The future of the car

汽車(chē)的未來(lái)

Driven away

驅(qū)車(chē)離開(kāi)

Around the world, the young seem to be falling out of love with cars

全世界的年輕人似乎都不再喜歡汽車(chē)了

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FOR ADAH CRANDALL, a high-school student in Portland, Oregon, a daily annoyance is family members asking when she is going to learn to drive. Ms Crandall, who is 16, has spent a quarter of her life arguing against the car-centric planning of her city. At 12 she attended a school next to a major road down which thousands of lorries thundered every day. When a teacher invited a speaker to talk about air pollution, she and her classmates were galvanised. Within a year, she was travelling to Salem, Oregon’s capital, to demand lawmakers pass stricter laws on diesel engines.

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對(duì)于俄勒岡州波特蘭市的高中生阿達(dá)·克蘭德?tīng)杹?lái)說(shuō)，每天都有家人問(wèn)她什么時(shí)候才能學(xué)會(huì)開(kāi)車(chē)。16歲的克蘭德?tīng)柵炕怂兴姆种坏臅r(shí)間反對(duì)其所在城市以汽車(chē)為中心的規(guī)劃。12歲時(shí)，她就讀于一所學(xué)校，學(xué)校旁邊是一條主干道，每天都有數(shù)千輛卡車(chē)隆隆駛過(guò)。當(dāng)老師邀請(qǐng)一位演講者談?wù)摽諝馕廴緯r(shí)，她和同學(xué)們都受到了鼓舞。不到一年，她前往俄勒岡州首府塞勒姆，要求立法者通過(guò)更嚴(yán)格的限制柴油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)的法律。

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Yet her family still nags her to get her driver’s licence. “[It’s] seen as this ticket to independence. It’s so glorified,” she says. Ms Crandall admits her life would be easier if she had access to a car—she would spend less time on buses, and could drive to the coast with her friends. But she hates the idea that she should have to. “Why in our society is our identity so tied to car use?” she asks. “If I choose to comply and get my driver’s licence it would be like giving in.”

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然而，她的家人仍然纏著她去考駕照?！榜{照被視為通向獨(dú)立的入場(chǎng)券。這是如此榮耀，”她說(shuō)?？颂m德?tīng)柵砍姓J(rèn)，如果她有一輛車(chē)，自己的生活會(huì)更容易——她會(huì)花更少的時(shí)間在公交車(chē)上，可以和朋友一起開(kāi)車(chē)去海邊。但是她討厭自己必須這么做。"為什么在我們的社會(huì)中，自己的身份與使用汽車(chē)如此緊密地聯(lián)系在一起？"她問(wèn)道，"如果我選擇服從并拿到駕照，那就像是已經(jīng)屈服了。"

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Few technologies defined the 20th century more than the car. On the surface, the love affair with the personal automobile continues unabated into this century. The number of drivers on the world’s roads continues to rise almost everywhere. The distance driven by American motorists hit a new peak last year, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration. But there are hints that this is changing. People like Ms Crandall show why. Getting a driving licence was once a nearly universal rite of passage into adulthood. Now it is something that a growing minority of young people either ignore or actively oppose, into their 20s and beyond.

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很少有技術(shù)比汽車(chē)更能代表20世紀(jì)。從表面上看，對(duì)私人汽車(chē)的熱愛(ài)一直持續(xù)到本世紀(jì)。幾乎在全世界，道路上的司機(jī)數(shù)量都在持續(xù)上升。根據(jù)聯(lián)邦高速公路管理局的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)司機(jī)的駕駛距離去年創(chuàng)下新高。但是有跡象表明這種情況正在改變。像克蘭德?tīng)柵窟@樣的人解釋了原因。獲得駕照曾經(jīng)幾乎是普遍的成年儀式?，F(xiàn)在，越來(lái)越多的少數(shù)年輕人要么忽視駕照，要么積極反對(duì)，一直到20多歲甚至更久。

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That, in turn, is starting to create more support for a anti-car policies being passed in cities around the world. From New York to Norway, a growing number of cities and local politicians are passing anti-car laws, ripping out parking spaces, blocking off roads and changing planning rules to favour pedestrians over drivers. Anne Hidalgo, the socialist mayor of Paris, boasts of “reconquering” her city for its residents.

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這反過(guò)來(lái)為世界各地正在通過(guò)的反汽車(chē)政策創(chuàng)造了更多的支持。從紐約到挪威，越來(lái)越多的城市和地方政治家正在通過(guò)反汽車(chē)法律，取消停車(chē)位，封鎖道路，并改變城市規(guī)劃，以利于行人而不是司機(jī)。社會(huì)黨人安妮·伊達(dá)爾戈，巴黎市長(zhǎng)，吹噓為巴黎居民“重新征服”了她的城市。

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Campaigners detect a sea change. Even a few years ago “there was a sense that we were the weirdos,” says Doug Gordon, a founder of “The War on Cars”, a podcast based in New York. Now, he says, “more and more elected officials are adopting positions that were [until recently] on the fringe.” After a century in which the car remade the rich world, making possible everything from suburbs and supermarkets to drive-through restaurants and rush-hour traffic jams, the momentum may be beginning to swing the other way.

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活動(dòng)家們發(fā)現(xiàn)了巨大的變化。紐約播客“汽車(chē)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”的創(chuàng)始人道格·戈登說(shuō)，甚至在幾年前，“還有一種我們才是怪人的感覺(jué)”。他說(shuō)，如今“越來(lái)越多的民選官員采取了(直到最近)還處于邊緣的立場(chǎng)。”一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)，汽車(chē)重塑了富裕世界，使得從郊區(qū)、超市、免下車(chē)餐館和高峰時(shí)間的交通堵塞成為可能，這一勢(shì)頭可能開(kāi)始向另一個(gè)方向轉(zhuǎn)變。

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Start with the demography, and in the country most shaped by the car. The average American driver goes much farther every year than most of his or her rich-world contemporaries: around 14,300 miles (23,000km) in 2022, which is about twice as far as the typical Frenchman. Nearly a century of roadbuilding has resulted in sprawling cities, in which it is hard to get around in any other way. The city of Jacksonville, Florida, for instance, spreads across 875 square miles. With around 1m residents, that makes it only about twice as densely populated as the whole of England, only around 8% of which is classified as “urban”.

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改變從人口開(kāi)始，在這個(gè)受汽車(chē)影響最大的國(guó)家。美國(guó)普通司機(jī)每年比他同時(shí)代的大多數(shù)富裕國(guó)家的司機(jī)行駛了更遠(yuǎn)的里程:2022年大約14300英里(23000公里)，大約是普通法國(guó)人的兩倍。近一個(gè)世紀(jì)的道路建設(shè)導(dǎo)致了城市的不斷擴(kuò)張，人們很難通過(guò)其他方式出行。例如，佛羅里達(dá)州的杰克遜維爾市占地875平方英里。大約有100萬(wàn)居民，這使得它的人口密度只有整個(gè)英格蘭的兩倍，其中只有大約8%的人口被歸類(lèi)為“城市居民”。

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In the suburbs I learned to drive

在郊區(qū)，我學(xué)會(huì)了開(kāi)車(chē)

The Supreme Court said in 1977 that having a car was a “virtual necessity” for anyone living in America. By 1997, 43% of the country’s 16-year-olds had driving licences. But in 2020, the most recent year for which figures are available, the number had fallen to just 25%. Nor is it just teenagers. One in five Americans aged between 20 and 24 does not have a licence, up from just one in 12 in 1983. The proportion of people with licences has fallen for every age group under 40, and on the latest data, is still falling. And even those who do have them are driving less. Between 1990 and 2017 the distance driven by teenage drivers in America declined by 35%, and those aged 20-34 by 18%. It is entirely older drivers who account for still increasing traffic, as baby-boomers who grew up with cars do not give them up in retirement.

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最高法院在1977年表示，對(duì)于生活在美國(guó)的所有人，擁有一輛車(chē)都是“實(shí)際上的必需品”。到1997年，該國(guó)43%的16歲青少年擁有駕駛執(zhí)照。但在2020年，也就是有數(shù)據(jù)可查的最近一年，這一數(shù)字下降到只有25%。這一現(xiàn)象不僅僅發(fā)生在青少年身上。20至24歲的美國(guó)人中有五分之一沒(méi)有駕照，而在1983年只有十二分之一。在40歲以下的每個(gè)年齡組中，有駕照的人的比例都在下降，根據(jù)最新數(shù)據(jù)，這一比例還在下降。即使是那些有車(chē)的人也很少開(kāi)車(chē)。1990年至2017年間，美國(guó)青少年司機(jī)駕駛的距離下降了35%，20-34歲的司機(jī)下降了18%。交通流量仍在增長(zhǎng)的原因完全是年齡較大的司機(jī)，因?yàn)榘殡S著汽車(chē)長(zhǎng)大的二戰(zhàn)嬰兒潮一代在退休后不會(huì)放棄汽車(chē)。

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A similar trend is well-established in Europe. In Britain the proportion of teenagers able to drive has almost halved, from 41% to 21%, in the past 20 years. Across the countries of the European Union there are more cars than ever. Yet even before the covid-19 lockdowns emptied the roads, the average distance travelled by each one had fallen by more than a tenth since the turn of the millennium. (The exceptions were relatively new member states such as Poland.) Even in Germany, where the internal-combustion engine is an economic totem, drivers are pushing the brakes.

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類(lèi)似的趨勢(shì)在歐洲更加穩(wěn)固。在過(guò)去的20年里，英國(guó)會(huì)開(kāi)車(chē)的青少年比例幾乎減半，從41%降至21%。歐盟國(guó)家的汽車(chē)數(shù)量比以往任何時(shí)候都多。然而，即使在新冠肺炎封鎖清空道路之前，每條道路的平均行駛距離自2000以來(lái)已經(jīng)下降了超過(guò)十分之一。(例外的是相對(duì)較新的歐盟成員國(guó)，如波蘭。)即使在內(nèi)燃機(jī)作為是其經(jīng)濟(jì)圖騰的德國(guó)，司機(jī)們也在踩剎車(chē)。

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The trend is especially strong in big cities. One study of five European capitals—Berlin, Copenhagen, London, Paris and Vienna—found the number of driving trips made by working people was down substantially since a peak in the 1990s. In Paris the number of trips made per resident has fallen below the levels of the 1970s.

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這種趨勢(shì)在大城市尤為明顯。一項(xiàng)針對(duì)歐洲五大首都——柏林、哥本哈根、倫敦、巴黎和維也納——的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，自上世紀(jì)90年代的高峰以來(lái)，上班族的駕車(chē)出行次數(shù)大幅下降。在巴黎，人均出行次數(shù)已經(jīng)低于20世紀(jì)70年代的水平。

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No one is entirely sure why young adults are proving resistant to the charms of owning a set of wheels. The growth of the internet is one obvious possibility—the more you can shop online, or stream films at home, the less need there is to drive into town. One British report, led by Dr Kiron Chatterjee at the University of the West of England, and published in 2018, fingered a rise in insecure or poorly paid jobs, a decline in home ownership, and a tendency to spend longer in education. The rise of taxi apps such as Uber and Lyft has almost certainly contributed as well, as have higher insurance premiums for young drivers. Driving generally is more expensive. In America the average cost of owning a vehicle and driving 15,000 miles in it rose by 11% in 2022, to nearly $11,000.

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沒(méi)有人完全確定為什么年輕人擁有一輛汽車(chē)的魅力如此抗拒?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展是一個(gè)顯而易見(jiàn)的原因——你在網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物或在家看電影的時(shí)間越多，開(kāi)車(chē)進(jìn)城的需求就越少。由西英格蘭大學(xué)(University of West of England)的基隆·查特吉(Kiron Chatterjee)博士領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的一份英國(guó)報(bào)告于2018年發(fā)表，指出不穩(wěn)定或低收入的工作崗位增加，房屋產(chǎn)權(quán)持有量下降，以及人們?cè)诮逃匣ㄙM(fèi)更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的趨勢(shì)。幾乎可以肯定的是，優(yōu)步和Lyft等打車(chē)應(yīng)用的興起也起到了推波助瀾的作用，年輕司機(jī)的保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)也有所提高。開(kāi)車(chē)的成本也在提高。在美國(guó)，擁有一輛汽車(chē)并行駛15000英里的平均成本在2022年上漲了11%，達(dá)到近11000美元。

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Other reasons seem more cultural. One big motivator, at least for the most committed, is worries about climate change. Donald Shoup, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has campaigned against the excessive provision of free parking in America, says he is surprised by how climate change has spurred many young activists to start campaigning against development focused on cars (he had thought that local air pollution, or the cost, would have made the case instead).

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其他似乎更多的是文化因素。至少對(duì)最堅(jiān)定的人來(lái)說(shuō)，一個(gè)很大的動(dòng)力是對(duì)氣候變化的擔(dān)憂。加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的教授Donald Shoup反對(duì)美國(guó)過(guò)度提供免費(fèi)停車(chē)位，他說(shuō)自己很驚訝氣候變化是如何刺激許多年輕的活動(dòng)家，他們開(kāi)始反對(duì)以汽車(chē)為重點(diǎn)的發(fā)展模式(他曾認(rèn)為當(dāng)?shù)氐目諝馕廴净虺杀緯?huì)成為反對(duì)汽車(chē)的理由)。

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The falling popularity of cars among the under-40s chimes with the mood among city planners and urbanists, who have been arguing against cars for over two decades. Sometimes they have managed to get big, bold policies passed, such as the introduction of congestion-charging zones in the middle of London, Milan and Stockholm, under which drivers must pay a fee to enter. All three schemes have managed to cut traffic substantially and consistently. (A much-delayed and bitterly contested congestion-pricing scheme in New York could start later this year.)

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汽車(chē)在40歲以下人群中的受歡迎程度下降，這與城市規(guī)劃者和城市居民的情緒一致，他們反對(duì)汽車(chē)已經(jīng)有20多年了。有時(shí)，他們?cè)O(shè)法讓大膽的政策獲得通過(guò)，例如在倫敦、米蘭和斯德哥爾摩市中心引入擁堵收費(fèi)區(qū)，司機(jī)必須付費(fèi)才能進(jìn)入。這三個(gè)方案都成功地持續(xù)大幅削減交通流量。(紐約一項(xiàng)拖延已久、備受爭(zhēng)議的擁堵收費(fèi)計(jì)劃可能會(huì)在今年晚些時(shí)候啟動(dòng)。)

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So move your feet from hot pavement

所以把腳從炎熱的人行道上挪開(kāi)

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But in most cases, the squeeze on motorists has been slower and more gradual. In Britain many local councils have begun to introduce “l(fā)ow-traffic neighbourhoods”, blocking off streets to discourage passing drivers from taking shortcuts between main roads. In 2020 Oslo, the Norwegian capital, finished removing almost all on-street parking spaces from its city centre. Paris’s drastic drop in traffic volume has been partly forced by policies brought in by Ms Hidalgo, who has removed parking, narrowed streets and turned a motorway that used to run along one bank of the Seine into a park. In 2021 she announced plans to redevelop the Champs-élysées to reduce the space given over to cars by half, in favour of making room for pedestrians and urban greenery.

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但在大多數(shù)情況下，對(duì)駕車(chē)者的擠壓更加緩慢和漸進(jìn)。在英國(guó)，許多地方議會(huì)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始引入“低交通流量街區(qū)”，封鎖街道以阻止過(guò)往司機(jī)走主干道之間的捷徑。2020年，挪威首都奧斯陸取消了市中心幾乎所有的路邊停車(chē)位。巴黎的交通流量急劇下降，這在一定程度上是由伊達(dá)爾戈女士推行的政策造成的，她取消了停車(chē)位，縮窄了街道，并將一條過(guò)去沿著塞納河的高速公路變成了公園。2021年，她宣布了重新開(kāi)發(fā)香榭麗舍大街的計(jì)劃，將留給汽車(chē)的空間減少一半，為行人和城市綠化騰出空間。

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In America, New York has banned cars from Central Park, and experimented with banning them from some streets in Manhattan too. In the past few years dozens of American cities, including Minneapolis in 2018 and Boston in 2021, have removed rules that compel property developers to provide a certain amount of free parking around their buildings. California has removed such rules across the whole state, at least for buildings that are relatively close to public transport.

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在美國(guó)，紐約已經(jīng)禁止汽車(chē)進(jìn)入中央公園，并嘗試禁止汽車(chē)在曼哈頓的一些街道上行駛。在過(guò)去的幾年里，幾十個(gè)美國(guó)城市，包括2018年的明尼阿波利斯和2021年的波士頓，已經(jīng)取消了強(qiáng)制房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商在其建筑周?chē)峁┮欢〝?shù)量的免費(fèi)停車(chē)位的規(guī)定。加州已經(jīng)在全州范圍內(nèi)取消了此類(lèi)規(guī)定，至少對(duì)于那些相對(duì)靠近公共交通設(shè)施的建筑。

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In the past, such changes have often been imposed from above. Increasingly they are finding favour with at least some voters. “Chicago for 80 years has been: cars first, everyone else dead last,” says Daniel La Spata, an “alderman” (or city council member) in the north-west of the city. Now, he says, cycling activists are playing a big role in the city’s local elections. In Oxford, in England, residents in favour of one traffic-reduction scheme manned barricades to stop irate drivers pushing the barriers aside. Ms Hidalgo won a second term as mayor in 2020 on a platform that included plans to turn Paris into a “15-minute city”, a fashionable idea in which each arrondissement would have its own shops, sports facilities, schools and the like within a short walk or bike ride.

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在過(guò)去，這種改變通常是由上級(jí)強(qiáng)加的。他們?cè)絹?lái)越受到至少部分選民的青睞?！爸ゼ痈?0年來(lái)一直是:汽車(chē)第一，其他靠后，”丹尼爾·拉·斯帕塔說(shuō)，他是該市西北部的一名“市議員”(或市議會(huì)成員)?，F(xiàn)在，自行車(chē)運(yùn)動(dòng)分子在該市的地方選舉中發(fā)揮著重要作用。在英國(guó)牛津，支持一項(xiàng)交通縮減計(jì)劃的居民人為設(shè)置路障，阻止憤怒的司機(jī)將其撞開(kāi)。伊達(dá)爾戈在2020年贏得了市長(zhǎng)的第二個(gè)任期，她的施政綱領(lǐng)包括將巴黎變成“15分鐘城市”的計(jì)劃，這是一個(gè)時(shí)髦的想法，即每個(gè)區(qū)都有自己的商店、體育設(shè)施、學(xué)校等，步行或騎車(chē)的時(shí)間都不長(zhǎng)。

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As the example in Oxford shows, not everyone is keen. In Hackney, in north London, the council had to install special vandalism-proof screens on the cameras that spot motorists who break the rules. One local councillor received death threats. Chats on Nextdoor, a neighbourhood-focused social-media app, are full of angry disputes and diatribes about the measures. In Oslo the plan to remove parking spots was denounced by one politician as a “Berlin Wall against motorists”, and a local trade group said it would lead to a “dead town”. (So far, it has not.)

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正如牛津的例子所示，并不是每個(gè)人都熱衷于此。在倫敦北部的哈克尼區(qū)，市政議會(huì)不得不在攝像頭上安裝特殊的防破壞屏幕，以發(fā)現(xiàn)違反規(guī)則的司機(jī)。一名地方議員收到了死亡威脅。Nextdoor是一款專(zhuān)注于鄰里的社交媒體應(yīng)用，上面的聊天充滿了對(duì)這些措施的爭(zhēng)議和抨擊。在奧斯陸，取消停車(chē)位的計(jì)劃被一位政治家譴責(zé)為“反對(duì)駕車(chē)者的柏林墻”，一個(gè)當(dāng)?shù)刭Q(mào)易團(tuán)體稱(chēng)這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃將導(dǎo)致一個(gè)“死城”。(到目前為止，還沒(méi)有。)

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Political opposition could put the brakes on the growth of anti-car policies. In New York it is suburban politicians, whose constituents are more dependent on cars, who have resisted the new congestion charge. In Berlin the centre-right Christian Democrats have campaigned in local elections on a platform of protecting the freedom to drive. Another worry is that as city centres freed from cars become more attractive, they also become more expensive—pushing some, especially families, out to suburbs where they need cars after all. In America housing in the most walkable neighbourhoods now costs 34% more than it does in sprawling places, according to one study. New technology might change things too. Electric cars may blunt climate-change concerns. They are cheaper to run than fossil-fuelled vehicles, which could encourage more driving.

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政治上的反對(duì)可能會(huì)阻止反汽車(chē)政策的發(fā)展。在紐約，來(lái)自郊區(qū)的政客抵制收新的擁堵費(fèi)，他們的選民更加依賴(lài)汽車(chē)。在柏林，中右派歐洲人民黨在地方選舉中以保護(hù)駕駛自由為競(jìng)選綱領(lǐng)。另一個(gè)擔(dān)憂是，隨著沒(méi)有汽車(chē)的市中心變得越來(lái)越有吸引力，它們也變得越來(lái)越昂貴——將一些人，尤其是一些家庭，推到了還需要汽車(chē)的郊區(qū)。根據(jù)一項(xiàng)研究，在美國(guó)，居住在最適宜步行的街區(qū)比居住在雜亂無(wú)章的地方要貴34%。新技術(shù)也可能改變事情。電動(dòng)汽車(chē)可能會(huì)減輕對(duì)氣候變化的擔(dān)憂。它們比化石燃料汽車(chē)運(yùn)行起來(lái)更便宜，這可以鼓勵(lì)更多的駕駛行為。

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But in the parts of Europe where anti-car policies have been in place for the longest, they appear to have worked like a ratchet. Giulio Mattioli, a transport professor at Dortmund University, notes that almost nowhere in the world that has removed a big road, or pedestrianised a shopping street, has decided to reverse course. “Once people see [the benefits], they generally don’t want to go back.” Several studies, including Dr Chatterjee’s, have concluded that driving habits that are formed in youth seem to persist, with those who begin to drive later continuing to drive less, even into their 40s. If that pattern holds, the 21st century might just see the car’s high-water mark.

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但是在歐洲一些反汽車(chē)政策實(shí)施時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的地方，這些政策似乎像無(wú)法倒轉(zhuǎn)的棘輪一樣起了作用。多特蒙德工業(yè)大學(xué)的交通教授Giulio Mattioli指出，世界上幾乎沒(méi)有一個(gè)地方已經(jīng)拆除了一條大馬路，或者將一條商業(yè)街辟為步行街，并決定改變路線?！耙坏┤藗兛吹搅?好處)，他們一般就不想回去了?！卑ú樘丶┦吭趦?nèi)的幾項(xiàng)研究得出一個(gè)結(jié)論，年輕時(shí)形成的駕駛習(xí)慣似乎可以一直持續(xù)，那些較晚開(kāi)始駕駛的人會(huì)逐漸減少開(kāi)車(chē)，這個(gè)現(xiàn)象甚至持續(xù)到40多歲。如果這種模式成立，21世紀(jì)可能是汽車(chē)最后的巔峰。