Journal of the European Economic Association2023年第1期

Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.On Risk and Time Pressure: When to Think and When to Do

風險與時間壓力:何時思考，何時行動

Christoph Carnehl,?Johannes Schneider

https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac027

We study the tradeoff between fundamental risk and time. A time-constrained agent has to solve a problem. She dynamically allocates effort between implementing a risky initial idea and exploring alternatives. Discovering an alternative implies progress that has to be converted to a solution. As time runs out, the chances of converting it in time shrink. We show that the agent may return to the initial idea after having left it in the past to explore alternatives. Our model helps explain so-called false starts. To finish fast, the agent delays exploring alternatives, reducing the overall success probability.

我們研究基本風險和時間之間的權衡。一個時間受限的代理必須解決一個問題。她動態(tài)地在實現(xiàn)一個有風險的初始想法和探索替代方案之間分配精力。發(fā)現(xiàn)替代方案意味著必須將進步轉化為解決方案。隨著時間的流逝，及時轉化的機會也越來越小。我們表明，智能體在離開最初的想法去探索替代方案后，可能會回到最初的想法。我們的模型有助于解釋所謂的錯誤開始。為了快速完成任務，代理會延遲探索替代方案，從而降低總體成功概率。

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2.The Supply of Skill and Endogenous Technical Change: Evidence from a College Expansion Reform?

技能供給與內生技術變革:來自一次高校擴招改革的證據

Pedro Carneiro,?Kai Liu,?Kjell G Salvanes

https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac032

We examine the labor market consequences of an exogenous increase in the supply of skilled labor in several municipalities in Norway, resulting from the construction of new colleges in the 1970s. We find that skilled wages increased as a response, suggesting that along with an increase in the supply there was also an increase in demand for skill. We also show that college openings led to an increase in the productivity of skilled labor and investments in R&D. Our findings are consistent with models of endogenous technical change where an abundance of skilled workers may encourage firms to adopt skill-complementary technologies.

我們研究了挪威幾個城市技術勞動力供給外生增加的勞動力市場后果，這是由于20世紀70年代新大學的建設造成的。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，熟練工人的工資隨之增加，這表明，隨著供給的增加，對技能的需求也會增加。我們還表明，大學的開設導致了技術勞動力生產率的提高和研發(fā)投資的增加。我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)與內生技術變化的模型一致，即大量的熟練工人可能會鼓勵企業(yè)采用技能互補技術。

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3.On the Other Side of the Fence: Property Rights and Productivity in the United States

在柵欄的另一邊:美國的財產權和生產力

Mathias Bühler

https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac029

Can well-defined access rights to publicly owned land be as effective as privatization in increasing productivity and wealth? In this paper, I evaluate the impact of public property rights using the 1934 Taylor Grazing Act, which determined secure access rights for ranchers to newly created, large grazing districts in the Western United States. Using satellite-based vegetation data, I exploit spatial discontinuities across grazing district boundaries and find that public lands with well-defined access rights for ranchers are at least 10% more productive than lands without. Immediately after establishing grazing districts, ranchers inside these districts held more cattle, and reported higher income and farm values than their counterparts outside. Despite ranchers being unable to invest in publicly owned lands, these magnitudes are similar to outright privatization. Instead, I argue that secure access rights resolve uncertainty around future usage and align the incentives of ranchers and regulators, thus incentivizing sustainable and profitable usage. I provide two results supporting this hypothesis: Areas with stronger pre-reform state capacity show larger increases in vegetation; and, monthly patterns on vegetation are consistent with the adoption of productivity-increasing fallowing practices. I investigate alternative explanations, and find no empirical support for differential initial productivity, negative spillovers, or systematic local manipulation of boundaries.

在提高生產率和財富方面，界定明確的公有土地使用權能否與私有化一樣有效?在本文中，我使用1934年的泰勒放牧法案來評估公共財產權的影響，該法案確定了牧場主在美國西部新創(chuàng)建的大型牧區(qū)的安全使用權。利用基于衛(wèi)星的植被數據，我利用牧區(qū)邊界的空間不連續(xù)性，發(fā)現(xiàn)對牧場主有明確使用權的公共土地的生產力至少比沒有明確使用權的土地高10%。在建立放牧區(qū)后，這些區(qū)域內的牧場主立即擁有更多的牛，并且報告的收入和農場價值高于外部的同行。盡管牧場主無法投資于公有土地，但這種規(guī)模與徹底的私有化類似。相反，我認為安全使用權解決了未來使用的不確定性，并協(xié)調了牧場主和監(jiān)管機構的激勵措施，從而激勵可持續(xù)和有利可圖的使用。我提供了兩個結果來支持這一假設:改革前國家能力較強的地區(qū)植被增長較大;而且，植被的月變化模式與采用提高生產力的休耕措施是一致的。我調查了不同的解釋，并沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)初始生產率差異、負溢出效應或系統(tǒng)的局部邊界操縱的實證支持。

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4.Behavioral Influence?

行為影響力

Christopher P Chambers,?Tugce Cuhadaroglu,?Yusufcan Masatlioglu

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 135–166,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac028

In the context of stochastic choice, we introduce an individual decision model that admits a cardinal notion of peer influence. The model presumes that individual choice is not only determined by idiosyncratic evaluations of alternatives but also by the influence of the observed behavior of others. We establish that the equilibrium defined by the model is unique, stable, and falsifiable. Moreover, the underlying preferences and influence parameters as well as the structure of the underlying network are uniquely identified from, arguably, limited data. The baseline model includes two individuals with conformity motives. Generalizations to multi-individual settings and negative interactions are also introduced and analyzed.

在隨機選擇的背景下，我們引入了一個個體決策模型，該模型承認同伴影響的基本概念。該模型假定，個人選擇不僅取決于對備選方案的特殊評估，還取決于觀察到的他人行為的影響。我們建立了由模型定義的均衡是唯一的、穩(wěn)定的和可證偽的。此外，潛在的偏好和影響參數以及潛在網絡的結構是從有限的數據中唯一確定的?；鶞誓Ｐ桶▋蓚€有從眾動機的個體。概括到多個人設置和消極的相互作用也被介紹和分析。

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5.Do Police Maximize Arrests or Minimize Crime? Evidence from Racial Profiling in U.S. Cities

警察是最大化逮捕還是最小化犯罪?來自美國城市種族定性的證據

Allison Stashko

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 167–214,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac039

It is difficult to identify sources of discrimination in police stop and search data. In part, this is due to uncertainty over the objective of discretionary police stops: Do officers aim to maximize arrests or to minimize crime? In this paper, I compare theoretical predictions implied by these two objectives to data from U.S. cities. Empirical evidence is consistent with a model of arrest maximization and inconsistent with a model of crime minimization. The findings support the validity of existing tests for discrimination that rely on the assumption that police officers maximize arrests.

在警察攔截和搜查數據中很難確定歧視的來源。在某種程度上，這是由于警察酌情攔截的目標不確定:警察的目標是最大限度地逮捕還是最大限度地減少犯罪?在本文中，我將這兩個目標所隱含的理論預測與來自美國城市的數據進行了比較。經驗證據與逮捕最大化模型相一致，與犯罪最小化模型不一致。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)支持了現(xiàn)有的歧視測試的有效性，這些測試依賴于警察最大限度地逮捕的假設。

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6.Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge

停止痛苦!經濟衰退和五旬節(jié)熱潮

Francisco Costa,?Angelo Marcantonio,?Rudi Rocha

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 215–250,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac034

This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. Regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carry out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. We, therefore, find that recessions led to the rise of religious fundamentalism in tandem with the transfer of political capital to elected Pentecostal leaders.

本文估計了經濟衰退對巴西五旬節(jié)派福音主義擴張的影響。更容易受到經濟困難影響的地區(qū)在五旬節(jié)派隸屬關系和與五旬節(jié)派教會有聯(lián)系的候選人在全國立法選舉中的投票份額方面都持續(xù)上升。一旦當選，這些政治家的議程就會更加強調對基本宗教原則敏感的問題。因此，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，經濟衰退導致了宗教原教旨主義的崛起，同時政治資本也轉移到了民選的五旬節(jié)派領袖身上。

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7.How European Markets Became Free: A Study of Institutional Drift

歐洲市場如何變得自由:制度漂移的研究

German Gutierrez,?Thomas Philippon

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 251–292,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac071

Over the past 20?years, Europe has deregulated many industries, protected consumer welfare, and created strongly independent regulators. These policies represent a stark departure from historical traditions in continental Europe. How and why did this turnaround happen? We build a political economy model of market regulation and we compare the design of national and supra-national regulators. We show that countries in a single market willingly promote a supranational regulator that enforces free markets beyond the preferences of any individual country. We test and confirm the predictions of the model. European institutions are indeed more independent and enforce competition more strongly than any individual country ever did. Countries with ex-ante weaker institutions benefit more from the delegation of competition policy to the EU level.

在過去20年里，歐洲放松了對許多行業(yè)的管制，保護了消費者福利，并建立了高度獨立的監(jiān)管機構。這些政策明顯背離了歐洲大陸的歷史傳統(tǒng)。這種轉變是如何發(fā)生的，為什么會發(fā)生?我們建立了一個市場監(jiān)管的政治經濟學模型，并比較了國家監(jiān)管機構和超國家監(jiān)管機構的設計。我們的研究表明，單一市場中的國家愿意推動一個超國家的監(jiān)管機構，在任何單個國家的偏好之外執(zhí)行自由市場。我們測試并確認了模型的預測。歐洲機構確實比以往任何一個國家都更獨立，也更有力地推動競爭。原先制度較弱的國家從將競爭政策下放到歐盟層面中受益更多。

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8.Monetary Policy and Sovereign Debt Sustainability

貨幣政策與主權債務可持續(xù)性

Samuel Hurtado,?Galo Nu?o,?Carlos Thomas

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 293–325,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac035

We analyze the consequences of monetary policy for sovereign debt sustainability and welfare in a model of a small open economy where the government issues long-term nominal debt without a commitment not to default on it or erode its real value through (costly) inflation. Inflation is a form of?partial default, one that is more state-contingent than outright default. This reduces the government’s incentives to default outright and hence enlarges the repayment region, compared to a regime in which debt cannot be inflated away. Moreover, inflation delivers sizable welfare gains in situations of sovereign debt stress, in which its benefits as a debt-stabilizing tool are larger. Over the longer run, however, the welfare gains from inflation are more modest, because the inflationary bias leads the government to create inflation also in situations in which it is less useful for debt-stabilization purposes.

我們在一個小型開放經濟模型中分析了貨幣政策對主權債務可持續(xù)性和福利的影響，在這個模型中，政府發(fā)行長期名義債務，但沒有承諾不違約或不通過(代價高昂的)通脹侵蝕其實際價值。通貨膨脹是部分違約的一種形式，與完全違約相比，它更有國家因素的影響。這降低了政府直接違約的動機，因此擴大了償還區(qū)域，而在這種情況下，債務無法通過通貨膨脹來消除。此外，在主權債務面臨壓力的情況下，通脹會帶來可觀的福利收益，在這種情況下，通脹作為穩(wěn)定債務的工具帶來的好處更大。然而，從長期來看，通貨膨脹帶來的福利收益是比較溫和的，因為通貨膨脹的偏見導致政府在不太有利于債務穩(wěn)定的情況下也會產生通貨膨脹。

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9.Search Frictions in International Goods Markets?

國際商品市場的搜索摩擦

Clémence Lenoir,?Julien Martin,?Isabelle Mejean

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 326–366,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac044

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This paper studies how frictions in the acquisition of new customers distort the allocation of activities across heterogeneous producers. We add bilateral search frictions in a Ricardian model of trade and use French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate search frictions faced by French exporters in foreign markets. Estimated coefficients display a strong degree of heterogeneity across countries and products that correlates with various proxies for information frictions. Markets with high estimated frictions are shown to display less dispersion in sales between high- and low-productivity firms, a consequence of the distortive impact of frictions. A counterfactual reduction in the level of search frictions significantly improves the efficiency of the selection process by pushing the least productive exporters out of the market while increasing export sales at the top of the productivity distribution.

本文研究了獲得新客戶的摩擦如何扭曲異質生產者之間的活動分配。我們在李嘉圖貿易模型中添加了雙邊搜索摩擦，并使用法國企業(yè)對企業(yè)的貿易數據來估計法國出口商在國外市場面臨的搜索摩擦。估計系數在不同國家和產品之間顯示出強烈的異質性，這與信息摩擦的各種代理相關。具有高摩擦估計的市場在高生產率企業(yè)和低生產率企業(yè)之間的銷售分散較小，這是摩擦的扭曲影響的結果。搜索摩擦水平的反事實降低，通過將生產率最低的出口商擠出市場，同時增加生產率分布頂端的出口銷售，顯著提高了選擇過程的效率。

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10.Can Distributed Intermittent Renewable Generation Reduce Future Grid Investments? Evidence from France

分布式間歇可再生能源發(fā)電能減少未來電網投資嗎?來自法國的證據

Nicolas Astier,?Ram Rajagopal,?Frank A Wolak

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 367–412,?https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac045

This paper estimates the relationship between investments in five distributed generation technologies and hourly net withdrawals from over 2,000?electricity distribution networks in France between 2005 and 2018. We find that investments in distributed wind and solar generation have little or no impact on the annual peak of hourly net withdrawals from the distribution grid, while investments in hydroelectric and thermal distributed generation significantly reduce it. An optimistic analysis of the impact of investments in battery storage suggests that high levels are required for distributed wind and solar to deliver similar reductions in the annual peak of hourly net withdrawals. Our results imply that public policies favoring distributed wind and solar generation over utility-scale generation cannot be rationalized by savings in future grid investments.

本文估計了2005年至2018年期間，法國對五種分布式發(fā)電技術的投資與2000多個配電網絡的小時凈取電量之間的關系。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，分布式風能和太陽能發(fā)電的投資對配電網每小時凈抽電量的年度峰值影響很小或沒有影響，而水力發(fā)電和熱分布式發(fā)電的投資則顯著降低了這一峰值。一項對電池存儲投資影響的樂觀分析表明，分布式風能和太陽能需要較高的水平，才能在每小時凈取電量的年度峰值上實現(xiàn)類似的降低。我們的研究結果表明，支持分布式風能和太陽能發(fā)電而不是公用事業(yè)規(guī)模發(fā)電的公共政策不能通過節(jié)省未來電網投資而合理化。

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