Journal of Development Economics （雙月刊）2023年第2期

?

?

——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

?

?

1.Rethinking the Lebanese economic miracle: The extreme concentration of income and wealth in Lebanon, 2005–2014

反思黎巴嫩經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡:2005-2014年黎巴嫩收入和財(cái)富的極度集中

Lydia Assouad

I combine household surveys, national accounts and unique personal income tax records to produce the first estimates of the national income distribution in an Arab country, Lebanon. I find that income is extremely concentrated over the 2005–2014 period: The top 1 and 10 percent of the adult population received almost 25 and 55 percent of national income on average, placing Lebanon among the countries with the highest levels of income inequality in the world. These results challenge a long lasting narrative according to which inequality levels are not that high in the Middle East. They also confirm results from a large literature that emphasizes how the Lebanese sectarian-based mode of governance has allowed the ruling elite to extract large rents for decades and at the expense of the majority of citizens.

我將家庭調(diào)查、國民核算和獨(dú)特的個(gè)人所得稅記錄結(jié)合起來，首次對阿拉伯國家黎巴嫩的國民收入分配進(jìn)行了估計(jì)。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，在2005年至2014年期間，黎巴嫩的收入極為集中：收入最高的1%和10%的成年人平均獲得了近25%和55%的國民收入，這使黎巴嫩成為世界上收入不平等程度最高的國家之一。這些結(jié)果挑戰(zhàn)了一種長期存在的說法，即中東的不平等程度并沒有那么高。他們還證實(shí)了大量文獻(xiàn)的結(jié)果，這些文獻(xiàn)強(qiáng)調(diào)黎巴嫩以宗派為基礎(chǔ)的治理模式如何允許統(tǒng)治精英幾十年來以犧牲大多數(shù)公民的利益為代價(jià)榨取巨額租金。

?

?

?

2.Tax revenue and mobile money in developing countries

發(fā)展中國家的稅收和移動貨幣

Ablam Estel Apeti, Eyah Denise Edoh

This paper analyzes the effect of mobile money adoption on tax revenue performance in a large sample of 104 developing countries over the period 1990–2019. Estimations, based on the entropy balancing method, show that mobile money significantly increases tax revenue in mobile money countries relative to non-mobile money countries. This result remains robust to various robustness tests and may depend on time perspective, the type of mobile money service, and some structural factors, including a country's level of development, corruption level, rural population size, inflation rate, education level, tax revenue sample 25th percentile and average, revenue administration efficiency, and mature markets. A first level of disaggregation of tax revenue into direct and indirect tax revenue shows that mobile money increases both types of tax revenue, with a larger impact on direct tax revenue. A second level of disaggregation of these two components into different sub-categories shows that the effect on direct tax revenue is driven by personal income tax revenue and corporate income tax revenue and that on indirect tax revenue is determined by taxes on goods and services. Finally, a broadening tax base (proxied by GDP per capita), better institutional quality, and tax payment process simplification are the main channels through which mobile money adoption increases tax performance in developing countries.

本文分析了1990年至2019年期間104個(gè)發(fā)展中國家采用移動貨幣對稅收績效的影響?；陟仄胶夥椒ǖ墓烙?jì)表明，相對于非移動貨幣國家，移動貨幣顯著增加了移動貨幣國家的稅收收入。這一結(jié)果在各種穩(wěn)健性測試中仍然穩(wěn)健，可能取決于時(shí)間視角、移動貨幣服務(wù)類型和一些結(jié)構(gòu)性因素，包括一個(gè)國家的發(fā)展水平、腐敗水平、農(nóng)村人口規(guī)模、通貨膨脹率、教育水平、稅收樣本第25百分位和平均值、稅收管理效率和成熟市場。將稅收收入分為直接稅收入和間接稅收入的第一個(gè)層次表明，移動貨幣增加了兩種類型的稅收收入，對直接稅收入的影響更大。將這兩個(gè)部分分解為不同的子類別的第二個(gè)層次表明，對直接稅收入的影響是由個(gè)人所得稅收入和企業(yè)所得稅收入推動的，對間接稅收入的影響是由商品和服務(wù)稅決定的。最后，擴(kuò)大稅基(以人均GDP為代表)、提高制度質(zhì)量和簡化納稅流程是采用移動貨幣提高發(fā)展中國家稅收績效的主要途徑。

?

?

?

3.Irrigation and the spatial pattern of local economic development in India

灌溉與印度地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的空間格局

David Blakeslee, Aaditya Dar, Ram Fishman, Samreen Malik, ... Karan Singh Bagavathinathan

We study the long-term impact of large-scale irrigation infrastructure on the composition of local economic activity in India. Our analysis uses high-resolution spatial data covering approximately 150,000 villages and towns and exploits spatial discontinuities in the coverage of irrigation projects. Irrigation increases agricultural output, wealth, and population density in rural villages. However, in towns it reduces population and nightlight density, the size of the non-agricultural sector, and large-firm activity. These results highlight the heterogeneous impacts that agricultural productivity gains can have on the patterns local economic development.

我們研究了大規(guī)模灌溉基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對印度地方經(jīng)濟(jì)活動構(gòu)成的長期影響。我們的分析使用了覆蓋約15萬個(gè)村莊和城鎮(zhèn)的高分辨率空間數(shù)據(jù)，并利用了灌溉項(xiàng)目覆蓋中的空間不連續(xù)性。灌溉增加了農(nóng)村的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)量、財(cái)富和人口密度。然而，在城鎮(zhèn)，它減少了人口和夜間照明密度，減少了非農(nóng)業(yè)部門的規(guī)模和大型企業(yè)的活動。這些結(jié)果強(qiáng)調(diào)了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率提高對地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式的異質(zhì)影響。

?

?

?

4.Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India

該領(lǐng)域的主觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信念功能:來自印度烹飪?nèi)剂线x擇和健康的證據(jù)

Hide-Fumi Yokoo, Toshi H. Arimura, Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay, Hajime Katayama

We investigate the accuracy of the perceptions of health risks in India. The context of our study is the risk of developing physical symptoms related to household air pollution caused by cooking. Using field data collected from 588 respondents in 17 villages in West Bengal, we regress the probability of symptoms on fuel choices to predict respondent-specific health risk changes. The estimated risks, which we treat as objective risks, are then compared with the corresponding subjective probabilistic beliefs, which are elicited by an interactive method with visual aids. Our results show that, on average, the respondents slightly underestimate the change in risk when switching from cooking with firewood to cooking with liquefied petroleum gas, even though their beliefs are qualitatively correct. The results further show that risk misperception is associated only with religion among individuals’ observed characteristics, suggesting that their unobserved characteristics play a substantial role in risk misperception.

我們調(diào)查了印度人對健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)知的準(zhǔn)確性。我們研究的背景是與烹飪引起的家庭空氣污染相關(guān)的身體癥狀的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。利用從西孟加拉邦17個(gè)村莊的588名受訪者收集的現(xiàn)場數(shù)據(jù)，我們回歸了燃料選擇的癥狀概率，以預(yù)測受訪者特定的健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變化。我們將估計(jì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)視為客觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，然后將其與相應(yīng)的主觀概率信念進(jìn)行比較，這是由視覺輔助的交互式方法引起的。我們的研究結(jié)果顯示，平均而言，受訪者略微低估了從柴火烹飪到液化石油氣烹飪的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變化，盡管他們的信念在本質(zhì)上是正確的。結(jié)果進(jìn)一步表明，在個(gè)體的可觀察特征中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)誤解僅與宗教相關(guān)，這表明個(gè)體的不可觀察特征在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)誤解中起著重要作用。

?

?

?

5.Measuring remittances

測算匯款

Giuseppe De Arcangelis, Alexander Fertig, Yuna Liang, Peter Srouji, Dean Yang

Remittances received by households from international migrants are of interest in an increasing number of microeconomic analyses. Making use of novel data, we measure misreporting of remittances sent by migrants in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to remittance recipients in the Philippines. We obtained administrative transaction data from a sample of Filipino migrants who were clients of a popular money transfer operator (MTO). We then surveyed these migrants as well as their primary remittance recipients about the same remittance flows. Migrant-reported remittances are only 6% lower than MTO administrative records, and we cannot reject their equality. A custom smartphone app designed to facilitate migrant remittance reporting does not help raise reporting accuracy. Recipient-reported remittances are 23% lower than migrant reports on average. Recipients under-report even more when they receive remittances less frequently and when remittances make up a lower share of household income.

在越來越多的微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析中，國際移民家庭收到的匯款引起了人們的興趣。利用新穎的數(shù)據(jù)，我們測算了阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國(UAE)的移民向菲律賓的匯款接收人匯款的誤報(bào)情況。我們從菲律賓移民樣本中獲得了行政交易數(shù)據(jù)，他們是一家流行的匯款運(yùn)營商(MTO)的客戶。然后，我們就相同的匯款流量對這些移民及其主要匯款接收人進(jìn)行了調(diào)查。移民報(bào)告的匯款僅比MTO行政記錄低6%，我們不能拒絕他們的平等。為方便移民匯款報(bào)告而設(shè)計(jì)的定制智能手機(jī)應(yīng)用程序無助于提高報(bào)告的準(zhǔn)確性。接收人報(bào)告的匯款比移民報(bào)告的匯款平均低23%。當(dāng)收款人收到匯款的頻率較低和匯款占家庭收入的比例較低時(shí)，他們漏報(bào)的情況會更嚴(yán)重。

?

?

?

6.The insights and illusions of consumption measurements

消費(fèi)測算的洞察和幻覺

Erich Battistin, Michele De Nadai, Nandini Krishnan

While household well-being derives from long-term average rates of consumption, welfare estimates rely on shorter-duration survey measurements. We develop a strategy to identify the distribution of these long-term rates by leveraging a large-scale randomization that elicited repeated short-duration measurements from diaries and recall questions. Identification stems from diary–recall differences in reports from the same household, does not require reports to be error-free, and hinges on a research design with broad replicability. Our strategy delivers practical and cost-effective suggestions for designing survey modules to yield the closest measurements of household well-being. We find little empirical support for the claim that acquisition diaries yield the most accurate measurement of poverty and inequality and offer new insights to interpret and reconcile diary–recall differences in household surveys.

家庭幸福來源于長期平均消費(fèi)率，而福利估算則依賴于較短時(shí)間的調(diào)查測算。我們開發(fā)了一種策略，通過利用大規(guī)模隨機(jī)化，從日記和回憶問題中引出重復(fù)的短期測算，來確定這些長期率的分布。識別源于同一家庭報(bào)告的日記回憶差異，不要求報(bào)告無錯(cuò)誤，并取決于具有廣泛可復(fù)制性的研究設(shè)計(jì)。我們的策略為設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查模塊提供實(shí)用和具有成本效益的建議，以產(chǎn)生最接近的家庭幸福測算。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)很少有實(shí)證支持這樣一種說法，即獲取日記能最準(zhǔn)確地衡量貧困和不平等，并為解釋和調(diào)和家庭調(diào)查中日記回憶的差異提供了新的見解。

?

?

?

7.No bulls: Experimental evidence on the impact of veterinarian ratings in Pakistan

沒有公牛:巴基斯坦獸醫(yī)評級影響的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Syed Ali Hasanain, Muhammad Yasir Khan, Arman Rezaee

We implement a platform to crowdsource information about service provision quality and prices charged and reveal this information to consumers in a market – artificial insemination of livestock in Punjab, Pakistan – where individual signals of quality are noisy. We measure the impact of this information revelation using a randomized controlled trial. Farmers receiving information enjoy 25% higher insemination success and no higher prices than controls. These effects are due to existing veterinarians increasing effort, rather than farmers switching to possibly higher-quality providers. These results illustrate the viability of information clearinghouses successfully aggregating information in low-capacity markets. They also suggest the importance of doing so by implying large welfare benefits from our low-cost information intervention.

我們搭建了一個(gè)平臺，將有關(guān)服務(wù)提供質(zhì)量和收費(fèi)價(jià)格的信息眾包，并在一個(gè)市場(巴基斯坦旁遮普省的牲畜人工授精)向消費(fèi)者披露這一信息，在這個(gè)市場中，個(gè)人質(zhì)量信號很嘈雜。我們使用隨機(jī)對照試驗(yàn)來衡量這一信息披露的影響。收到信息的農(nóng)民的授精成功率比對照組高25%，而且價(jià)格并不比對照組高。這些影響是由于現(xiàn)有獸醫(yī)的努力，而不是農(nóng)民轉(zhuǎn)向可能更高質(zhì)量的供應(yīng)商。這些結(jié)果說明了信息交換中心在低容量市場成功地聚合信息的可行性。他們還暗示了這樣做的重要性，暗示了我們低成本的信息干預(yù)帶來的巨大福利。

?

?

?

8.Measuring consumption over the phone: Evidence from a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia

通過電話測量消費(fèi):來自埃塞俄比亞城市調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Gashaw T. Abate, Alan de Brauw, Kalle Hirvonen, Abdulazize Wolle

The paucity of reliable, timely household consumption data in many low- and middle-income countries have made it difficult to assess how global poverty has evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard poverty measurement requires collecting household consumption data, which is rarely collected by phone. To test the feasibility of collecting consumption data over the phone, we conducted a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia, randomly assigning households to either phone or in-person interviews. In the phone survey, average per capita consumption is 23 percent lower and the estimated poverty headcount is twice as high than in the in-person survey. We observe evidence of survey fatigue occurring early in phone interviews but not in in-person interviews; the bias is correlated with household characteristics. While the phone survey mode provides comparable estimates when measuring diet-based food security, it is not amenable to measuring consumption using the ‘best practice’ approach originally devised for in-person surveys.

許多低收入和中等收入國家缺乏可靠、及時(shí)的家庭消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)，因此難以評估2019冠狀病毒病大流行期間全球貧困的演變情況。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的貧困測量需要收集家庭消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)，而這些數(shù)據(jù)很少通過電話收集。為了測試通過電話收集消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)的可行性，我們在埃塞俄比亞城市進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)，隨機(jī)分配家庭進(jìn)行電話采訪或當(dāng)面采訪。在電話調(diào)查中，人均消費(fèi)比現(xiàn)場調(diào)查低23%，估計(jì)貧困人數(shù)是現(xiàn)場調(diào)查的兩倍。我們觀察到調(diào)查疲勞的證據(jù)出現(xiàn)在電話訪談的早期，而不是在面對面訪談中;偏差與家庭特征相關(guān)。雖然電話調(diào)查模式在衡量基于飲食的糧食安全時(shí)提供了可比較的估計(jì)值，但它不適用于使用最初為面對面調(diào)查設(shè)計(jì)的“最佳實(shí)踐”方法來衡量消費(fèi)量。

?

?

?

9.Exhaustive or exhausting? Evidence on respondent fatigue in long surveys

累人還是讓人筋疲力盡?長時(shí)間調(diào)查中受訪者疲勞的證據(jù)

Dahyeon Jeong, Shilpa Aggarwal, Jonathan Robinson, Naresh Kumar, ... David Sungho Park

Living standards measurement surveys require sustained attention for several hours. We quantify survey fatigue by randomizing the order of questions in 2–3 hour-long in-person surveys. An additional hour of survey time increases the probability that a respondent skips a question by 10%–64%. Because skips are more common, the total monetary value of aggregated categories such as assets or expenditures declines as the survey goes on, and this effect is sizeable for some categories: for example, an extra hour of survey time lowers food expenditures by 25%. We find similar effect sizes within phone surveys in which respondents were already familiar with questions, suggesting that cognitive burden may be a key driver of survey fatigue.

生活水平測量調(diào)查需要幾個(gè)小時(shí)的持續(xù)注意力。我們通過在2-3小時(shí)的面對面調(diào)查中隨機(jī)分配問題的順序來量化調(diào)查疲勞。額外一小時(shí)的調(diào)查時(shí)間會增加受訪者跳過問題的概率10%-64%。由于省略更常見，資產(chǎn)或支出等匯總類別的總貨幣價(jià)值隨著調(diào)查的進(jìn)行而下降，這對某些類別的影響相當(dāng)大:例如，額外一小時(shí)的調(diào)查時(shí)間可以減少25%的食品支出。我們在電話調(diào)查中發(fā)現(xiàn)了類似的效應(yīng)大小，在這些調(diào)查中，受訪者已經(jīng)熟悉了問題，這表明認(rèn)知負(fù)擔(dān)可能是調(diào)查疲勞的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素。

?

?

?

10.Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation

國際競爭中的交貨時(shí)間:一項(xiàng)實(shí)證研究

Andrea Ciani, Karsten Mau

This paper investigates the role of timely delivery in international competition. Using a demand-side, industry-specific measure of time-sensitivity, we assess the effect of Chinese competition on the export performance of Eastern European transition economies into Western European (EU15) destination-product markets. Our empirical analysis relies on exploiting the increase of Chinese competition in global markets during the first decade of the 2000s. We find evidence of heterogeneous adjustments to Chinese competition among Eastern European exporters due to the differential importance of timely delivery across sectors (i.e. time-sensitivity). While we observe sizable real displacement effects, they appear to be at least 50 percent smaller for time-sensitive exports. Relying on firm-level customs data, we establish that this mechanism also plays a role for responses to Chinese competition within firms.

本文研究了及時(shí)交貨在國際競爭中的作用。利用需求側(cè)、行業(yè)特定的時(shí)間敏感性指標(biāo)，我們評估了中國競爭對東歐轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體向西歐(歐盟15國)目的地產(chǎn)品市場出口績效的影響。我們的實(shí)證分析依賴于利用中國在21世紀(jì)頭十年在全球市場上日益增強(qiáng)的競爭力。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)東歐出口商對中國競爭的異質(zhì)性調(diào)整的證據(jù)是，由于不同部門之間及時(shí)交貨的重要性不同(即時(shí)間敏感性)。雖然我們觀察到相當(dāng)大的實(shí)際替代效應(yīng)，但對于時(shí)間敏感的出口來說，這種效應(yīng)似乎至少要小50%。基于企業(yè)層面的海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)這一機(jī)制在應(yīng)對中國企業(yè)內(nèi)部競爭時(shí)也發(fā)揮了一定作用。

?

?

?

11.Military investment and the rise of industrial clusters: Evidence from China’s self-strengthening movement

軍事投資與產(chǎn)業(yè)集群的崛起:來自中國自強(qiáng)運(yùn)動的證據(jù)

Shiyu Bo, Cong Liu, Yan Zhou

This paper investigates the short- and long-term impact of large-scale military investment on civilian industrial growth by focusing on China’s first attempt to modernize its military sector between 1861 and 1894. Panel data from 1858 to 1937 suggest that the program generated positive effects on civilian firm entry, but these effects appeared only after the government relaxed constraints on the entry of private firms. Long-term analysis shows that counties that received more military investment through the program, driven by plausibly exogenous?ex ante?political connections, had greater output in civilian industries in the 1930s. Analysis of the mechanisms suggest that the program boosted local economies through input–output linkages, human capital accumulation, and the rise of modern banks.

?

?

?

12.The freedom to choose: Theory and quasi-experimental evidence on cash transfer restrictions

選擇的自由:現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移限制的理論和準(zhǔn)實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Jade Siu, Olivier Sterck, Cory Rodgers

Should cash transfer programmes restrict consumer choice? For example, should food assistance delivered in cash be restricted to food and exclude temptation goods? Theoretically, restrictions induce (1) a substitution effect away from restricted goods and (2) a negative wealth effect if transfers are extra-marginal and the resale of goods is costly. The welfare impact on transfer recipients is negative. We test these predictions by exploiting a natural experiment in a refugee settlement in Kenya, where some refugees receive monthly cash transfers restricted to food while others receive unrestricted transfers. In line with theory, we find that restricted transfers increase participation in a shadow resale market and negatively affect non-food expenditure, temptation-goods spending, and subjective well-being. Consistent with theory, restrictions have no significant effect on food consumption. Our results show that policy-makers should avoid restrictions to maximise positive impacts on transfer beneficiaries, especially when extreme poverty implies that transfers are extra-marginal.

現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移支付計(jì)劃應(yīng)該限制消費(fèi)者的選擇嗎?例如，以現(xiàn)金形式提供的糧食援助是否應(yīng)僅限于糧食而不包括誘惑物品?理論上，限制會導(dǎo)致(1)限制商品的替代效應(yīng);(2)如果轉(zhuǎn)移是超邊際的，并且商品的轉(zhuǎn)售是昂貴的，則會產(chǎn)生負(fù)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)。對轉(zhuǎn)移支付受助人的福利影響為負(fù)。我們利用肯尼亞一個(gè)難民定居點(diǎn)的自然實(shí)驗(yàn)來驗(yàn)證這些預(yù)測，在那里，一些難民每月獲得僅限于食物的現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移，而另一些難民則獲得不受限制的現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移。根據(jù)理論，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，限制性轉(zhuǎn)移增加了影子轉(zhuǎn)售市場的參與，并對非食品支出、誘惑商品支出和主觀幸福感產(chǎn)生了負(fù)向影響。與理論一致，限制措施對食品消費(fèi)沒有顯著影響。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，政策制定者應(yīng)該避免限制，以最大限度地對轉(zhuǎn)移支付受益人產(chǎn)生積極影響，特別是在極端貧困意味著轉(zhuǎn)移支付屬于超邊際轉(zhuǎn)移的情況下。

?

?

?

13.Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan

以機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)和手機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)為目標(biāo)的項(xiàng)目:來自阿富汗反貧困干預(yù)的證據(jù)

Emily L. Aiken, Guadalupe Bedoya, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Aidan Coville

Can mobile phone data improve program targeting? By combining rich survey data from a “big push” anti-poverty program in Afghanistan with detailed mobile phone logs from program beneficiaries, we study the extent to which machine learning methods can accurately differentiate ultra-poor households eligible for program benefits from ineligible households. We show that machine learning methods leveraging mobile phone data can identify ultra-poor households nearly as accurately as survey-based measures of consumption and wealth; and that combining survey-based measures with mobile phone data produces classifications more accurate than those based on a single data source.

手機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)能提高程序的針對性嗎?通過將阿富汗“大推動”反貧困項(xiàng)目的豐富調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)與項(xiàng)目受益人的詳細(xì)手機(jī)日志相結(jié)合，我們研究了機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)方法在多大程度上可以準(zhǔn)確區(qū)分符合項(xiàng)目福利條件的超貧困家庭與不符合條件的家庭。我們表明，利用手機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)的機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)方法可以幾乎與基于調(diào)查的消費(fèi)和財(cái)富指標(biāo)一樣準(zhǔn)確地識別超級貧困家庭;將基于調(diào)查的措施與手機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合，產(chǎn)生的分類比基于單一數(shù)據(jù)源的分類更準(zhǔn)確。

?

?

?

14.Firms and inequality when unemployment is high

當(dāng)失業(yè)率高時(shí)，企業(yè)和不平等

How important are firms for wage inequality in developing countries where structural unemployment is high? Research focused on contexts close to full employment has suggested a substantial role of firms in labor market inequality. Using matched employer–employee data from South Africa, I find that firms explain a larger share of wage variation than in richer countries. I consider drivers of this, documenting first a higher productivity dispersion as found for other developing countries. Secondly, I estimate the separations elasticity by instrumenting wages of matched workers with firm wages, and I find a low separations elasticity. This generates a high degree of monopsony, and the correspondingly high estimated rent-sharing elasticity helps explain the important role of firm wage policies in inequality. Monopsony may be driven by higher unemployment, and regional heterogeneity provides suggestive evidence for this. Such firm-level competitive dynamics may exacerbate inequality in developing countries more generally.

在結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)率高的發(fā)展中國家，企業(yè)對工資不平等的影響有多大?專注于接近充分就業(yè)環(huán)境的研究表明，企業(yè)在勞動力市場不平等中發(fā)揮了重要作用。利用來自南非的匹配雇主-雇員數(shù)據(jù)，我發(fā)現(xiàn)與較富裕國家相比，企業(yè)對工資差異的解釋比例更大。我考慮了這一現(xiàn)象的驅(qū)動因素，首先記錄了其他發(fā)展中國家更高的生產(chǎn)率差異。其次，本文通過將匹配工人的工資與企業(yè)工資相匹配來估計(jì)離職彈性，發(fā)現(xiàn)離職彈性較低。這就產(chǎn)生了高度的壟斷，相應(yīng)地估計(jì)的較高的租金分擔(dān)彈性有助于解釋企業(yè)工資政策在不平等中的重要作用。高失業(yè)率可能是壟斷的驅(qū)動因素，地區(qū)異質(zhì)性為這一點(diǎn)提供了暗示性證據(jù)。這種公司層面的競爭動態(tài)可能會更普遍地加劇發(fā)展中國家的不平等。

?

?

?

15.Can school environmental education programs make children and parents more pro-environmental?

學(xué)校的環(huán)境教育項(xiàng)目能使孩子和家長更支持環(huán)保嗎?

Marcela Jaime, César Salazar, Francisco Alpizar, Fredrik Carlsson

We evaluate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental educational program with value-laded content on children's and parents' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the consumption and disposal of plastics.We do this using a randomized field experiment targeting fourth-grade children in Chile.The educational program had a sizeable and a positive impact on children’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices, but no effect on parents' behavior.Heterogeneous effects indicate that the program had a larger effect among children in more vulnerable schools, but there was still no effect on parents.Finally, because parents may ultimately determine what constitutes acceptable behavior for children, promoting permanent changes in behavior will require interventions of this sort to be complemented with other initiatives targeting parents.

我們評估了環(huán)境教育項(xiàng)目對兒童和家長關(guān)于塑料消費(fèi)和處置的知識、態(tài)度和實(shí)踐的直接和間接影響。我們在智利進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)針對四年級兒童的隨機(jī)現(xiàn)場實(shí)驗(yàn)。該教育項(xiàng)目對兒童的知識、態(tài)度和實(shí)踐產(chǎn)生了相當(dāng)大的積極影響，但對父母的行為沒有影響。異質(zhì)性效應(yīng)表明，該計(jì)劃對弱勢學(xué)校的兒童有更大的影響，但對家長仍然沒有影響。最后，因?yàn)楦改缚赡茏罱K決定什么是孩子可接受的行為，促進(jìn)行為的永久性改變將需要這種干預(yù)措施，并與其他針對父母的舉措相輔相成。

?

?

?

16.Sharing risk to avoid tragedy: Informal insurance and irrigation in village economies

分擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)避免悲劇:農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)中的非正式保險(xiǎn)和灌溉

Karol Mazur

Irrigation provides insurance against aggregate weather shocks, which can interact with other institutions functioning in village communities. I study this relationship in a model of joint co-operation over irrigation and risk sharing under limited commitment. The model dynamics show that if access to irrigation can be regulated by villagers, the two institutions reinforce each other. However, non-excludable irrigation crowds out risk sharing (as is the case with government-managed irrigation). I estimate the framework on data from three villages in India and use it to quantify the relationship between informal insurance and irrigation, and the welfare impact of irrigation public policy.

灌溉提供了抵御總體天氣沖擊的保險(xiǎn)，這可以與村莊社區(qū)的其他運(yùn)作機(jī)構(gòu)相互作用。本文通過一個(gè)有限承諾下的灌溉合作和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模型研究了這一關(guān)系。模型動力學(xué)表明，如果村民可以調(diào)節(jié)灌溉，這兩種制度就會相互促進(jìn)。然而，非排他性灌溉擠占了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)(就像政府管理的灌溉)。我根據(jù)來自印度三個(gè)村莊的數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)了這個(gè)框架，并使用它來量化非正式保險(xiǎn)和灌溉之間的關(guān)系，以及灌溉公共政策對福利的影響。

?

?

?

17.Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries

災(zāi)害易發(fā)國家的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果

Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina, Chris Papageorgiou

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 5.3 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be small, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience?before?the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid?after?their realization.

本文利用動態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型，研究了自然災(zāi)害沖擊對災(zāi)害易發(fā)國家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果和福利的影響途徑。我們使用泰勒投影來求解該模型，該求解方法被證明可以有效地處理根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)校準(zhǔn)的高影響天氣沖擊。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，天氣沖擊的巨大而持久的影響顯著影響了易受災(zāi)害影響國家的收入趨同路徑。平均而言，與不容易發(fā)生災(zāi)害的國家相比，這些沖擊造成的福利損失相當(dāng)于消費(fèi)永久性下降5.3%。人們發(fā)現(xiàn)，自籌資金投資于彈性公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的國家的福利收益很小，而要實(shí)現(xiàn)顯著的福利收益，國際援助必須相當(dāng)大。此外，相比在災(zāi)害發(fā)生后發(fā)放援助，援助國在災(zāi)害發(fā)生前為恢復(fù)力融資更具成本效益。

?

?

?

18.He said, she said: The impact of gender and marriage perceptions on self and proxy reporting of labor

他說和她說:性別和婚姻觀念對勞動力自我報(bào)告和代理報(bào)告的影響

Ervin Dervisevic, Markus Goldstein

The accurate estimation of agricultural employment and labor productivity are crucial in understanding opportunities for improvements in productivity and economic growth in developing countries. Available labor statistics mostly come from surveys in developing countries, which mostly rely on one person providing information about all household members. However, there are only a few empirical studies that provide a framework for understanding the potential advantages and disadvantages of using self and proxy reporters to collect such data. Using self and proxy reports from surveys in Ghana, we find significant differences in estimated labor productivity with very different implications in terms of policy-making. We find that differences in reporting are most likely due to gender and marriage satisfaction of both self and proxy reporters, so differences in reporting are due to bias and are not classical measurement error.

準(zhǔn)確估計(jì)農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)和勞動生產(chǎn)率對于了解發(fā)展中國家提高生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的機(jī)會至關(guān)重要。現(xiàn)有的勞動力統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)大多來自發(fā)展中國家的調(diào)查，這些調(diào)查主要依賴于一個(gè)人提供所有家庭成員的信息。然而，只有少數(shù)實(shí)證研究提供了一個(gè)框架，以了解使用自我和代理記者收集此類數(shù)據(jù)的潛在優(yōu)勢和劣勢。利用加納調(diào)查的自我報(bào)告和代理報(bào)告，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)估計(jì)的勞動生產(chǎn)率存在顯著差異，在決策方面的影響也存在很大差異。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，自我報(bào)告者和代理報(bào)告者的報(bào)告差異最可能是由于性別和婚姻滿意度的差異，因此報(bào)告差異是由于偏見而不是經(jīng)典的測量誤差。

?

?

?

19.Experience in financial decision-making: Field evidence from Malawi

財(cái)務(wù)決策經(jīng)驗(yàn):來自馬拉維的實(shí)地證據(jù)

Xavier Giné, Jessica Goldberg

Fifty-three percent of subjects who owned a high-fee account with a local bank in Malawi did not switch to a new, lower-fee account when given the choice. In contrast, holders of high-fee accounts who had been induced to make more transactions in the past were significantly more likely to adopt the new, cheaper account. Using estimates from a structural model, we find that the different propensity to switch is better explained by differences in the valuation of the new account rather than differences in the cost of switching. Experience using financial products can thus improve financial decision making.

在馬拉維當(dāng)?shù)劂y行擁有高收費(fèi)賬戶的受試者中，53%的人在有選擇的情況下沒有切換到新的低收費(fèi)賬戶。相比之下，過去被誘導(dǎo)進(jìn)行更多交易的高收費(fèi)賬戶持有人更有可能采用新的、更便宜的賬戶。利用一個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)模型的估計(jì)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，轉(zhuǎn)換的不同傾向可以更好地解釋為新賬戶估值的差異，而不是轉(zhuǎn)換成本的差異。因此，使用金融產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以改善金融決策。

?

?

?

20.Student loans: Credit constraints and higher education in South Africa

學(xué)生貸款:信貸限制與南非的高等教育

Marc Gurgand, Adrien Lorenceau, Thomas Mélonio

The empirical evidence that enrollment in higher education is constrained by access to credit is limited and usually indirect. We use a regression discontinuity design based on the fact that student loans are granted according to a score threshold at a South African credit institution (Eduloan) providing short-term loans at market conditions: we find that the credit constraint is substantial, as it reduces enrollment by more than 40 percentage points in a population of mostly middle-class applicants. However, this effect is entirely concentrated on women, and women granted a loan catch up with men’s enrollment levels. This heterogeneity is not explained by lower incomes in the sample of women. It implies that women have lower access to credit, or that their options for managing without a credit are more limited than men’s.

高等教育入學(xué)受到信貸限制的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)是有限的，而且通常是間接的?；谶@樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即學(xué)生貸款是根據(jù)南非一家信貸機(jī)構(gòu)(Eduloan)在市場條件下提供短期貸款的分?jǐn)?shù)門檻發(fā)放的:我們使用了一個(gè)斷點(diǎn)回歸設(shè)計(jì):我們發(fā)現(xiàn)信貸約束是巨大的，因?yàn)樗鼫p少了以中產(chǎn)階級為主的申請人人口的入學(xué)率超過40個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。然而，這種影響完全集中在女性身上，獲得貸款的女性趕上了男性的入學(xué)水平。這種異質(zhì)性不能用女性樣本的較低收入來解釋。這意味著婦女獲得信貸的機(jī)會較低，或者她們在沒有信貸的情況下進(jìn)行管理的選擇比男子更有限。

?

?

——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

?