正文翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：翻譯熊 轉載請注明出處

What countries in Southeast asia will have more potential in the next 5 years?

未來5年，東南亞哪些國家更有潛力?

評論翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：翻譯熊 轉載請注明出處

Yue Yie, former Advisory Board Member (2017-2019)
Answered Jan 23, 2019 · Upvoted by Sendy Filemon, Born in and been living in Indonesia for 30+ years.
Whether it is within 5 years, 10 years or even 50 years it is always going to be Indonesia. My reason? It’s pretty much a democratic country unlike Vietnam or Cambodia or even Singapore. Despite its flaws Indonesia is a democratic country where freedom of press is still visible, its president can’t hold office for more than 2 terms and its people are willing to experiment for bad or for good, leaders who they feel can bring their country to a brighter future.
Indonesia also has all the other right ingredients to become a major force. It has a huge population with stable population growth, abundant natural resources and a hardworking and tough workforce. Just ask any plantation owners in Malaysia who would they pick as foreign workers and I can guarantee that they would pick as many Indonesians workers that they can get their hands to over Bangladeshis, Burmese or Nepalis etc. It’s a generally accepted fact here that Indonesian workers are known for their hardiness and strength doing menial jobs compared to other nationalities especially in the demanding plantation and construction sectors. I have seen and known a couple of Indonesian guys overseeing the development of a 60 acres palm land on their own. Impressed by their commitment and dedication the owner even gave 10 acres of his palm land to both of them as a reward as means to persuade them to stay and to give a lifetime commitment to continue working on the plantation.

Yue Yie, 前顧問委員會成員(2017-2019)
不管是在5年、10年甚至50年之內，都會是印度尼西亞。我的理由?它是一個民主國家，與越南、柬埔寨甚至新加坡都不一樣。盡管存在缺陷，但印尼是一個民主國家，新聞自由依然可見，總統(tǒng)的任期不能超過兩屆，人民愿意嘗試壞的或好的，以及那些認為可以為這個國家?guī)砀饷魑磥淼念I導人。

印度尼西亞還具備成為一支主要力量的所有其他有利因素。它人口眾多，人口增長穩(wěn)定，自然資源豐富，勞動人口吃苦耐勞。只要問問馬來西亞的種植園主，他們會選擇誰作為外籍工人，我可以保證，他們會選擇盡可能多的印尼工人。這是一個普遍接受的事實，在這里，印尼工人是眾所周知的吃苦耐勞并做著卑微的體力工作，相比其他民族，特別是在要求苛刻的種植園和建筑行業(yè)。我曾見過并認識幾個印度尼西亞人，他們獨自監(jiān)督一塊60英畝的棕櫚地的開發(fā)。他們的承諾和奉獻給農場主留下了深刻的印象，農場主甚至給了他們10英畝的棕櫚地作為獎勵，作為說服他們留下來的手段，并給予終身承諾，繼續(xù)在種植園工作。

Unlike let say Vietnam or the Philippines, Indonesia is as big and massive as both China and India but with a mixture of culture from both, a neat thing to have as a foil between the two extremes. It is capable of having its own domestic socio economic ecosystem without having to rely on other major markets to thrive. It is interesting to note that unlike what’s happening with China and India, Indonesia is breaking into the next phase of the digital economy at a stage where the tech revolution is already matured enough for them to reap the benefits without the pitfalls China and India had to face at the start of the economic revolution. Now Indonesia can pick and choose whatever approaches and models that they like and suits them the most.
Saving the best for last, Indonesia is far from being short of high skilled professionals as well, it currently has 2 unicorn class startups in Traveloka and Tokopedia not to mention Go Jek which already making waves across the SEA region as we speak. The scary thing is, it should be noted that both startups wouldn’t be as successful and as big as it is now without the participation of ordinary Indonesians willing to try new things including to subscribe to such services in the first place. A telling sign that ordinary Indonesians are not as closed minded as some people are trying say all over the medias and news.

Antonia Suwandi Hwa Hwa
Jan 23, 2019 · 23 upvotes
I think, being a democratic country is a disadvantage rather than advantage. I’m an Indonesian, but speaking of ASEAN, I highly rate Vietnam. Because they copy everything what China government have done, plain copy-paste. If we see China is now successful, so will Vietnam. Their governments are oligarchic, not autocracy, that makes the power balanced. In other hand, democracy just slows down everything, not good for economy.

我認為，作為一個民主國家是一種劣勢而不是優(yōu)勢。我是印尼人，但談到東盟，我很看重越南。因為他們復制中國所做的一切，簡單的復制粘貼。
如果我們看到中國現(xiàn)在成功了，越南也會成功。寡頭，這使得權力得以平衡。另一方面，民主只會讓一切都慢下來，對經濟沒有好處。

Yue Yie
Original Author · Jan 31, 2019 · 16 upvotes
You have valid points but I believe Indonesian version of democracy is way better than some other democratic countries and they are learning fast thanks to the internet. The model China and Vietnam are using may be effective in the short term but when it saturates ordinary citizens will end up becoming drones in an ant or bee like ecosystem. The reason why many among the well off among the Koreans, Singaporeans and Chinese leaving their homelands is because of the same drone culture embedded in their socio economic system.

你的觀點是正確的，但是我相信印尼版的民主比其他一些民主國家要好得多，多虧了互聯(lián)網，他們學得很快。中國和越南正在采用的模式可能在短期內是有效的，但當它飽和時，普通公民最終將成為螞蟻或蜜蜂一樣的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中的無人機。
許多韓國人、新加坡人和中國人離開家鄉(xiāng)的原因是，他們的社會經濟體系中嵌入了同樣的無人機文化。

Pushpendra Kumar
Jan 24, 2019 · 27 upvotes including Yue Yie
yeah but economy isn’t everything. Economic growth has to be matched with a healthy society and intellectual capital growth. A china model almost goes against that. Vietnam is in dire straits on that front completely
Indonesia is on a right track like India and people’s willingness to participate in this growth is more important than people forced to participate

是的，但是經濟不是一切。經濟增長必須與健康的社會和智力資本的增長相匹配。中國模式幾乎與此背道而馳。而越南在這方面也完全處于水深火熱之中。
印尼正走在印度那樣的正確軌道上，人們參與這一增長的意愿比人們被迫參與更重要。

Do Duc Nam
Jun 23, 2019 · 3 upvotes
India are not on the right track, never before, in the 80s, people used to talk about how India will lead the Asia economy ahead of China also having Kaifeng reform, the fact is China lead the Asia economy and Vietnam are slowly learning and follow that path, if India are really on the right track, why India life quality can only compete with SEA countries, tbh can only compare to CMLV countries, Vietnamese consume more electricity, have higher HDI per capital, have better internet connection, live longer than Indian even we have the same GDP per capita, Indian should stop illusion yourself, Indonesia are one the right track for now, same as China, not India.
Even China model against healthy society and intellectual capital growth, why China don’t have caste system, deep religion issue, massive poverty and Chinese students comeback to China after study in Western universities, why Indian don’t comeback to India to make India a better country ? The Vietnam society are better than India society, same as China society are ahead of India’s.

印度沒有走在正確的軌道上，從來沒有。
在80年代，人們常說印度將如何領導亞洲經濟并領先中國，印度也會改革開放。事實上，中國引領著亞洲經濟，而越南正在慢慢地學習和遵循這條道路，如果印度真的在正確的軌道上，為什么印度的生活質量只能與東盟國家競爭?
事實上，印度只能和CMLV（意義不明）國家相提并論，越南人消耗更多的電力，有更高的人類發(fā)展指數(shù)，有更好的互聯(lián)網連接，比印度人更長壽，即使我們有相同的人均GDP，印度人也應該停止幻想。印尼走在正確的軌道，和中國一樣，但印度沒有。
即使中國模式是反對健康社會和智力資本增長的，為什么中國沒有種姓制度，沒有嚴重的宗教問題，沒有大規(guī)模的貧困，中國學生在西方大學畢業(yè)后回到中國，為什么印度人不回到印度，讓印度成為一個更好的國家? 越南社會比印度社會好，中國社會比印度社會好。

Pushpendra Kumar
Jun 24, 2019 · 1 upvote
But looking at your English I am quite concerned about education level in Vietnam

但是看看你的英語，我很關心越南的教育水平。

Ngan Dang
Jul 9, 2019 · 10 upvotes
English is not the main barometer to decide the education level, Japanese and Koreans are not good at English but see how developed they are.Vietnam has some similarity to east asia culture they lean less to the West culture so the gov doesn’t teach much English in school, Vietnamese youth try to teach themselves English, so look how much self drive is that. In my opinion which country ppl have the stronger drive and intelligence will develop faster, I see that growing in VN youth everyday.

英語不是決定教育水平的主要晴雨表，日本人和韓國人不擅長英語，但看看他們有多發(fā)達。越南和東亞文化有一些相似之處，他們不那么依賴西方文化，所以政府在學校教的英語不多，越南年輕人試著自學英語，所以看看他們有多大的自覺性。在我看來，哪個國家的人有更強的動力和智能會發(fā)展得更快，我每天都能看到越南年輕人的成長。

Lei Wenda (雷文達)
Jan 2 · 1 upvote
He ran out of counterarguments, so he resorted to insults and nitpicking trivial things.

他已經沒有反駁的余地了，所以他訴諸于侮辱和雞毛蒜皮的小事。

Conrad Strife, works at The College and University Experience
Answered Jan 23, 2019
No one can exactly predict who’s going to be successful in the future. All Southeast asian countries I believe have potentials to be successful.
Who said before that United States of America, a colonized country by England (majority) and Spain (minority), who were built by rebels of the English King, would be a very powerful and influential nation in less than a century?
Who said England would be a dominant and powerful country in just 70 years because of their greatest Queen Elizabeth I and her peoples loyalty? Who said it would be the biggest and most powerful Empire during 1700s & 1800s if it was just a pawn or a very poor country 200 years ago?
Who said Singapore would be a very developed country in just a span of a few decades from being a developing/third world country full of drug issues? Who said it would be one of the safest countries today last 70 years or so when the drug crimes were still prent? Singapore became the richest country in South east asia during late 60s or early 70s and it is still today. Some people back in the past said that Singapore would be a failed state because it’s just a city without natural resources. They asked, how could it survive without Malaysia, which has plenty of natural resources? Get back to these people who said these criticisms. Tell them you are a very proud Singaporean. These critics will eventually realize they were wrong.

Conrad Strife, 有在學院和大學工作的經驗
沒有人能準確地預測誰將來會成功。我相信所有東南亞國家都有成功的潛力。
在此之前，誰說過，由英國國王的叛亂者建立的被英國(多數(shù))和西班牙(少數(shù))殖民統(tǒng)治的美利堅合眾國，會在不到一個世紀的時間里成為一個非常強大和有影響力的國家?

誰說英國將在70年內成為一個統(tǒng)治和強大的國家，因為他們最偉大的女王伊麗莎白一世和她的人民的忠誠?誰說它會是18世紀和19世紀最強大的帝國，如果它只是一個卒子或者是200年前一個非常貧窮的國家?

誰說新加坡會在幾十年內從一個毒品泛濫的發(fā)展中/第三世界國家變成一個非常發(fā)達的國家?誰說在過去70年左右的時間里，當毒品犯罪仍然猖獗的時候，它會是最安全的國家之一? 新加坡在60年代末或70年代初成為東南亞最富有的國家，至今仍是如此。過去有些人說新加坡會是一個失敗的國家，因為它只是一個沒有自然資源的城市。他們質疑，離開了擁有豐富自然資源的馬來西亞，它如何能生存?回到那些提出這些批評的人。告訴他們你是一個非常自豪的新加坡人。這些批評者最終會認識到他們錯了。

Philippines was the richest country in South east asia and second to Japan in Asia in the last 70 years or so. It was admired by South Koreans during the Philippines glorious days when South Korea was still undeveloped/developing. Its capital was termed as the “Paris of Asia” because of its European beauty. Manila was one of the most destroyed cities during World War II but it happened to recover in just a decade. It was governed by the Americans and Spanish before the natives. It almost had the firsts, from having the first Airline, first metro system, etc. Now it is free and independent, being governed by its own people. Where is it now? How do you judge this country today? Third world? Many Beggars? Street Children? Dirty? Over-populated? Brain Drain? Undisciplined? Mismanaged? What else offending generalizations/stereotypes do you have about this country?
Everything has its potentials as long as you see that it keeps moving on and does not stop/quit. Everything has the potential to succeed as long as you see it is growing, no matter how fast or slow it is. Everything has the potential to fail/fall as long as you witness its degradation, mismanagement, and treacheries.
South east asia has 10 members (East Timor is still not recognized by most SEA countries). I’ll just state my own positive personal opinion about their potentials to be successful. I might sound biased about my own country but it’s not because of my pride but because, I’m just of course, very supportive of my own country, just like how you would be for your own country. But rest assured that this will not be offensive and my opinions will be based from facts as much as possible together with my personal observations and predictions which are very subjective.
POTENTIALS:

（略）

SUMMARY:
Singapore is at Stage 3.
Malaysia is transitioning from Stage 2 to Stage 3
Thailand and Indonesia are at Stage 2
Philippines and Vietnam are transitioning from Stage 1 to Stage 2
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are at Stage 1
(I did not include Brunei because I haven’t seen Brunei in the list of this so-called “Stage” metrics. Brunei however, has unquestionably well-doing citizens because of its per capita though I do not generalize it at all.
WARNING:
If you are going to comment why this is ranked like this or that, just don’t do it please. We all gather information from the internet and every website shows different rankings. This country might be ranked higher in this website than the other website, but they still almost have the same metrics. If you believe that the website that you saw has the real facts, then stick with it. I won’t forcefully impose the metrics that I got from different websites to your belief. If you believe your website of reference is better, stick with it. I don’t really 100% believe the websites that I used as a reference but for me, they still show at least the average results of their metrics. We don’t know the very exact details especially that different websites give different results but at least, they are all not very far from each other. They are still all related. And for me, this is how I put the average of their metrics based on the different websites I relied on. Good Vibes only please :)
END NOTES:
We are all humans here, South east asians specifically. We are not being defined by the rankings of our country, so let’s get away from any uneducated stereotypes and teases. We compete to reach success and development, not to impose crab mentality. If a country is poorer, let’s support it and give hope, instead of teasing or bullying it. If a country is richer, let’s admire and still support it for its continuous progress.
I believe that if a country had managed to be progressive in the past, then it has no reason not to be progressive again in the future. For those that had not been progressive even in the past, you don’t have any ways to go but to aim higher and higher. When you are at the bottom, the only way for you is to get at the top. If you are at the top, it’s either you stay or you fall.
All ASEAN countries have big potentials. If European unx managed itself to be progressive, why can’t we? ASEAN is a very young regional association. We never started by having everything. But once we grow, we can have everything. There should not be an end to our growth. Humans die, but civilizations must not. Our ancestors left the world worse than we found it. We, together, shall leave the world a better place than we found it. If you are lucky to be born in a better place, then keep the world a better place.
Everyone has differences, everyone has similarities. Every countries has both positive and negative traits. We must respect each other. We, ASEANs, must work as a team in developing our countries and region. If others can do, what’s the reason we can’t?
Post scxt: My highest bet are those from top 1 to top 7. Since Singapore is already developed and Brunei is somewhat developed, I’ll vote Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam (by rank) as countries with most/highest potentials, whilst Laos and Cambodia with moderate potentials, and Myanmar with the least potential as of “today”. This vote of mine is from my personal perspective alone and does not intend to offend anyone. This actually was just requested by a commentator, which is very insignificant for me, but I still put it anyways.
Development growth might change tomorrow, next week, next year, or next decade, we might now know. A quiet country can rise so loudly tomorrow and a loud country can fall so quietly tomorrow. Let’s all just appreciate the potentials of all these countries rather that betting for a winner. There’s no winner. They all have potentials. It’s just that a country has more this than the other but that still doesn’t make that country a winner. They both have it but not always at the same level. Something will always be higher but time changes and so are the statuses of these countries. Country A might have a better “a” but worse “b”. Country B might have a better “b” but worse “a”. In the end, they are just the same, both progressing countries in different ways.
There’s no loser countries here. All countries are winners because all of them have the potentials. If you are categorizing a country as loser, then you don’t deserve to be an ASEAN member. You are ignorant hands-off. We made ASEAN to unite, not to fight. ASEAN is not a loser, therefore it has no loser countries. We are here in this association to lift ourselves up, not to pull someone down just to feel better or higher. No country is more perfect. All countries are perfect in their own ways.

總結：
新加坡處在第三階段。
馬來處在第二和第三階段的過渡階段。
泰國和印尼處在第二階段。
菲律賓和越南處在第一和第二階段的過渡階段。
柬埔寨，老撾和緬甸處在第一階段。
(我沒有把文萊包括在內，因為我還沒有在這個所謂的“階段”指標列表中看到文萊。然而，文萊無疑有良好的公民，因為它的人均GDP很高，盡管我沒有囊括它。)

提示：
如果你要評論為什么這個排名是這樣或那樣的，請不要這樣做。我們都是從互聯(lián)網上收集信息，每個網站顯示不同的排名。這個國家在這個網站上的排名可能比其他網站高，但它們的指標幾乎是一樣的。如果你相信你看到的網站是真實的，那就堅持下去。我不會強行把我從不同網站得到的指標強加給你。如果你認為你的參考網站更好，堅持下去。我并不是100%相信我引用的那些網站，但對我來說，它們至少顯示了它們的指標的平均結果。我們不知道確切的細節(jié)，不同的網站會給出不同的結果。但至少，它們差距并不大，它們仍然是相關的。對我來說，這就是我如何根據(jù)我所依賴的不同網站計算出的它們的平均值。請嘴下留情~

最后：
我們都是人，尤其是東南亞人。我們沒有被國家的排名所定義，所以讓我們遠離任何沒有受過教育的刻板印象和戲弄。我們競爭是為了獲得成功和發(fā)展，而不是強加螃蟹心態(tài)。如果一個國家更窮，讓我們支持它，給它希望，而不是取笑或欺負它。如果一個國家更富有，讓我們欽佩它，并繼續(xù)支持它的不斷進步。
我相信，如果一個國家在過去成功地實現(xiàn)了進步，那么它就沒有理由在未來不再進步。對于那些甚至在過去也沒有進步的人，你沒有任何辦法，只能更加努力。當你在底層時，唯一的方法就是爬到頂層。如果你是在頂端，要么你留下，要么你倒下。東盟國家都有很大潛力。

如果歐盟設法使自己進步，為什么我們不能?東盟是一個非常年輕的地區(qū)組織。我們從不一開始就擁有一切。但是一旦我們發(fā)展，我們就可以擁有一切。我們的發(fā)展不應該停止。人會死亡，但文明不會滅亡。我們的祖先留下的這個世界的比我們發(fā)現(xiàn)它時還要糟糕。我們將共同為世界留下一個比我們發(fā)現(xiàn)時更美好的地方。如果你有幸出生在一個更好的地方，那么就讓世界變得更好。
每個人都有不同，每個人都有相似之處。每個國家都有其優(yōu)點和缺點。我們必須互相尊重。我們東盟國家必須在發(fā)展中國家和地區(qū)團結一致。如果別人能做到，為什么我們不能?

補充：
我們現(xiàn)在可能知道，發(fā)展增長可能在明天、下周、明年或下一個十年發(fā)生變化。一個安靜的國家明天會崛起得如此之快，一個吵鬧的國家明天會衰落得如此之快。讓我們欣賞所有這些國家的潛力，而不是打賭誰會贏。這里沒有贏家，它們都有可能。只是一個國家比另一個國家擁有更多，但這仍然不能使那個國家成為贏家。他們都有，但并不總是在同一水平上。有些東西總是會更高，但是時間會改變，這些國家的地位也會改變。