù):大眾汽車尾氣排放丑聞研究

Rüdiger Bachmann,?Gabriel Ehrlich,?Ying Fan,?Dimitrije Ruzic,?Benjamin Leard

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 484–525,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac046

Abstract

This paper uses the 2015 Volkswagen (VW) emissions scandal as a natural experiment to provide evidence that collective reputation externalities are economically significant. Using a combination of difference-in-differences and demand estimation approaches, we document a spillover effect from the scandal to the non-VW German auto manufacturers. The spillover amounts to an average drop of $2,057 in consumer valuations of these manufacturers’ vehicles and a 34.6% reduction in their annual sales. We substantiate our interpretation that the estimates reflect a reputation spillover using data on internet search behavior and direct measures of consumer sentiment from Twitter.

本文以2015年大眾汽車(Volkswagen)排放丑聞為自然實(shí)驗(yàn)，證明集體聲譽(yù)外部性在經(jīng)濟(jì)上具有重要意義。結(jié)合使用差異中的差異和需求估計(jì)方法，我們記錄了丑聞對(duì)非大眾德國(guó)汽車制造商的溢出效應(yīng)。溢出效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者對(duì)這些制造商汽車的估值平均下降2057美元，年銷售額下降34.6%。我們通過(guò)使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)搜索行為數(shù)據(jù)和Twitter消費(fèi)者情緒的直接測(cè)量來(lái)證實(shí)我們的解釋，即估計(jì)反映了聲譽(yù)溢出效應(yīng)。

Housing Insecurity and Homelessness: Evidence from the United Kingdom

住房不安全和無(wú)家可歸:來(lái)自英國(guó)的證據(jù)

Thiemo Fetzer,?Srinjoy Sen,?Pedro C L Souza

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 526–559,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac055

Abstract

Homelessness and precarious living conditions are on the rise across much of the Western world. This paper exploits quasi-exogenous variation in the affordability of rents due to a cut in rent subsidies for low-income households in the United Kingdom in April 2011. Using comprehensive district-level administrative data, we show that the affordability shock caused a significant increase in financial distress, evictions, property crimes, insecure temporary housing arrangements, statutory homelessness, and actual rough sleeping. The most notable rise in statutory homelessness is driven by families with children, lone parents, individuals with existing health conditions, and as a result of having been evicted. We estimate that the fiscal savings were low and shifted toward the local administration: Savings by the central government were partially offset by an increase in council spending to meet statutory obligations for homelessness.

在西方世界的大部分地區(qū)，無(wú)家可歸者和不穩(wěn)定的生活條件正在上升。本文利用2011年4月英國(guó)對(duì)低收入家庭的租金補(bǔ)貼削減導(dǎo)致的租金負(fù)擔(dān)能力的準(zhǔn)外生變化。利用綜合區(qū)級(jí)行政數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，負(fù)擔(dān)能力沖擊導(dǎo)致財(cái)務(wù)困境、驅(qū)逐、財(cái)產(chǎn)犯罪、不安全的臨時(shí)住房安排、法定無(wú)家可歸者和實(shí)際露宿的情況顯著增加。法定無(wú)家可歸者人數(shù)最顯著的增加是由有孩子的家庭、單身父母、有健康問(wèn)題的個(gè)人以及被驅(qū)逐的結(jié)果造成的。我們估計(jì)，財(cái)政儲(chǔ)蓄很低，并轉(zhuǎn)移到地方政府:中央政府的儲(chǔ)蓄部分被地方政府為滿足無(wú)家可歸者的法定義務(wù)而增加的支出所抵消。

Inattentive Inference

粗心的推理

Thomas Graeber

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 560–592,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac052

Abstract

This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning from a customer review about a product’s quality requires accounting for the reviewer’s otherwise-irrelevant taste. This creates an attribution problem common to all information structures with multiple causes. We report controlled experimental evidence for pervasive overinference about states that affect utility—a form of “omitted variable bias” in belief updating, providing an explanation for various misattribution patterns. In studying why systematic misattribution arises, we consistently find that errors are not due to deliberate effort avoidance or a lack of cognitive capacity. Instead, people behave as if they form incomplete mental models of the information structure and fail to notice the need to account for alternative causes. These mental models are not stable but context-dependent: Misattribution responds to a variety of attentional manipulations, but not to changes in the costs of inattention.

本文研究了人們?nèi)绾螐陌~外的、與收益無(wú)關(guān)的狀態(tài)的信息結(jié)構(gòu)中推斷世界的狀態(tài)。例如，從客戶的評(píng)論中了解產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量，就需要考慮評(píng)論者的其他無(wú)關(guān)的口味。這就產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)歸因問(wèn)題，對(duì)于所有具有多種原因的信息結(jié)構(gòu)都是如此。我們報(bào)告了關(guān)于影響效用的狀態(tài)的普遍過(guò)度推斷的受控實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)——信念更新中的一種“省略變量偏差”形式，為各種錯(cuò)誤歸因模式提供了解釋。在研究為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性錯(cuò)誤歸因的過(guò)程中，我們始終發(fā)現(xiàn)錯(cuò)誤不是由于故意的努力避免或缺乏認(rèn)知能力。相反，人們表現(xiàn)得好像他們對(duì)信息結(jié)構(gòu)形成了不完整的心智模型，沒(méi)有注意到需要解釋其他原因。這些心理模型并不穩(wěn)定，而是依賴于環(huán)境:錯(cuò)誤歸因?qū)Ω鞣N注意力操作有反應(yīng)，但對(duì)注意力不集中成本的變化沒(méi)有反應(yīng)。

Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle

投資基金、貨幣政策與全球金融周期

Christoph Kaufmann

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 593–636,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac043

Abstract

This paper examines the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio flows from investors actively searching for yield on financial markets worldwide gained importance during the post-crisis “second phase of global liquidity”. The analysis presented in this paper shows that a loosening of US monetary policy leads to higher investment fund inflows to equities and debt globally. Focussing on the euro area, these inflows not only imply elevated asset prices but also coincide with increased debt and equity issuance. The findings demonstrate the growing importance of non-bank financial intermediation over the past decade and hold important policy implications for monetary and financial stability.

本文利用結(jié)構(gòu)貝葉斯向量自回歸研究了國(guó)際投資基金在全球金融狀況向歐元區(qū)傳導(dǎo)中的作用。盡管在全球金融危機(jī)之后，跨境銀行業(yè)資本流動(dòng)顯著減少，但在危機(jī)后的“全球流動(dòng)性第二階段”，來(lái)自積極尋求全球金融市場(chǎng)收益的投資者的投資組合流動(dòng)變得越來(lái)越重要。本文的分析顯示，美國(guó)貨幣政策的放松，將導(dǎo)致更多投資資金流入全球股市和債市。集中在歐元區(qū)，這些資金流入不僅意味著資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲，而且還伴隨著債券和股票發(fā)行的增加。研究結(jié)果表明，非銀行金融中介在過(guò)去十年中日益重要，并對(duì)貨幣和金融穩(wěn)定具有重要的政策意義。

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity

實(shí)際匯率、創(chuàng)新和生產(chǎn)率

Laura Alfaro,?Alejandro Cu?at,?Harald Fadinger,?Yanping Liu

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 637–689,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac058

Abstract

We build a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which real depreciations raise export demand and the cost of importing intermediates, and also affect borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in research and development (R&D). A number of stylized facts on manufacturing firms for a large set of countries discipline our estimation: Firms in emerging East Asia are very export oriented and rely little on imported intermediates, whereas the opposite holds for Latin America and Eastern Europe; firms from industrialized countries export as much as they import. Exporters experience an increase in cash flow, R&D, and productivity growth in response to real exchange rate (RER) depreciations; importers experience the opposite outcomes. In counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements, the effects on innovation and productivity growth are heterogeneous across regions, sizeable and persistent. In emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with higher probabilities to engage in R&D, faster growth of average firm-level productivity and cash flow, and higher export entry rates; we find negative average effects on these outcomes for firms in other emerging economies, and no significant average effects for firms in industrialized economies.、

我們構(gòu)建了一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)異質(zhì)企業(yè)模型，在該模型中，實(shí)際貶值會(huì)提高出口需求和進(jìn)口中間產(chǎn)品的成本，并影響借貸約束和從事研發(fā)(R&D)的盈利能力。大量國(guó)家制造業(yè)企業(yè)的程式化事實(shí)約束了我們的估計(jì):新興東亞的企業(yè)非常以出口為導(dǎo)向，很少依賴進(jìn)口中間體，而拉丁美洲和東歐則相反;工業(yè)化國(guó)家的公司出口和進(jìn)口一樣多。由于實(shí)際匯率(RER)貶值，出口商經(jīng)歷了現(xiàn)金流、研發(fā)和生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的增加;進(jìn)口商經(jīng)歷了相反的結(jié)果。在對(duì)臨時(shí)RER運(yùn)動(dòng)的反事實(shí)模擬中，對(duì)創(chuàng)新和生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的影響在不同地區(qū)是不同的，相當(dāng)大且持續(xù)。在亞洲新興市場(chǎng)，實(shí)際貶值與更高的研發(fā)概率、企業(yè)平均生產(chǎn)率和現(xiàn)金流的更快增長(zhǎng)以及更高的出口進(jìn)入率相關(guān);我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，對(duì)其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，這些結(jié)果的平均影響是負(fù)面的，而對(duì)工業(yè)化經(jīng)濟(jì)體的企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，沒(méi)有顯著的平均影響。

City of Dreams

理想之城

Jorge De la Roca,?Gianmarco I P Ottaviano,?Diego Puga

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 690–726,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac042

Abstract

Bigger cities offer more valuable experiences and opportunities in exchange for higher housing costs. While higher-ability workers benefit more from bigger cities, they are not more likely to move to one. Our model of urban sorting by workers with heterogeneous self-confidence and ability suggests flawed self-assessment is partly to blame. Analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data shows that, consistent with our model, young workers with high self-confidence are more likely to locate in a big city initially. For more experienced workers, ability plays a stronger role in determining location choices, but the lasting impact of earlier choices dampens their incentives to move.

較大的城市提供更多有價(jià)值的體驗(yàn)和機(jī)會(huì)，以換取更高的住房成本。盡管能力更高的工人從大城市中受益更多，但他們并不太可能搬到大城市去。我們的模型顯示，自信和能力各不相同的工人在城市進(jìn)行分類，這在一定程度上要?dú)w咎于有缺陷的自我評(píng)估。對(duì)1979年全國(guó)青年縱向調(diào)查(National Longitudinal Survey of Youth)數(shù)據(jù)的分析表明，與我們的模型一致，自信心高的年輕工作者最初更有可能在大城市安家。對(duì)于經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的員工來(lái)說(shuō)，能力在決定地點(diǎn)選擇方面發(fā)揮了更大的作用，但早期選擇的持久影響會(huì)抑制他們搬家的動(dòng)機(jī)。

Terrorism, Media Coverage, and Education: Evidence from al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya

恐怖主義、媒體報(bào)道和教育:來(lái)自肯尼亞青年黨襲擊的證據(jù)

Marco Alfano,?Joseph-Simon G?rlach

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 727–763,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac054

Abstract

We relate terrorist attacks to media signal coverage and schooling in Kenya to examine how terrorism alters the demand for education through perceived risks and returns. Exploiting variation in wireless signal coverage and attacks across space and time, we establish that media access reinforces negative effects of terrorism on schooling. Our results are robust to instrumenting both media signal and attacks. We also find that attacks raise self-reported fears for households with media access. Based on these insights, we estimate a simple structural model where heterogeneous households experiencing terrorism form beliefs about risks and returns to education. We allow these beliefs to be affected by media and find that households with media access significantly over-estimate fatality risks.

我們將恐怖襲擊與肯尼亞的媒體信號(hào)報(bào)道和學(xué)校教育聯(lián)系起來(lái)，以研究恐怖主義如何通過(guò)感知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)改變教育需求。利用無(wú)線信號(hào)覆蓋范圍的變化和跨越空間和時(shí)間的攻擊，我們確定了媒體訪問(wèn)加強(qiáng)了恐怖主義對(duì)學(xué)校教育的負(fù)面影響。我們的結(jié)果對(duì)于檢測(cè)媒體信號(hào)和攻擊都是穩(wěn)健的。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，對(duì)于有媒體接入的家庭來(lái)說(shuō)，攻擊引發(fā)了自我報(bào)告的恐懼?；谶@些見(jiàn)解，我們估計(jì)了一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的結(jié)構(gòu)模型，在這個(gè)模型中，經(jīng)歷恐怖主義的異質(zhì)家庭形成了對(duì)教育風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)的信念。我們?cè)试S這些信念受到媒體的影響，并發(fā)現(xiàn)有媒體接入的家庭顯著高估了死亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence

用選票代替子彈?選舉權(quán)法案對(duì)政治暴力的影響

Jean Lacroix

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2023, Pages 764–813,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac048

Abstract

The extension of voting rights epitomizes the construction of modern democracies. This paper empirically investigates the effect of such an enfranchisement on political violence in the context of the US Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965, which forbade discrimination in voting. The formula the VRA used to determine the counties it applied to generated both geographic and temporal local discontinuities in enfranchisement. This paper’s empirical strategy takes advantage of these features by comparing the evolution of political violence in geographically close covered and non-covered counties. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that VRA coverage halved the incidence and the onset of political violence. Additional empirical evidence implies that voting became the new institutionalized way to state political preferences. Indeed, VRA coverage mostly decreased electoral and small-scale strategic violence. This result is not explained by disaggrievement. Extensions suggest that new strategies of political action may explain a decrease in violence after enfranchisement.

投票權(quán)的擴(kuò)大是現(xiàn)代民主制度建設(shè)的縮影。本文以1965年禁止投票歧視的美國(guó)《投票權(quán)法案》(VRA)為背景，實(shí)證研究了這種選舉權(quán)對(duì)政治暴力的影響。VRA用來(lái)確定它所適用的縣的公式在選舉權(quán)分配中產(chǎn)生了地理和時(shí)間上的局部不連續(xù)性。本文的實(shí)證策略利用了這些特征，比較了地理上接近覆蓋縣和未覆蓋縣的政治暴力演變。差異中的差異估計(jì)表明，VRA的覆蓋使政治暴力的發(fā)生率和起發(fā)率減少了一半。額外的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)表明，投票成為新的制度化的方式，以說(shuō)明政治偏好。事實(shí)上，VRA的覆蓋范圍基本上減少了選舉和小規(guī)模戰(zhàn)略暴力。這一結(jié)果不能用不滿來(lái)解釋。延伸表明，新的政治行動(dòng)策略可能解釋了獲得選舉權(quán)后暴力事件的減少。