正文翻譯

Can India become a manufacturing superpower yet ? I contend that we have missed the bus on any realistic chances of such an outcome.

印度能成為制造業(yè)超級大國嗎? 我認為，我們已經錯過了實現這種結果的任何現實機會。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.cn 轉載請注明出處

Question: are you saying seriously that we cannot become a manufacturing power in the future?

問:你說我們未來不能成為制造大國，這是認真地嗎?

Answer: Yes, 3D printing, robotics and AI is taking over and we aren't investing in this.

答:是的，3D打印、機器人和人工智能正在接管（制造業(yè)），而我們并未在這方面投資。

We were 200 years late to the industrial revolution at independence. Nevertheless we had begun to build an industrial base under Nehru with steel, cement, fertilizer and other basic industrial capabilities. Then the planned economy of socialism put a stop to that. We lost 40 years of economic development . When we had the advantage of wage arbitrage, we squandered the opportunity to industrialize. At the time that China was industrializing, India was on a lower economic base and had the advantage of an English speaking workforce. We had the advantage. Today our wages may be marginally lower but our skill set is very low in comparison to even China.

我們獨立時，工業(yè)革命已過去了200年。盡管如此，在尼赫魯的領導下，我們已經開始建立一個擁有鋼鐵、水泥、化肥和其他基本工業(yè)能力的工業(yè)基礎。后來社會主義計劃經濟讓其中斷。我們失去了40年的經濟發(fā)展。當我們擁有工資套利的優(yōu)勢時，我們浪費了工業(yè)化的機會。當中國正在工業(yè)化時，印度的經濟基礎低下，然而擁有一個優(yōu)勢：勞動力說英語。我們有優(yōu)勢。今天我們的工資可能略低，但即使與中國相比，我們的技能都非常低。

The global workplace today is entirely merit and skill based.

如今的全球職場完全是基于能力和技能的。

An Indian student in high school today is not learning about robotics or playing with 3D printing or AI, at least not in your ordinary school. On the other hand, you have Indian children who have moved abroad, say, to the US, learning these skills at the same age in high school, and putting it to practical use. This is what is going to set them apart for the industrial economy of the future.

今天的印度高中生不會學習機器人技術，也不會玩3D打印或人工智能，至少在普通的學校里不會。另一方面，那些移居國外，比如美國的印度孩子，他們在同樣年齡的高中學習這些技能，并將其用于實際應用。這將使他們在未來的工業(yè)經濟中脫穎而出。

When the world in the pre-industrial times was purely based on physical strength, the difference between the strongest individual and the average individual was never more than one order of magnitude that is 10x. If the strongest person could lift 300 kilos, then the average person could lift at least 30 to 60 kilos whereas the strongest person would also eat five times as much, negating any advantage. However, once mechanical advantage and chemical advantage came into play, the person inventing the machine or industrial process was even a thousand times more valuable than an ordinary worker.

前工業(yè)時代的世界純粹以體力為基礎，最強壯的個體與普通個體之間的差距從來不會超過一個數量級，也就是10倍。如果最強壯的人能舉起300公斤，那么一般人至少能舉起30到60公斤，而最強壯的人也要吃5倍的飯，這就消滅了任何優(yōu)勢。然而，一旦機械優(yōu)勢和化學優(yōu)勢發(fā)揮作用，發(fā)明機器或工業(yè)過程的人的價值甚至是普通工人的一千倍。

If you went back a hundred years there was very little skilled requirement for holding a job. Somebody could become a general just because they were the prince of a state, and somebody could be given a job in a factory because their father worked there. Whereas with the technology of even the '80s you needed competence - you could not ask someone to run a lathe if they were not a trained machinist.

如果回到一百年前，對一份工作的技能要求非常低。有人可能僅僅因為他們是一個國家的王子，就成為將軍，有人可能因為他們的父親在工廠工作，就在工廠工作。然而，即使是80年代的技術，你也需要能力——如果一個人不是受過訓練的機械師，你就不能讓他開車床。

As these machines advanced the world has divided itself into two parts- the first part is low skilled people aided by smart technology and the second much smaller part is incredibly smart and well trained people operating or creating incredibly complex technology. Think of a swiggy driver or call center operator versus a Spacex engineer. This second section of people are going to create the real economic opportunities and industries of today and tomorrow.

隨著這些機器的進步，世界已經分成了兩部分——第一部分是得到智能技術幫助的低技能人群，第二部分是非常聰明和訓練有素的人，他們操作或創(chuàng)造了非常復雜的技術。想象一下外賣員或呼叫中心接線員，與Spacex的工程師的差別。第二部分人將在今天和明天創(chuàng)造真正的經濟機會和產業(yè)。

Skill is even more of a requirement today because not everyone can understand 3D printing, robotics, and machine learning. But Indian society is focused towards social equality and social advancement. Skill and merit is not being invested in as much as social justice is.

如今，技能更是一種要求，因為不是每個人都能理解3D打印、機器人和機器學習。但印度社會專注于社會平等和社會進步。人們對技能和價值的投入不如對社會公正的投入多。

Let us not be fooled by the success we had in creating an IT economy starting from the '90s . It is relatively cheap to learn web programming, digital art and other skills with the help of a PC and some software which can be pirated. On the other hand to learn robotics, 3D printing, etc. you need to invest in expensive labs that have dedicated technology. I think the cheapest 3D printer which is somewhat usable will cost at least one lakh rupees . This is a phase of industrialization that favors the richer countries.

我們不要被我們從90年代開始在創(chuàng)建IT經濟方面取得的成功所愚弄。在個人電腦和一些可以盜版的軟件的幫助下，學習網絡編程、數字藝術和其他技能相對便宜。另一方面，要想學習機器人，3D打印等，就需要投資昂貴的實驗室，有專門的技術。我認為最便宜的3D打印機至少要10萬盧比。這是一個有利于富裕國家的工業(yè)化階段。

So in short, India has once again missed the bus on the modern industrial revolution which is based on intelligent machines which need to be programmed.

簡而言之，印度再次錯過了現代工業(yè)革命的班車，而現代工業(yè)革命是基于需要編程的智能機器。

If not already, in about 5 to 10 years, it'll be too late because the advantage that the West will enjoy when it comes to industrial technology will simply not be able to be matched by other countries. As I said, the ratio of advantage when it was just physical strength was a maximum cap of 10 times. But with industrialization the advantage of machines was even greater, maybe a few thousand times. Now with the advantage of AI and robotics and 3D printing you are going to have an advantage of several million times.

如果現在還沒有，在大約5到10年內，就會為時已晚，因為西方在工業(yè)技術方面所享有的優(yōu)勢將根本無法被其他國家所匹敵。就像我說過的，只說體力方面的優(yōu)勢，比例上限是10倍。但隨著工業(yè)化，機器的優(yōu)勢更大，可能是幾千倍?，F在有了人工智能、機器人和3D打印的優(yōu)勢，這種優(yōu)勢將是數百萬倍。

You are already using a million times more powerful AI everyday when you search Google. It is impossible using any normal method of databases to retrieve search results as quickly as Google does. It is the AI engine that allows for instantaneous retri of results. So you could say Google is a million times more effective than a non AI powered search engine. These advantages cannot be easily competed against.

當你每天搜索谷歌時，你已經在使用強大了100萬倍的人工智能。使用任何正常的數據庫方法都不可能像谷歌那樣快速檢索和搜索結果。這就是允許即時檢索結果的AI引擎。所以可以說谷歌比非人工智能搜索引擎高效一百萬倍。這些優(yōu)勢是無法輕易與之競爭的。

In the 1940s learning stenography and typewriting guaranteed you a job for life. I just typed this entire wall of text using speech recognition on my phone.

在20世紀40年代，學習速記和打字可以保證你終身得到一份工作。而我剛剛用我手機上的語音識別打了可以布滿一面墻的文字。