The American Economic Review?由美國經濟學會(American Economic Association)于1911年創(chuàng)立，被譽為美國最重要、影響最大的經濟理論期刊。本期，我們推送2015年至2018年AER上發(fā)表的與中國相關的論文摘要。

文章目錄

1. Killer Cities: Past and Present

2. The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China

3. Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991-2012

4. Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China

5. China’s Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets

6. Hayek, Local Information, and Commanding Heights: Decentralizing State-Owned Enterprises in China

7. WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms

8. Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

9. The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China

10. Media Bias in China

1. Killer Cities: Past and Present

Hanlon, W. W., & Tian, Y. (2015). Killer cities: Past and present.?American Economic Review, 105(5), 570-575.

Abstract:?The industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live. How much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years? To help answer this question, we compare mortality patterns in 19th century England to those in Chinese urban areas in 2000. We document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period. Unlike historical English cities, large cities in China have lower mortality than less populated areas. However, we also provide evidence that in China a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains.

中文摘要:?19世紀時，工業(yè)城市是極其不健康的居住地之選。在過去的150年間，大城市在減輕這些健康負面影響方面取得了多少進展？為了回答這個問題，我們比較了19世紀英國和2000年中國城市地區(qū)的死亡率模式。研究表明，這一時期許多城市在改善人們健康方面取得了實質性進展。與歷史上的英國城市不同，中國大城市的死亡率比人口較少的地區(qū)還要低。然而，我們提供的證據也表明，中國的工業(yè)污染和死亡率之間仍然存在實質性的關系。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20151071

2. The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China

Li, H., Shi, X., & Wu, B. (2015). The retirement consumption puzzle in China.?American Economic Review, 105(5), 437-441.

Abstract:?Using data from China’s Urban Household Survey and exploiting China’s mandatory retirement policy, we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures. Retirement reduces total non-durable expenditures by 20 percent. Among the categories of non-durable expenditures, retirement reduces work-related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on entertainment expenditures. After excluding these three components, retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non-durable expenditures. It suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if a life-cycle model with home production is considered.

中文摘要:?本文使用中國城市居民調查數據，利用中國強制退休政策帶來的外生變異，采用斷點回歸的方法來估計退休對家庭支出的影響。退休使得非耐用品總支出減少20%。在非耐用支出類別中，退休減少了與工作相關的支出和在家里的食品消費支出，但對娛樂支出的影響不顯著。排除這三個組成部分后，退休對其余非耐用品支出沒有影響。這表明，如果考慮有家庭生產的生命周期模型，退休消費之謎可能不是一個謎。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20151007

3. Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991-2012

Ebenstein, A., Fan, M., Greenstone, M., He, G., Yin, P., & Zhou, M. (2015). Growth, pollution, and life expectancy: China from 1991–2012.?American Economic Review, 105(5), 226-231.

Abstract:?This paper examines the relationship between income, pollution, and mortality in China from 1991-2012. Using first-difference models, we document a robust positive association between city-level GDP and life expectancy. We also find a negative association between city-level particulate air pollution exposure and life expectancy that is driven by elevated cardiorespiratory mortality rates. The results suggest that while China’s unprecedented economic growth over the last two decades is associated with health improvements, pollution has served as a countervailing force.

中文摘要:?本文研究了1991至2012年中國收入、污染與死亡率之間的關系。使用一階差分模型，我們發(fā)現城市GDP與預期壽命之間存在穩(wěn)健的正向關系。我們還發(fā)現，城市一級的空氣顆粒物污染暴露與預期壽命之間存在負相關關系，這種關系是由心肺疾病死亡率的上升所驅動的。結果表明，雖然中國在過去20年里前所未有的經濟增長與健康狀況的改善有關，但空氣污染起到了一定的抵消作用。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20151094

4. Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China

Kee, H. L., & Tang, H. (2016). Domestic value added in exports: Theory and firm evidence from China.?American Economic Review, 106(6), 1402-1436.

Abstract:?China has defied the declining trend in domestic content in exports in many countries. This paper studies China’s rising domestic content in exports using firm- and customs transaction-level data. The approach embraces firm heterogeneity and hence reduces aggregation bias. The study finds that the substitution of domestic for imported materials by individual processing exporters caused China’s domestic content in exports to increase from 65 to 70 percent in the period 2000-2007. Such substitution was induced by the country’s trade and investment liberalization, which deepened its engagement in global value chains and led to a greater variety of domestic materials becoming available at lower prices.

中文摘要:?大多數國家出口產品的國內增加值在不斷減少，而中國是一個特例。本文利用企業(yè)和海關交易層面的數據研究了中國出口產品中不斷上升的國內增加值成分。研究方法包含了企業(yè)異質性，因此減少了聚合偏差。研究發(fā)現，在2000年至2007年期間，由于個體加工出口商用國產原材料替代進口原材料，中國出口產品中的國產成分從65%增加到70%。該替代現象背后的原因在于中國的貿易和投資自由化，這種自由化不僅深化了中國在全球價值鏈中的參與，而且使得國內原材料價格變得低廉。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131687

5. China’s Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets

Brunnermeier, M. K., Sockin, M., & Xiong, W. (2017). China's gradualistic economic approach and financial markets.?American Economic Review, 107(5), 608-613.

Abstract:?China’s gradualistic approach allowed the government to learn how the economy reacts to small policy changes, and to adjust its reforms before implementing them in full. With fully developed financial markets, however, private actors may front-run future policy changes, making it impossible to implement policies gradually. With financial markets, the government faces a time-inconsistency problem. The government would like to commit to a gradualistic approach, but after it observes the economy’s quick reaction, it has no incentive to implement its policies in small steps.

中文摘要:?中國的漸進式方法使政府得以了解經濟體對細微政策變動的反應，并能在全面實施改革之前對政策進行調整。然而，隨著金融市場的充分發(fā)展，個人行動者可能會走在未來政策變化之前，從而使得政策無法逐步實施。就金融市場而言，政府面臨著時間不一致的問題。政府希望能承諾采取循序漸進的方法，但在觀察到經濟的快速反應后，政府沒有動力再小步地實施其政策。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171035

6. Hayek, Local Information, and Commanding Heights: Decentralizing State-Owned Enterprises in China

Huang, Z., Li, L., Ma, G., & Xu, L. C. (2017). Hayek, local information, and commanding heights: Decentralizing state-owned enterprises in China.?American Economic Review, 107(8), 2455-2478.

Abstract:?Hayek (1945) argues that local information is key to understanding the efficiency of alternative economic systems and whether production should be centralized or decentralized. The Chinese experience of decentralizing SOEs confirms this insight: when the distance to the government is farther, the SOE is more likely to be decentralized, and this distance-decentralization link is more pronounced with higher communication costs and greater firm-performance heterogeneity. However, when the Chinese central government oversees SOEs in strategic industries, the distance-decentralization link is muted. We also consider alternative agency-cost-based explanations, and do not find much support.

中文摘要:?哈耶克（1945）認為，地方信息是理解經濟體制效率以及決定生產是否應該下放的關鍵。中國國有企業(yè)的分權經驗很好地支持了這一觀點：國有企業(yè)到政府的距離越遠，該國企下放分權的可能性越大，而且這種距離-分權的聯系在溝通成本較高和企業(yè)績效異質性較大的情況下更為明顯。然而，當中央政府直接監(jiān)管戰(zhàn)略性行業(yè)的國有企業(yè)時，距離與權力下放之間的聯系就不那么明顯了。我們還考慮了其他基于代理成本的解釋，但沒有找到足夠證據支撐。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150592

7. WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms

Brandt, L., Van Biesebroeck, J., Wang, L., & Zhang, Y. (2017). WTO accession and performance of Chinese manufacturing firms.?American Economic Review, 107(9), 2784-2820.

Abstract:?We examine the effects of trade liberalization in China on the evolution of markups and productivity of manufacturing firms. Although these dimensions of performance cannot be separately identified when firm output is measured by revenue, detailed price deflators make it possible to estimate the average effect of tariff reductions on both. Several novel findings emerge. First, cuts in output tariffs reduce markups, but raise productivity. Second, pro-competitive effects are most important among incumbents, while efficiency gains dominate for new entrants. Third, cuts in input tariffs raise both markups and productivity. We highlight mechanisms that explain these findings in the Chinese context.

中文摘要:?我們研究了中國貿易自由化如何影響制造業(yè)企業(yè)加價和生產率。由于營業(yè)收入通常被用來衡量企業(yè)產出，我們無法同時識別企業(yè)的市場勢力溢價和生產率，但詳細的價格平減指數可以被用來估計關稅下降對二者的平均效應。本文有一些新發(fā)現。首先，出口關稅下降會降低企業(yè)的市場勢力溢價，但同時提高生產率。其次，對現有企業(yè)來說，促進競爭的效應最為重要；而對新進入的企業(yè)來說，提升效率則占主導地位。第三，進口關稅下降同時提高了市場勢力溢價和生產率。我們強調了在中國背景下解釋這些發(fā)現的機制。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20121266

8. Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

Handley, K., & Lim?o, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States.?American Economic Review, 107(9), 2731-2783.

Abstract:?We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China’s export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000-2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers’ income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it.

中文摘要:?本文在一般均衡框架下，研究了政策不確定性如何影響企業(yè)進入出口市場的投資，進而影響貿易、價格和實際收入。我們估計并量化了2001年中國加入世貿組織后，貿易政策對中國向美國出口的影響。我們發(fā)現，中國加入世貿組織后，美國發(fā)動貿易戰(zhàn)的威脅減小了，這可以解釋中國在2000年至2005年期間出口增長的三分之一。減小政策不確定性降低了美國消費者購買商品的價格，并且增加了美國消費者的實際收入，相當于關稅永久性下降13個百分點。這些發(fā)現提供了政策不確定性對經濟活動產生巨大影響的證據，也證明了協議對減少不確定性的重要性。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20141419

9. The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China

Chen, K., Ren, J., & Zha, T. (2018). The nexus of monetary policy and shadow banking in China.?American Economic Review, 108(12), 3891-3936.

Abstract:?We study how monetary policy in China influences banks’ shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993). This development, along with two newly constructed micro banking datasets, enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Contractionary monetary policy during 2009–2015 caused shadow banking loans to rise rapidly, offsetting the expected decline of traditional bank loans and hampering the effectiveness of monetary policy on total bank credit. We advance a theoretical explanation of our empirical findings.

中文摘要:?我們研究了中國貨幣政策對銀行的影子銀行業(yè)務的影響。我們開發(fā)并估計了內生轉換的貨幣政策規(guī)則，該規(guī)則基于制度事實，根據泰勒（1993）的精神是可處理的。利用這一政策規(guī)則和兩個新構建的微觀銀行數據集，我們得到以下經驗證據。2009–2015年期間，緊縮貨幣政策導致影子銀行貸款迅速增長，這抵消了傳統(tǒng)銀行貸款的預期下降，削弱了貨幣政策對調節(jié)銀行信貸總量的有效性。我們對該實證發(fā)現提出了理論解釋。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20170133

10. Media Bias in China

Qin, B., Str?mberg, D., & Wu, Y. (2018). Media bias in China.?American Economic Review, 108(9), 2442-76.

Abstract:?This paper examines whether and how market competition affected the political bias of government-owned newspapers in China from 1981 to 2011. We measure media bias based on coverage of government mouthpiece content (propaganda) relative to commercial content. We first find that a reform that forced newspaper exits (reduced competition) affected media bias by increasing product specialization, with some papers focusing on propaganda and others on commercial content. Second, lower-level governments produce less-biased content and launch commercial newspapers earlier, eroding higher-level governments’ political goals. Third, bottom-up competition intensifies the politico-economic tradeoff, leading to product proliferation and less audience exposure to propaganda.

中文摘要:?本文研究了1981年至2011年間，市場競爭如何影響國有報刊的政治偏向性。我們以政府喉舌內容（政治宣傳）相對于商業(yè)內容的報道量來衡量這種媒體偏向。首先，我們發(fā)現一項迫使報紙退出市場的改革（減少市場競爭）通過增強產品專業(yè)化從而影響了媒體偏向：一些報紙更加專注于政治宣傳，而另一些則專注于商業(yè)內容。其次，下級政府管控的報紙政治偏向性更小，并且更早地推出商業(yè)報刊，從而侵蝕了上級政府的政治目標。第三，自下而上的競爭加劇了報紙在政治-經濟之間的權衡取舍，并且導致產品不斷涌現，觀眾暴露于政治宣傳的機會也相應減少。

鏈接:?https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20170947

The end

來源：環(huán)境與發(fā)展經濟學

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