You could tell something was afoot on the swampy, sweltering evening of November 15th in Palm Beach. The bridge to Mar-a-Lago, the opulent resort where Donald Trump resides, was thronged with fans who draped themselves, despite the humidity, in “Make America Great Again” flags—ambling, praying, tailgating. Inside the former president’s palace something extraordinary was indeed happening, in front of a swankier crowd—an assemblage of suits with red baseball caps and evening dresses with pearls. Mr Trump was there to announce formally a decision that he had already hinted at over the past year: that he would be embarking on a revenge bid to take back the presidency in 2024.

11月15日，在棕櫚灘這個潮濕悶熱的夜晚，你可以感覺到有什么正在進行。通往唐納德·特朗普居住的豪華度假勝地海湖莊園的橋上擠滿了粉絲，盡管天氣潮濕，他們還是披著“讓美國再次偉大”的旗幟漫步、祈禱、跟車。在前總統(tǒng)的豪宅里，在一群更時髦的人面前（他們身著西裝，戴著紅色棒球帽，她們穿著綴有珍珠的晚禮服）確實發(fā)生了一些不尋常的事情。特朗普在那里正式宣布了一個他在過去一年里已經(jīng)暗示過的決定:他將發(fā)起報復(fù)行動，爭取在2024年奪回總統(tǒng)寶座。

Ever since he left the White House, shortly after the attempted insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, Mr Trump has been plotting a comeback. He managed to keep a tight leash on the party throughout the midterm elections, meddling in primaries to pick candidates who most fervently endorsed the lie that Democrats had stolen the presidential election. Having restored himself to the helm of the party, the former president was preparing to crow after November 8th when Republicans expected to sweep back to power.

自1月6日國會大廈暴動未遂后不久離開白宮以來，特朗普就一直在策劃卷土重來。他設(shè)法在整個中期選舉期間牢牢控制共和黨，干預(yù)初選，以挑選那些最熱衷于支持“民主黨竊取總統(tǒng)選舉結(jié)果”的謊言的候選人。這位前總統(tǒng)重新執(zhí)掌共和黨后，正準(zhǔn)備在11月8日共和黨有望重掌大權(quán)后自鳴得意。

That didn’t happen, however. The Senate remained in Democratic control, while Republicans scraped together the barest majority in the House of Representatives. The sycophants who ran in key races in the swing states of Arizona and Pennsylvania came up with naught. The performance was so sub-par that his advisers reportedly tried counselling him to delay the announcement. But contrition and humility are not Mr Trump’s thing. He simply took credit for the House flipping and blamed the bad results on other Republicans.

然而，這并沒有發(fā)生。參議院仍由民主黨控制，而共和黨在眾議院勉強獲得了多數(shù)席位。在搖擺州亞利桑那州和賓夕法尼亞州的關(guān)鍵競選中，馬屁精們一無所獲。表現(xiàn)非常糟糕，據(jù)報道，他的顧問試圖建議他推遲宣布這一消息。但懺悔和謙卑不是特朗普的風(fēng)格。他只是把眾議院的翻盤歸功于自己，并把糟糕的結(jié)果歸咎于其他共和黨人。

There was little new in the speech, which was largely a rehashing of the hour-long stemwinders he has been delivering at political rallies for the better part of the year. He took his usual delight in claiming that “now we are a nation in decline” and “a failing nation”, recapitulating the theme of “American carnage” from his inaugural address by describing “blood-soaked streets” in cities that are “cesspools of violent crimes” and the invasion of fentanyl-toting illegal immigrants. His policy recommendations remained the same, with some updates for new culture-war battles over critical race theory and transgender children, though in addition to old proposals he now wants to execute drug-dealers. Once again, only he alone could fix it.

他的演講幾乎沒有什么新意，基本上是在重復(fù)他今年大部分時間在政治集會上發(fā)表的長達一小時的長篇大論。他一如既往地津津樂道地宣稱“現(xiàn)在我們的國家正在衰落”和“我們的國家正在失敗”，通過描述城市“充滿血腥的街道”是“暴力犯罪的污水池”，他重申了他在就職演說中的“美國大屠殺”主題以及攜帶芬太尼的非法移民的入侵。他的政策建議保持不變，只是在批評種族理論和跨性別兒童等新的文化戰(zhàn)爭問題上做了一些更新，盡管除了舊的建議之外，他現(xiàn)在還想處決毒販。又一次，只有他一個人能解決。

But the fighting words were delivered with less verve. Perhaps the weight of the midterms embarrassment pressed down, or the mountain of legal inquiries, or the prospect of a two-year-long campaign. The light behind the eyes had dimmed. “I’m a victim, I will tell you,” he said in the most heartfelt portion of the speech.

但他的戰(zhàn)斗言辭卻缺乏斗志。也許是中期選舉的尷尬壓力，也許是堆積如山的法律調(diào)查，又或許是長達兩年的競選前景。他眼睛后面的光暗淡下來了。他在演講中最真誠的部分說道，“我要告訴你們，我是一個受害者?！?/p>

Mr Trump’s haste to re-enter the fray can be explained by two things. First, the Department of Justice is investigating whether or not he improperly took classified materials from the White House; the congressional January 6th committee has spent more than a year unravelling the effort to overturn the election result; prosecutors in Georgia are examining his exhortation to election officials to “find” enough votes for him to secure victory. Prosecuting a former president for this was already fraught and unprecedented, presenting difficult paths to trial and conviction. That he is also an active presidential candidate—with a good chance at winning his party’s nomination again, and, Democrats must admit, the general election, too—makes prosecution even harder.

特朗普匆忙重返戰(zhàn)場可以用兩件事來解釋。首先，司法部正在調(diào)查他是否以不當(dāng)方式從白宮拿走了機密材料; 1月6日國會暴亂特別調(diào)查委員會花了一年多的時間來瓦解推翻選舉結(jié)果的努力; 佐治亞州的檢察官正在調(diào)查他對選舉官員的敦促，即“找到”足夠多的選票，以確保他獲勝。為此起訴一位前總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)是一件令人擔(dān)憂且前所未有的事情，這給審判和定罪帶來了艱難的道路。此外，他還是一位活躍的總統(tǒng)候選人，很有可能再次贏得黨內(nèi)提名，民主黨人必須承認(rèn)，大選也是如此，這使得起訴更加困難。

But, more important, his tight hold over the party is starting to be questioned, with elites searching for a way out that does not endanger their chance of maintaining power. Previous periods of questioning have usually been prompted by some whopping scandal—the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape in the closing days of the 2016 election, the praising of white supremacists who rallied in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or the campaign to delegitimise elections that ended in the sacking of the Capitol. In all cases, these doubts eventually subsided because Republicans reasoned that the man won them elections, and they could not work out a way to do so without him.

但更重要的是，他對共和黨的嚴(yán)密控制正開始受到質(zhì)疑，精英們正在尋找一條不危及他們維持權(quán)力機會的出路。前幾次的質(zhì)疑通常是由一些令人震驚的丑聞引發(fā)的——2016年大選最后幾天《走進好萊塢》錄音帶的曝光，2017年對在弗吉尼亞州夏洛茨維爾集會的“白人至上主義者”的贊揚，或者以國會大廈被搶劫告終的取消選舉合法性的運動。在所有的案例中，這些質(zhì)疑最終都平息了，因為共和黨人認(rèn)為，是他為他們贏得了選舉，沒有他，他們無法找到解決辦法。

The midterms have called that into question. Mr Trump lost Republicans the House in his own midterm elections in 2018; he lost the presidential election in 2020; he almost single-handedly lost Republicans the Senate in the Georgia run-off elections held in 2021; and in 2022 he arguably kept the Senate in Democratic hands by boosting the campaigns of novice candidates. A morally compromised winner Republicans could live with; a morally compromised loser is less enticing.

中期選舉讓這一點受到了質(zhì)疑。2018年，特朗普在自己的中期選舉中讓共和黨失去了眾議院; 他在2020年的總統(tǒng)選舉中失敗; 在2021年舉行的佐治亞州決選中，他幾乎憑一己之力讓共和黨失去了參議院的席位; 2022年，他可以說是通過推動新手候選人的競選活動，讓參議院掌握在了民主黨人手中。一個道德敗壞的贏家，共和黨人可以接受;一個道德敗壞的失敗者就沒那么有吸引力了。

By declaring early Mr Trump hopes to freeze out his potential rivals to lead the party, such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia—both of whom the former president has already taken to sniping at. At his announcement speech at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trump had the grace to refrain from reiterating his criticisms of them (he had branded one “Ron DeSanctimonious” and criticised the other for having a Chinese-sounding surname). Perhaps that is why the former president did not appear to be having much fun. He has always relished the personality-bashing aspects of politics, and much less to the dull business of making federal policy.

通過提前宣布參選，特朗普希望將其潛在的黨內(nèi)競爭對手拒之門外，比如佛羅里達州州長羅恩?德桑蒂斯和弗吉尼亞州州長格倫?楊金，前總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)開始對這兩人冷嘲冷諷。在海湖莊園的宣布演講中，特朗普很有風(fēng)度，沒有重申他對他們的批評(他給其中一人貼上了“羅恩·道貌岸然者"的標(biāo)記，并批評另一人的姓氏聽起來像中文)。也許這就是為什么這位前總統(tǒng)似乎并沒有玩得很開心的原因。他一直津津樂道于政治中對人格的抨擊，而對制定聯(lián)邦政策這一枯燥乏味的事務(wù)則不甚感興趣。

He also avoided repeating his claims that the presidential election was stolen, save one passing insinuation that the X government had interfered to defeat him. If his advisers and speechwriters managed to keep him in check for one evening, they should not expect to do so over the two-year campaign for the presidency that now awaits them.

他也避免重復(fù)總統(tǒng)選舉結(jié)果被竊取的說法，除了有一次影射說X政府干預(yù)了他。如果他的顧問和演講稿撰寫人在一個晚上成功地控制住了他，他們就不應(yīng)該指望在等待他們的兩年總統(tǒng)競選中也能做到這一點。

Away from the presidential struggle, the midterm fallout is being felt in other ways. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican congressman who expected to be easily made Speaker of the House, secured such a small majority of seats that the truculent Freedom Caucus will be able to exact big concessions by threatening his removal.

除了總統(tǒng)競選斗爭，中期選舉的影響還體現(xiàn)在其他方面。共和黨國會議員凱文?麥卡錫原本有望輕松當(dāng)選眾議院議長，但他只獲得了如此小的多數(shù)席位，以至于好斗的眾議院自由黨團可以通過威脅罷免他來迫使他做出重大讓步。

In the Senate Mitch McConnell, the party’s minority leader, faced an unsuccessful challenge from Rick Scott, the senator from Florida. Although Mr Scott chaired the party committee in charge of ensuring a Senate majority, he blames Mr McConnell for the lacklustre result because he had expressed some displeasure at the Trumpian slate of candidates. Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the party since 2017, is also facing down a possible insurrection of her own. Even if all are ultimately unsuccessful, they reflect the anxieties of a party that must once again decide if the pact with Mr Trump is worth it.

在參議院，共和黨少數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇·麥康奈爾面臨來自佛羅里達州參議員里克·斯科特的挑戰(zhàn)，但沒有成功。盡管斯科特是負(fù)責(zé)確保參議院多數(shù)席位的黨派委員會主席，但他將平淡的結(jié)果歸咎于麥康奈爾，因為麥康奈爾對特朗普式的候選人名單表達了一些不滿。自2017年以來一直擔(dān)任共和黨全國委員會主席的羅娜·麥克丹尼爾也面臨著一場可能的黨內(nèi)叛亂。即使所有這些最終都以失敗告終，它們也反映出一個政黨的焦慮，它必須再次決定與特朗普勾結(jié)是否值得。

Time and time again, the elected Republicans have balked when presented with opportunities to distance themselves from Mr Trump. The next few months will offer another one. At the moment, other contenders, including Trump administration officials like the former vice-president Mike Pence, who just released a memoir somewhat critical of his boss, are jostling for position but are unlikely to immediately declare their candidacies. Mr DeSantis would probably wait until after the Florida legislative session ends in May. Being the only major declared candidate might give Mr Trump the opportunity to consolidate slipping support within the party. It might also leave him the one most exposed to attacks from within. “The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Mr Trump warned in his speech. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.” This sense of apocalyptic anxiety is widely shared.

當(dāng)選的共和黨人一次又一次在與特朗普保持距離的機會面前退縮。接下來的幾個月還會有另一場。目前，其他競爭者，包括前副總統(tǒng)邁克·彭斯等特朗普政府官員，正在爭奪職位，但不太可能立即宣布參選。彭斯剛剛出版了一本回憶錄，在一定程度上批評了他的老板。德桑蒂斯可能會等到佛羅里達州立法會議于5月結(jié)束后。作為唯一宣布參選的主要候選人，特朗普可能有機會鞏固黨內(nèi)不斷下滑的支持率。這也可能讓他成為最容易受到內(nèi)部攻擊的人。特朗普在講話中警告稱:“ 我們前面的道路不會平坦。任何真正試圖挑戰(zhàn)這個被操縱和腐敗的體系的人，都將面臨只有少數(shù)人能理解的猛烈炮火?！?這種世界末日的焦慮感是普遍存在的。