「釋義」

逃跑風(fēng)險(xiǎn)原指被執(zhí)法機(jī)關(guān)羈押的人有可能潛逃的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

在管理中，惠普用逃跑風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)，向管理層匯報(bào)預(yù)測員工離職的意向。

「應(yīng)用場景」

同樣的概念也適用于預(yù)測性取向、種族、健康狀況、定位和離職意向。即便一個(gè)模型綜合來講不是很準(zhǔn)確，但針對相對有限的群體，也可能準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測到這些信息。

The same concept applies when predicting sexual orientation, race, health status, location, and your intentions to leave your job. Even if a model isn’t highly accurate in general, it can still reveal with high confidence — for a limited group — things like sexual orientation, race, or ethnicity.

很好理解人們?yōu)槭裁床幌胱屍渌酥肋@些信息。2013年惠普預(yù)測將有超過30萬員工可能離職——相關(guān)指標(biāo)被惠普稱為逃跑風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)，并被提交給管理者。如果計(jì)劃離職，你大概不會(huì)想在正式提出之前讓領(lǐng)導(dǎo)知道。

It’s easy to think of reasons why people wouldn’t want someone to know these things. As of 2013, Hewlett-Packard was predictively scoring its more than 300,000 workers with the probability of whether they’d quit their job — HP called this the Flight Risk score, and it was delivered to managers. If you’re planning to leave, your boss would probably be the last person you’d want to find out before it’s official.

以上文字選自《哈佛商業(yè)評論》中文版2020年12月刊《預(yù)測類技術(shù)可能面臨道德批判》

艾瑞克·西格爾（Eric Siegel）丨文

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