I'm a financial economist.

我是一名金融經(jīng)濟學家。

And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.

我聽到科學家們?yōu)轹L魚的遭遇嘆息。

And I wanted to help.

我想幫忙。

I didn't know how to help.

但我不知道該怎么幫忙。

And I thought, wait a minute.

然后我想，等一下。

Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.

也許我可以把你們的信息傳達給世界。

Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us in a language that we can all understand.

也許我可以把這些工作的價值和鯨魚的貢獻翻譯成我們都能理解的語言。

Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.

不幸的是，這是金錢的語言。

So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things.

所以我?guī)ьI著團隊打算評估鯨魚行為的價值，但是只評估那么一方面，因為鯨魚會做很多很多事。

But I just wanted to value one thing, which is what is the value of their carbon sequestration service to us?

但是我只想評估一件事，即鯨魚的固碳行為對我們來說值多少錢？

Now how would you do something like that?

怎么評估呢？

After all, the whale is a living system.

鯨魚畢竟是一個活物。

The whale captures carbon on her body, and she gives birth to baby whales who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.

鯨魚把碳存在她的身體里，然后生了小鯨魚，小鯨魚長大了也會用身體捕獲碳。

And they give birth to whales and so forth, and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.

然后不斷繁衍生息，還會間接地通過滋養(yǎng)浮游生物的這一過程固碳。

So how would you do something like this?

那么怎么估值呢？

Well, to do that, I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.

要估值的話，我得發(fā)揮我的長項，也就是估價。

I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.

我看了看說，等一下。

This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.

它們就像是會分紅的股票。

Except those dividends are live dividends.

但是分紅是動態(tài)的。

They give birth to more dividends.

它們還會越滾越多。

So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime and keep track of all these dividends into the future,

如果我追蹤一條鯨魚的一生，記錄下所有分紅，直至終點，

and then multiply that by the price of carbon, and discount that all the way to the present, I can figure out what is the present value,

再乘以碳的價格，再將所有未來的分紅折現(xiàn)至當下，就可以得出目前的價值，

discounted present value, of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.

一條鯨魚一生創(chuàng)造的價值折現(xiàn)到現(xiàn)在的價值。

Would you like to know how much?

你們想知道是多少嗎？

Would you like to know how much?

你想知道是多少嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: At least three million dollars.

拉爾夫·沙米：至少三百萬美元。

At least.

還只是“至少”。

Because I'm leaving so much out of this.

因為我舍去了很多。

But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.

但是我只是想分享我在那艘船上聽到的好消息。

I didn't know what to do.

我不知道該做些什么。

I was trying to help them out.

我只是想幫幫它們。

But there's more good news.

但還有更多的好消息。

Would you like to hear it?

你想聽聽嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa, in the Congo Basin, they do the same thing.

沙米：它們在陸地上的遠親，非洲剛果盆地森林里的大象，也在做同樣的事。

Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop, they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests between seven and 14 percent.

事實證明，它們通過走路、進食、排泄的方式，使樹木中、森林里的碳捕獲量增加了7%至14%。

Just imagine, just by frolicking around, they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.

想象一下，它們只是在四處玩耍，就能幫我們從大氣中捕獲二氧化碳，解決這個問題。

So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.

所以我在想，也許我們也能為它們的行為估個價。

Right? Same thing.

對吧？一個道理。

But again, use the same model of valuation.

我們再次使用同樣的估值模型。

You follow the same methodology, and you discount all of that to the present.

使用同樣的方法，折現(xiàn)得出此時此刻的價值。

And you ask yourself, what is the value of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?

問問自己，一頭大象的固碳行為值多少錢？

Would you like to know how much?

你們想知道值多少嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: Here we go.

沙米：那我就告訴你們。

2.6 million dollars.

260萬美元。

Would you like to hear some more good news?

還想聽點別的好消息嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: Aside from forests -- because we are land people, we just think of forests -- go a little bit into the water.

沙米：除了森林——由于我們生活在陸地上，我們只會想到森林——我們再拓展一下，到水里去。

Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands,

海草、鹽沼紅樹林、海藻森林、泥炭地、

wetlands -- these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide beyond your imagination,

濕地——它們都是以超出想象的水平吸收二氧化碳的生物系統(tǒng)，

and they keep it forever in their roots as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.

它們把碳永久地封存在根系中，只要你去關愛它們，不去干涉它們。

So ... If you think these numbers are big,?

所以……如果你覺得數(shù)額不菲，

wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.

那你得聽聽我接下來要說的話。

In seagrass alone, seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.

單看海草，僅僅是海草的固碳效果。

How much do you think is the value of the global -- If you look at globally the seagrass and you value their carbon sequestration service,

你覺得全球的——放眼全球的海草，評估一下它們固碳的價值，

how much you think it's worth?

你覺得它們的貢獻值多少錢？

You ready?

準備好了嗎？

2.3 trillion dollars.

2.3萬億美元。

That's the size of the German stock market.

相當于德國股市的規(guī)模。

Now. What does this tell us?

那么，這意味著什么呢？

This tells us that a living and thriving nature is not only valuable intrinsically, it's also financially valuable to us.

這意味著生機勃勃的大自然不僅對它自身價值連城，對我們來說也價值連城。

Question is, what do you do with this?

問題是，你該做些什么呢？

So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.

科學為我們展現(xiàn)了地球之美。

We can value it in dollars and cents.

我們可以用金錢來衡量。

Question is, what are you going to do with it?

問題是，然后你該干什么呢？

Well, guess what?

你猜怎么著？

We can build a whole economy around a living and thriving nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

我們可以圍繞這生機勃勃的大自然建立一個完整的經(jīng)濟體系，不是向自然索取，而是幫助自然煥發(fā)生機。

And that economy --

而這種經(jīng)濟——

Thank you.

謝謝。

That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.

這個經(jīng)濟體系將為我們，為地球萬物，無論大小，帶來可持續(xù)的共同繁榮。

It does not have to be I win, you lose.

這不必是一場零和博弈。

It is a win-win.

這是一個雙贏的局面。

I'm going to show you how.

我來告訴你們怎么做。

From there we can build -- In order to build that economy, we need three things.

我們可以建設一個……要建立這個經(jīng)濟體系，需要三樣東西。

We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.

我們需要科學，也就是計算，嚴謹?shù)挠嬎愎ぷ鳌?/p>

What is it that you have?

你有什么？

How much of it do you have?

你有多少？

Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say, "What is the value of what you have?"

然后第二步就是像我這樣的金融經(jīng)濟學家過來說道：“你持有的東西值多少錢？”

The reason we value it is just to basically translate it into the language that policymakers can understand so they can make decisions.

我們之所以要估價，只是為了把它翻譯成政策制定者可以理解的語言，然后他們才能做出決定。

That's all.

就這樣。

It's a translation.

只是“翻譯”而已。

But then the third pillar is very important, which is the legal framing.

第三個關鍵部分也非常重要，即法律體系。

The legal framing is very important because we need to protect the rights of nature, a living and thriving nature.

法律體系非常重要，因為我們需要保護大自然的權利，我們生機勃勃的大自然。

Three things.

三件事。

Once you do these three things, you can create markets around nature.

一旦你做到了這三件事，你就可以創(chuàng)造許多圍繞大自然的市場。

When I say markets around nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

我指的“圍繞大自然的市場”，不是向自然界索取，而是幫助大自然煥發(fā)新生。

And I'm going to show you how.

我要告訴你如何做到這點。

I'm going to show you how.

我要告訴你怎么做到這點。

Gabon has 57,000 elephants.

加蓬有57000頭大象。

If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.

如果不加以干涉，可以繁衍至195000頭大象。

Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.

加蓬可以出售大象的碳補償價值。

Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees -- they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.

想象一下，這些大象會從樹中吸收碳，加蓬就可以出售這個過程的價值。

To whom?

賣給誰呢？

To us because we're all enamored with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

賣給我們，因為我們都執(zhí)著于達成零碳、負碳排放、碳中和。

And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.

我們的錢能讓大象得以世世代代繁衍生息。

OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?

怎么樣？那加蓬能賺多少錢呢？

One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely, not be tied to anything, just by leaving them alone.

加蓬每年能賺到10億美元，需要做的只是讓大象自由活動，不對大象加以任何限制，不作任何干涉。

Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop, just being, having babies, doing whatever they do, they help carbon sequestration in the forests.

而這些大象只要進食、排泄、生活、繁殖、為所欲為，就能完成森林里的固碳過程。

A forest without animals is dead.

沒有動物的森林是死氣沉沉的。

It's not about flora.

森林不只是植物。

It's about flora and fauna.

森林是植物與動物。

It's about nature itself.

它是大自然自身。

That's what the message is.

這就是我要傳達的信息。

Who would buy these carbon offsets?

誰會購買這些碳補償價值呢？

All these companies and countries that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

所有承諾達成零碳、負碳排放、碳中和的公司、國家都會購買。

They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.

它們會購買這些碳補償價值，或者說碳信用。

The money would flow in from these ecosystem services -- be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh --?

資金會流入這些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)運作的過程，給予鯨魚、大象、紅樹林、海草、鹽沼——

and the money goes in by contract,

由合同規(guī)范資金的流入，

using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity -- very important -- and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.

利用區(qū)塊鏈技術永久地照顧大自然，這點非常重要，也能永久地照顧大自然的“管理員”。

And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.

大自然的管理員是當?shù)氐耐林恕?/p>

They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.

他們才是真正進行保護工作的人，不是你，也不是我。

Once we do that -- Notice what it is.

我們一旦這么做了——看看效果吧。

It's a win for nature.

這是大自然的勝利。

It's a win for the economy.

這對經(jīng)濟來說是一場勝利。

The government will make money because the government is going to get all that revenue.

政府能賺到錢，因為這些收入都歸了政府。

It will change its fiscal stance.

這會改變財政態(tài)勢。

It will diversify its economy.

它將讓經(jīng)濟更加多元。

It will grow in a sustainable way.

它將更可持續(xù)地增長。

It's a win for the environment.

這對環(huán)境來說是一場勝利。

It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.

這對所有飽受我們折磨的生物有利。

It's a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.

對于我們這個美麗的地球來說，這是一場勝利。

As Carl Sagan once said, "The only Earth we'll ever know.

正如卡爾·薩根曾經(jīng)說過的：“我們唯一的地球，

The only home we'll ever know."

也是我們唯一的家園?！?/p>

It's a win for us.

這對我們來說是一場勝利。

We are taking this work in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.

我們把這項在非洲進行的工作帶去了利比里亞、喀麥隆、肯尼亞、南非。

We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.

我們把這項工作帶去了美洲、智利、阿根廷。

We're doing it in the US and in the UK.

我們也在美國、英國進行這項工作。

Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.

想象一下，一切始于我想看到藍鯨的那個愿望。

Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision of how we ought to live for tomorrow.

我未曾想到這會孕育出對未來生存方式的暢想。