TED演講者：Shankar Vedantam / 尚卡爾·維丹塔姆

演講標題：You don't actually know what your future self wants / 你其實不知道未來的自己想要什么

內容概要："You are constantly becoming a new person," says journalist Shankar Vedantam. In a talk full of beautiful storytelling, he explains the profound impact of something he calls the "illusion of continuity" -- the belief that our future selves will share the same views, perspectives and hopes as our current selves -- and shows how we can more proactively craft the people we are to become.

“你在不斷變成一個新的人，”記者尚卡爾·維丹塔姆（Shankar Vendantam）說。 在充滿美麗故事的演講中，他解釋了他稱之為“連續(xù)性錯覺”的東西的深遠影響——一個讓我們相信未來的自己將與現(xiàn)在的自己擁有相同的觀點和希望的看法——并展示了我們如何可以更主動地塑造我們要成為的人。

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【1】When I was 12 years old, I fractured my foot playing soccer.

我十二歲的時候, 踢足球摔斷了腳。

【2】I didn't tell my parents when I got home that night, because the next day, my dad was taking me to see a movie, a soccer movie.

那天晚上回家時 我沒有告訴父母, 因為第二天, 我爸爸要帶我去看電影, 一部足球電影。

【3】I worried that if I told my parents about the foot, they would take me to see a doctor.

我怕如果我把腳的事告訴父母, 他們會帶我去看醫(yī)生。

【4】I didn't want to see a doctor, I wanted to see the movie.

可我不想看醫(yī)生啊, 我想看的是電影。

【5】The next morning, my dad goes, "It's nice out. Why don't we walk to the theater."

第二天早上, 我爸說, “天氣不錯。 咱們走著去電影院吧。”

【6】(Laughter) It was a mile away.

（笑聲） 那可是一英里的路。

【7】As we go, he says, "Why are you limping?"

我們在路上走著,他就問: “你怎么瘸了？”

【8】I tell him I have something in my shoe.

我告訴他,是我鞋子里有東西。

【9】The movie was spectacular.

那部電影非常好看。

【10】It told the story of some of soccer's greatest stars, great Brazilian players.

講述了一些足球界的巨星, 幾位優(yōu)秀的巴西球員們的故事。

【11】I was ecstatic.

我當時激動壞了。

【12】At the end of the movie, I told my dad about the foot; he took me to see an orthopedic doctor, who put my foot in a cast for three weeks.

電影結束后, 我告訴了我爸爸腳的事。 他帶我去看了骨科醫(yī)生, 醫(yī)生給我的腳打了三個禮拜的石膏。

【13】I tell you the story today, because four decades later, I don't really consider myself a soccer fan anymore.

我今天給你們講這個故事, 是因為四十年后, 我已經不再是一個足球粉絲了。

【14】Today, my sports fandom is tuned to another kind of football.

如今,我的體育興趣已經轉向了 另一種足球（美式足球）。

【15】Now my 12-year-old self wouldn't just find this incomprehensible.

12 歲的我 不僅會覺得無法理解。

【16】My 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal.

12 歲的我 會把這視作背叛。

【17】Now you might say we all change from the time we are 12, so let me fast-forward a decade.

你可能會說, 我們都和 12 歲的時候不一樣了。 那讓我快進個十年。

【18】When I was 22, I was a freshly minted electronics engineer in southern India.

我 22 歲的時候, 我是印度南部 一名剛畢業(yè)的電子工程師。

【19】I had no idea that three decades later, I would be living in the United States, that I would be a journalist, and that I would be the host of a podcast called "Hidden Brain."

我根本不知道三十年后, 我會住在美國, 成為一位記者, 并成為播客 《隱秘的大腦》的主持人。

【20】It's a show about human behavior and how to apply psychological science to our lives.

這是一個有關人類行為和 如何把心理學應用到生活中的播客。

【21】Now we didn’t have podcasts when I graduated from college.

我畢業(yè)的那時候, 我們都還沒有播客。

【22】We didn’t walk around with smartphones in our pockets.

智能手機也還沒有普及。

【23】So my future was not just unknown; it was unknowable.

所以我的未來不僅僅是未知; 而是“不可知”。

【24】All of us have seen what this is like in the last three years, as we slowly try and emerge from the COVID pandemic.

在過去的三年里,在我們慢慢嘗試 擺脫新冠疫情的過程中, 也都見識到了這點。

【25】If we think about the people we used to be three years ago, before the pandemic, we can see how we have changed.

如果我們回想三年前, 疫情前的自己, 我們都能看得出自己的變化。

【26】We can see how anxiety and isolation and upheavals in our lives and livelihoods, how this has changed us, changed our outlook, changed our perspective.

我們可以看到焦慮、孤獨、 生活和生計的動蕩, 是如何改變我們、我們的看法, 和思想的。

【27】But there is a paradox here, and the paradox is when we look backwards, we can see enormous changes in who we have become.

但這里有一個悖論, 當我們回看過去, 我們能看出自身的巨大變化。

【28】But when we look forwards, we tend to imagine that we're going to be the same people in the future.

但當我們展望未來, 我們卻容易把未來的自己 想作和現(xiàn)在一樣。

【29】Now sure, we imagine the world is going to be different.

當然,我們想象的世界是不同的。

【30】We know what AI and climate change is going to mean for a very different world.

人工智能和氣候變化 會讓世界都變得不一樣。

【31】But we don't imagine that we ourselves will have different perspectives, different views, different preferences in the future.

但我們不會想象我們在未來 會有不同的觀點、 看法或喜好。

【32】I call this the illusion of continuity.

我把這個現(xiàn)象 叫做“連續(xù)性錯覺”。

【33】And I think one reason this happens is that when we look backwards, the contrast with our prior selves to who we are today is so clear.

我認為發(fā)生這種情況的一個原因是, 當我們回顧過去時, 我們以前的自己 和今天的自己會形成鮮明對比。

【34】We can see it so clearly that we have become different people.

我們可以明顯看到, 我們成為了不同的人。

【35】When we look forward, we can imagine ourselves being a little older, a little grayer, but we don't imagine, fundamentally, that we're going to have a different outlook or perspective, that we're going to be different people.

當我們展望未來時, 我們會想象自己老了一點、 頭發(fā)灰了一點, 但我們不會,從根本上想象 我們會有不同的想法或觀點, 成為不同的人。

【36】And so those changes seem more amorphous.

因此, 這些變化似乎顯得更加虛無縹緲。

【37】I want to make the case to you today that this illusion has profound consequences not just for whether we become soccer players or podcast hosts, but for matters involving life and death.

今天我想向你們證明, 這種錯覺不僅對我們 成為足球運動員或者播客主持人, 而且對涉及生死的問題 都會造成深遠的影響。

【38】Let me introduce you to John and Stephanie Rinka.

讓我向你介紹一下約翰和 斯蒂芬妮·林卡（Stephanie Rinka）。

【39】We did a story about them for "Hidden Brain" some years ago.

幾年前,我們在《隱秘的大腦》上 講過他們的故事。

【40】This photograph was taken in 1971, on their wedding day.

這張照片是在 1971 年, 他們結婚當日拍的。

【41】John and Stephanie had just eloped, and gotten married at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts.

約翰和斯蒂芬妮當時剛剛私奔, 并在馬薩諸塞州的 劍橋市政廳結了婚。

【42】He was 22, she was 19.

他年方 22, 而她 19 歲。

【43】John told me that after they got married, they traveled to different parts of the country.

約翰告訴我,他們倆結婚后, 一起到全國各地旅游。

【44】They eventually settled in North Carolina.

最后在北卡羅來納州定居。

【45】John became a high school basketball coach, Stephanie became a nurse.

約翰成為了高中籃球教練, 斯特芬妮成為了一名護士。

【46】And because they lived in a rural part of the state, she would often make house visits to patients.

因為他們住在該州的農村地區(qū), 她會經常上門拜訪病人。

【47】Many of the patients she saw were very sick.

她看過的許多病人都病得很重。

【48】They had terminal illnesses, very low quality of life.

他們身患絕癥, 生活質量極低。

【49】And when Stephanie came home from these visits, she was often shaken.

當斯蒂芬妮結束這些家訪回家時, 經常表露出焦慮不安的樣子。

【50】And she would tell John, "John, if I ever get a terminal illness, please do nothing to prolong my suffering.

她會告訴約翰, “約翰,如果我哪天身患絕癥, 請一定不要延長我的痛苦。

【51】I care more about quality of life than quantity of life.

我更關注生命的質量, 而不是長度?！?/p>

【52】In her more dramatic moments, she would say, "John, if I ever get that sick, just shoot me.

有時候她會更激烈地說, “約翰,如果我哪天病重成那樣, 你就一槍打死我。

【53】Just shoot me."

一槍打死我?！?/p>

【54】And John Rinka would look lovingly at his wife, his healthy wife, and he would say, "OK, Steph. OK."

而約翰·林卡則會充滿愛意地 看著他的妻子,他那健康的妻子, 然后說, “好的,斯蒂芬,好的?！?/p>

【55】Fast-forward a couple of decades.

快進到幾十年后。

【56】In her late fifties, Stephanie begins to slur her words.

在斯特芬妮五十多歲時, 她開始口齒不清。

【57】She goes to see a doctor, who runs some tests, and he diagnoses her with ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease.

她看了醫(yī)生,做了些檢查, 醫(yī)生診斷出她患有肌萎縮側索硬化癥, 即盧伽雷氏病。

【58】He tells her it's fatal. It's incurable.

他告訴她這是致命的。 無法治愈。

【59】And he tells her that a day is going to come when she is no longer able to breathe on her own.

他告訴她,會有這么一天, 她將無法自主呼吸。

【60】Stephanie, being Stephanie, decides to extract as much joy and pleasure from life as she can, she spends time with friends and family.

斯蒂芬妮,以她的性格, 決定盡可能多地 從生活中汲取快樂, 她與朋友和家人一起度過時光。

【61】As she gets sicker, she and John spend some time on a beautiful beach that they both love.

她的病更重之后, 她和約翰在一個 他們都很喜歡的沙灘上過著日子。

【62】But there comes a day when Stephanie, in fact, is no longer able to breathe.

但終究還是有一天, 斯蒂芬妮確實無法呼吸了。

【63】She's gasping for air, and John takes her to the hospital.

她幾乎喘不過氣來, 約翰帶她去了醫(yī)院。

【64】And a nurse at the hospital asked Stephanie, "Mrs. Rinka, would you like us to put you on a ventilator?"

醫(yī)院的一位護士問斯蒂芬妮, “林卡夫人, 要不要我們給你裝上呼吸機？”

【65】And Stephanie says yes.

斯蒂芬妮說要。

【66】John is flabbergasted.

約翰目瞪口呆。

【67】They've been having this conversation for 30 years.

這同一段對話 他們已經進行了 30 年。

【68】Surely that's not what Stephanie wants.

這絕對不是斯特芬妮想要的。

【69】He doesn't say anything.

他什么都沒說。

【70】The next morning, he says, "Steph, when the nurse asked you yesterday if you wanted to go on a ventilator, and you said yes, is that really what you want?"

第二天早上,他說, “斯蒂芬, 護士昨天問你是否要使用呼吸機時, 你說了要, 這是你真的想要的嗎？”

【71】And Stephanie Rinka said yes.

斯特芬妮·林卡說是的。

【72】Now, you might argue that if Stephanie had written out an advance directive, if Stephanie had come into the hospital unconscious, if the nurse had asked John, "What is it your wife would want?"

現(xiàn)在,你可能會爭辯說, 如果斯蒂芬妮寫了一份預先指示, 如果斯蒂芬妮 被送入醫(yī)院時昏迷不醒, 如果護士問的是約翰, “你妻子會想要什么？”

【73】John, without hesitation, would have said, "Of course she does not want to go on a ventilator.

約翰會毫不猶豫地說, “她當然不想上呼吸機,

【74】We should figure out a way to keep her as comfortable as possible so that she can die with dignity."

我們應該想辦法讓她盡可能舒服, 讓她有尊嚴地死去?！?/p>

【75】But of course, this only solves the legal conundrum.

但當然, 這只能解決法律上的難題。

【76】It doesn't solve the ethical problem here.

它沒有解決此處的道德問題。

【77】And the ethical problem is that Stephanie, at age 39, as she was healthy, had no real conception of what Stephanie at age 59, with a terminal illness, gasping for air, would really want.

道德問題是斯蒂芬妮在 39 歲時, 因為她很健康, 她對 59 歲的 身患重癥的斯特芬妮, 對她在難以呼吸的時候 想要的東西 沒有真正的概念。

【78】For the older Stephanie, her younger self might as well have been a stranger.

對于年長的斯特芬妮來說, 年輕的她 也許就像一個陌生人一樣。

【79】A stranger who was trying to make life and death decisions for her.

一個想要幫她做生死決策的陌生人。

【80】Philosophers have talked for many years about a thought experiment; it’s sometimes called the “ship of Theseus”.

哲學家們多年來 一直在討論的一個思想實驗, 有時候被叫做“忒修斯之船”。

【81】The great warrior Theseus returned from his exploits, his ship was stationed in the harbor as a memorial.

偉大的戰(zhàn)士忒修斯功成身退, 他的船停泊在港口作為一個紀念碑。

【82】And over the decades, parts of the ship began to rot and decay, and as this happened, planks were replaced by new planks.

幾十年來, 船的某些部分開始腐爛 隨著這種情況的發(fā)生, 木板被新木板所取代。

【83】Until, eventually, every part of the ship of Theseus was built from something new.

直到最后,忒修斯之船的每一部分 都是用新東西造的。

【84】And philosophers, starting with Plato, have asked the question "If every part of the ship of Theseus is new, is this still the ship of Theseus?"

于是從柏拉圖開始, 哲學家們提出了 這樣一個問題: “如果忒修斯之船的每部分都是新的, 那它還是忒修斯之船嗎？”

【85】You and I are walking examples of the ship of Theseus.

你我都是忒修斯之船 活生生的例子。

【86】Our cells turn over all the time.

我們的細胞一直在翻新。

【87】The people you were 10 years ago are not the people you are today.

10 年前的你不是今天的你。

【88】Biologically, you have become a different person.

在生物學上, 你已經變成了一個不同的人。

【89】But I believe something much more profound happens at a psychological level.

但我相信,更深層次的東西 發(fā)生在心理層面。

【90】Because you could argue a ship is not just a collection of planks, a body is not just a collection of cells.

因為你可以爭辯說, 一艘船不僅僅是一堆木板, 一個身體也不僅僅是一堆細胞。

【91】It's the organization of the planks that makes the ship.

是木板的整體組成 造就了這艘船。

【92】It's the organization of the cells that make the body.

也是細胞的整體組成 構成了身體。

【93】If you preserve the organization, even if you swap planks or cells in and out, you still have the ship, you still have the same body.

如果你把整體保留下來, 即使你把木板或細胞換進換出, 你有的還是同一艘船, 你也仍然有相同的身體。

【94】But at a psychological level, each new layer that's put down is not identical to the one that came before it.

但在心理層面上, 新放上去的每一層 都和之前那層不一樣。

【95】The famous plasticity of the brain that we've all heard so much about means that, on an ongoing basis, you are constantly becoming a new person.

我們都聽說過 大腦出了名的可塑性, 那意味著,你一直都在 持續(xù)成為一個新的人。

【96】This has profound consequences for so many aspects of our lives.

這對我們生活的方方面面 都有著深遠的意義。

【97】You know, I have the illusion that 12-year-old Shankar who wanted to be a soccer star, and 52-year-old Shankar who is the podcast host and 82-year-old Shankar,

我有一個錯覺,那就是 想成為足球明星的 12 歲的尚卡爾（Shankar）, 和 52 歲的播客主持人尚卡爾, 和 82 歲的,

【98】who will hopefully be living one day on a beautiful beach, that these are all the same person.

但愿是已經生活在一個 美麗沙灘上的尚卡爾, 都是同一個人。

【99】Is that really true?

這是真的嗎？

【100】Let's set aside the philosophical questions for another day, and let me tell you about some of the practical challenges of this problem.

讓我們改天再聊哲學問題, 讓我來告訴你一些 這個問題的 實際挑戰(zhàn)。

【101】When we make promises to other people, when we promise to love someone till death do us part, we are making a promise that a stranger is going to have to keep.

當我們向其他人許下諾言, 當我們許諾 對某人的愛至死不渝, 我們是在許下一個 讓一個陌生人去信守的諾言。

【102】Our future selves might not share our views, our perspectives, our hopes.

我們未來的自己可能 不會同意我們的觀點、看法和希望。

【103】When we lock people up and throw away the key, it's not just that the people we imprison are going to be different in 30 years.

當我們把人關起來扔掉鑰匙時, 不僅僅是我們關押的人 在 30 年后會有所不同。

【104】We are going to be different 30 years from now.

30 年后,我們自己也會不一樣。

【105】Our need for retribution, for vengeance, might not be what it is today.

我們對復仇的需要可能與今天不同。

【106】(Applause) When we pass laws, we often do so with an intent of making a better country, improving our country.

（掌聲） 當我們通過法律時, 我們這樣做的目的 往往是建設一個更好的國家, 去改善我們的國家。

【107】But any country that's been around for a few decades has numerous laws on the books that made perfect sense when they were crafted -- in fact, that were seen as enlightened when they were crafted -- and today, they seem antiquated or absurd, or even unconscionable.

但是任何一個 已經存在了幾十年的國家 都有大量的法律法規(guī), 這些在制定時非常合理的法律—— 事實上,甚至是 被認為是很有遠見的法律—— 而如今,它們似乎顯得 過時或荒謬,甚至不合情理。

【108】And all of these examples stem from the same problem, which is that we imagine that we represent the end of history.

這些例子都源于同一個問題, 那就是我們認為 自己代表了歷史的終結。

【109】That the future is only going to be more of the same.

認為未來只會是一樣的。

【110】I have three pieces of advice on how to wrestle with this wicked problem.

關于如何解決這個棘手的問題, 我有三條建議。

【111】And it is a wicked problem, because all of us spend so much of our lives trying to make our future selves happy.

這確實是一個棘手的問題, 因為我們每天都過著 想要讓未來的自己快樂的日子。

【112】We don't stop to ask, "Is it possible that in 20 or 30 years, our future selves are going to look back at us with bewilderment, with resentment.

我們卻不會停下來問一問, “有沒有可能, 20 或 30 年之后, 我們未來的自己, 會帶著困惑和怨恨 來看著當初的我們?！?/p>

【113】That our future selves will ask us, "What made you possibly think that that is what I would want?"

那個未來的自己會問, “是什么讓你認為 這就是我想要的？”

【114】The first piece of advice I have is if you accept the idea that you're going to be a different person in 30 years' time, you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become.

我的第一條建議是, 如果你接受 30 年后 你將成為另一個人的這一想法, 你應該發(fā)揮積極作用, 塑造那個你將要成為的人。

【115】You should be the curator of your future self.

你應該成為未來自己的策展人。

【116】You should be the architect of your future self.

你應該成為未來自己的建筑師。

【117】But what does that mean?

這是什么意思呢？

【118】Spend time with people who are not just your friends and family.

花時間與您的朋友家人以外的人相處。

【119】Spend time on avocations and professional pursuits that are not just what you do regularly.

把時間花在業(yè)余愛好和專業(yè)追求上, 而不僅僅是那些 你平時都在做的日常事務。

【120】Expand your horizons, because you're going to become someone different, you might as well be in charge of deciding who that person is going to be.

擴大你的視野, 因為你將成為不同的人, 不妨由你來決定 那個人是什么樣的。

【121】So the first piece of advice is to stay curious.

所以第一個建議是保持好奇心。

【122】Second, as we make pronouncements on social media or in political forums, or at dinner parties, let's bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us are our own future selves.

其次,當我們在社交媒體、政治論壇 或晚餐聚會上高談闊論時, 讓我們記住, 那些可能與我們有分歧的人 可能就是未來的我們自己。

【123】(Laughter) So when we express views with great certitude and confidence, let's remember to add a touch of humility.

（笑聲） 因此, 當我們非常自信地表達觀點時, 請記住要謙遜一點。

【124】This is true, by the way, not just at an individual level -- it's also true at an organizational level.

對了, 不僅在個人層面上該是這樣的—— 在組織層面上也是如此。

【125】I was speaking, some time ago, with this young, wonderful woman.

不久前,我在和一位年輕、 出色的女性交談。

【126】She had just reached a position of authority at her organization, and she had many idealistic ideas of how she wanted to change her organization.

她剛剛在她的組織中 開始擔任權威職務, 對于如何改變組織, 她有不少很理想化的主意。

【127】And she asked me, "How do we make these changes so that in the future, no one's going to come along and undo the changes that I have made?"

她問我, “我們要如何推進這些改革, 以便將來 沒有人會來推翻我所推行的改變？”

【128】And it's a very human impulse, but it stems from the same belief, that our perspective on history is the final word.

這是一種非常符合人性的沖動, 但它源于同樣的看法, 即我們對歷史的觀點是不會改變的。

【129】And quite simply, this is wrong.

很簡單,這是錯誤的。

【130】Three.

第三。

【131】I've given you a number of ways in which our future selves are going to be weaker and frailer than we are today.

我已經展示了好幾個 我們未來的自己 會比今天更脆弱的可能性。

【132】And that is true, that is part of the story.

這是真的, 這是故事的一部分。

【133】But it is only a part of the story.

但這只是故事的一部分。

【134】Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths and wisdom that we do not possess today.

我們未來的自己也將擁有 我們今天所不具備的 能力、力量和智慧。

【135】So when we confront opportunities and we hesitate, when I tell myself, "I don't think I have it in me to quit my job and start my own company,"

所以當我們面對機會而猶豫不決時, 當我告訴自己, “我不認為我有能力辭去工作 并創(chuàng)辦自己的公司,”

【136】or I tell myself I don't have it in me to learn a musical instrument at the age of 52.

或是當我告訴自己,我不具備到了 52 歲 還學習樂器的能力。

【137】Or I tell myself I don't have it in me to look after a disabled child.

或者當我告訴自己, 我沒有能力照顧殘疾兒童。

【138】What we really should be saying is "I don't have the capacity to do those things today.

我們真正應該說的是 “我今天沒有能力做那些事情。

【139】That doesn’t mean I won’t have the capacity to do those things tomorrow.” So lesson number three is to be brave.

那并不意味著 我明天沒有能力做那些事情?！?所以第三課,是要勇敢。

【140】I believe if you can do these three things, if you can stay curious, you can practice humility and you can be brave, then your future self will look back at you in 20 or 30 years --

我相信如果你能做到這三件事, 如果你能保持好奇心, 保持謙遜,并且勇敢, 那未來的你自己, 在 20 或 30 年之后——

【141】will look back, not with resentment or bewilderment, but will look back at you and say: "Thank you."

回顧時不會帶著怨恨或困惑, 而是會回頭看著你說: “謝謝你?！?/p>

【142】(Applause)