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選段及譯文來(lái)自《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人商論》，筆記由譯群人團(tuán)隊(duì)原創(chuàng)，非商業(yè)用途。

What might that be? People often tell pollsters they want more children than they have.?This gap between aspiration and reality could be?in part because?would-be?parents—who, in effect, subsidise future?childless?pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment.?Yet even if these are fixed, economic development is still likely to lead to a fall in fertility below the replacement rate.?Pro-family?policies have a disappointing?record. Singapore offers lavish grants, tax rebates and child-care subsidies—but has a fertility rate of 1.0.

這種改變可能是什么呢？在民意調(diào)查中，人們常常表示他們本來(lái)想要更多孩子。這種愿望與現(xiàn)實(shí)之間的差距在一定程度上可能是因?yàn)橄胍优娜恕麄儗?shí)際上是在補(bǔ)貼未來(lái)沒有孩子的退休人口——無(wú)法負(fù)擔(dān)撫養(yǎng)更多孩子的成本，或者是因?yàn)槠渌呱系氖。缱》慷倘被蛏t(yī)療不足。然而，即使這些問題得到解決，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展仍然可能導(dǎo)致生育率降至更替率以下。鼓勵(lì)成家育兒的政策一直效果不佳。新加坡提供慷慨的補(bǔ)助、退稅和育兒補(bǔ)貼，但生育率只有1.0。

in part because...部分是由于……，表示“部分原因”的詞還可以有：

partly because…?

Some people are unwilling to attend the classes partly because of the cost involved. 有些人不愿來(lái)上課，部份原因是所需的費(fèi)用問題。

due in part to sth?

Her success was due in part to luck. 她的成功在某種程度上是由于運(yùn)氣好。

thanks partly to sth

be partly to do sth?與…有一定關(guān)系

be partly to blame?…要負(fù)一定責(zé)任

Would-be只能放在名詞前修飾，表示：used to describe sb who is hoping to become the type of person mentioned （形容想要成為…的人）未來(lái)的

a would-be actor 想要成為演員的人

advice for would-be parents 對(duì)即將成為父母的人的忠告

我們?cè)?jīng)在TikTok這篇筆記中總結(jié)過(guò)連詞符的用法，這里would-be屬于這種情況：連接復(fù)雜形容詞當(dāng)形容詞由兩個(gè)或多個(gè)單詞組成時(shí)，需要用連詞符將它們連接在一起。例如：good-looking（好看的）、well-known（知名的）、high-tech（高科技的）。

[長(zhǎng)句拆解]?This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment.這句話比較長(zhǎng)，但分析一下結(jié)構(gòu)就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)并不復(fù)雜。

句子主干是This gap could be because A or because of B.A是從句：would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children

在這個(gè)從句中，有一個(gè)插入成分：who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners 這個(gè)插入成分其實(shí)是一個(gè)定語(yǔ)從句，引導(dǎo)詞who的先行詞是would-be parents。

這個(gè)插入成分中還有一個(gè)插入語(yǔ)in effect（實(shí)際上）。

childless的-less詞綴也講下，構(gòu)成形容詞，有兩種意思，一個(gè)是without 沒有；無(wú)，比如：treeless 沒有樹木meaningless 無(wú)意義

childless也是屬于這種情況。

還有一種意思是：not doing; not affected by 不做；不受影響，比如：tireless 孜孜不倦selfless 無(wú)私

Pensioner指a person who is receiving a pension, especially from the government 領(lǐng)養(yǎng)老金（或退休金、撫恤金）者，還有一種說(shuō)法可以與之互換：senior citizen 資深公民，老年人，是一種委婉說(shuō)法，尤指退休者

Pro-這個(gè)詞綴大家應(yīng)該都很熟悉了，構(gòu)成形容詞，表示in favour of; supporting 擁護(hù)；支持；親，比如pro-democracy 擁護(hù)民主。

本段中的pro-family，顧名思義，就是promiting family life and traditional moral values 崇尚家庭生活和傳統(tǒng)道德觀的。與之相對(duì)的是anti-, 表示opposed to; against 反；反對(duì)，比如：anti-tank weapons 反坦克武器；antisocial 反社會(huì)

這段話中，我們還要重點(diǎn)關(guān)注一個(gè)小詞：record.?[ sing.] ~ (on sth)the facts that are known about sb/sth's past behaviour, character, achievements, etc. （有關(guān)過(guò)去的）事實(shí)；記錄；經(jīng)歷；功過(guò)

在說(shuō)“業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)”的時(shí)候，我們可以用record或track record，特別是在寫個(gè)人陳述、公司簡(jiǎn)介的時(shí)候，用得很多：

The airline has a good safety record . 這家航空公司的安全情況一向很好。

He has an impressive record of achievement. 他所取得的一系列成就令人贊嘆。

The job needs someone with a good track record in investment.這份工作需要一個(gè)在投資方面有良好業(yè)績(jī)的人。

不過(guò)，record是雙向的，它就是指過(guò)往表現(xiàn)，不論好壞：The report criticizes the government's record on housing. 這份報(bào)告批評(píng)了政府在住房問題上的所作所為。

Unleashing the potential of the world’s poor would ease the shortage of educated young workers without more births. Two-thirds of Chinese children live in the countryside and attend mostly dreadful schools; the same fraction of 25- to 34-year-olds in India have not completed upper secondary education. Africa’s?pool?of young people will continue to grow for decades. Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also?cast?more young migrants as innovators in?otherwise-stagnant economies. Yet encouraging development is hard—and the sooner places get rich, the sooner they get old.

在生育率不提高的情況下，釋放世界貧困人口的潛力可以緩解受過(guò)教育的年輕勞動(dòng)力不足的問題。三分之二的中國(guó)兒童生活在農(nóng)村，大多在條件極簡(jiǎn)陋的學(xué)校就讀；在印度，同樣比例的25至34歲人口沒有完成高中教育。未來(lái)幾十年，非洲的年輕人口將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。提高他們的技能本身是好事，同時(shí)還可能讓更多的年輕移民進(jìn)入原本將停滯不前的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，發(fā)揮創(chuàng)新者的作用。但是，促進(jìn)發(fā)展很難——而且一個(gè)地區(qū)越快富裕起來(lái)，也就越快老齡化。

Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades.在這句話中，pool的意思是指某個(gè)特定的資源或群體，即非洲年輕人的總體數(shù)量或群體。

來(lái)幾個(gè)例句：

The company is looking to hire from a diverse pool of candidates. 公司正在尋找來(lái)自不同背景的候選人。

The school organized a talent show to showcase the diverse skill pool of its students. 學(xué)校組織了一場(chǎng)才藝表演，展示學(xué)生們的各種技能。

The government is investing in programs to tap into the country's growing entrepreneurial pool. 政府正在投資計(jì)劃，以開發(fā)該國(guó)不斷增長(zhǎng)的企業(yè)家資源。

再來(lái)看這句話：Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies.

cast的意思應(yīng)該是：[ VN] ~ sb (as sth)~ sb (in sth)to describe or present sb in a particular way 把某人描寫成；把某人表現(xiàn)為，比如：

He cast himself as the innocent victim of a hate campaign. 他把自己說(shuō)成是一場(chǎng)詆毀聲譽(yù)行為的無(wú)辜受害者。

The press were quick to cast her in the role of ‘the other woman’. 新聞界很快把她描述成“第三者”的角色。

Cast more young migrants as innovators，就是把更多年輕移民打造成創(chuàng)新者的角色。

Otherwise指除此以外、在其他情況下或者在沒有其他改變時(shí)。它用于描述一個(gè)對(duì)比或?qū)φ?，?qiáng)調(diào)在特定情況下所提到的情況與其他情況的不同之處。

Otherwise-stagnant economy指原本停滯不前的經(jīng)濟(jì)中，通過(guò)將更多年輕移民視為創(chuàng)新者cast more young migrants as innovators，能夠產(chǎn)生積極的影響。

換句話說(shuō)，如果不將他們視為創(chuàng)新者，那么在這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中就沒有其他改變或希望。在翻譯的時(shí)候，otherwise在這種語(yǔ)境下經(jīng)常處理為“原本/平時(shí)如何如何”，比如

an otherwise beautiful country一個(gè)原本很美麗的國(guó)家。

The decorations for the games have lent a splash of colour to an otherwise drab city.運(yùn)動(dòng)會(huì)的裝飾為這個(gè)平時(shí)乏味的城市增添了幾抹色彩。

Eventually, therefore, the world will have to?make do with?fewer youngsters—and perhaps with a shrinking population. With that in mind, recent advances in AI?could not have come at a better time. An?über-productive?AI-infused?economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people. Eventually AI may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence. Combined with robotics, AI may also make caring for the elderly less labour-intensive. Such innovations will certainly be in high demand.

因此，最終世界將不得不接受年輕人口減少的現(xiàn)實(shí)——而且可能還要接受總?cè)丝诘奈s。考慮到這一點(diǎn)，AI近來(lái)的進(jìn)展可謂恰逢其時(shí)。一個(gè)大量運(yùn)用AI、生產(chǎn)率超高的經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能更容易贍養(yǎng)更多退休人口。最終，AI可能會(huì)自己產(chǎn)生想法，減少對(duì)人類智能的需求。與機(jī)器人技術(shù)相結(jié)合后，AI還可以降低照顧老人的勞動(dòng)強(qiáng)度。這樣的創(chuàng)新必然有著巨大的需求。

Make do with表示將就，湊合：

We were in a hurry so we had to make do with a quick snack. 我們很匆忙，只好將就著來(lái)了點(diǎn)小吃。

Why make do with a copy if you can afford the genuine article? 如果你買得起正品，為什么還拿復(fù)制品湊合呢？有點(diǎn)“權(quán)宜之計(jì)”的意思。那么，“權(quán)宜之計(jì)”如果用其他詞性（比如名詞或形容詞）表達(dá)，還有哪些選擇呢：

• fudge?/f?d?/: N an unsatisfactory compromise reached to evade a difficult problem or controversial issue 不太令人滿意的折中方案

This solution is a fudge rushed in to win cheers at the party conference.這個(gè)解決方案是為了贏得黨的會(huì)議的贊譽(yù)而倉(cāng)促搞出來(lái)的表面文章。

該詞也可以用作動(dòng)詞：V-T If you fudge something, you avoid making a clear and definite decision, distinction, or statement about it. 模糊處理

Both have fudged their calculations and avoided specifics.雙方都模糊處理了其計(jì)算結(jié)果并回避了細(xì)節(jié)。

• palliative?/?p?li?t?v/本意就是醫(yī)學(xué)上的“治標(biāo)措施”:

( medical 醫(yī) ) a medicine or medical treatment that reduces pain without curing its cause 治標(biāo)藥物；緩解劑；治標(biāo)措施；保守療法, 可引申為“權(quán)宜之計(jì)”：(formal usually disapproving ) an action, a decision, etc. that is designed to make a difficult situation seem better without actually solving the cause of the problems 權(quán)宜之計(jì)；消極措施；緩沖劑，比如：

The loan was a palliative, not a cure, for ever-increasing financial troubles.貸款對(duì)于日益增長(zhǎng)的財(cái)政困難是一種權(quán)宜之計(jì)而非根治。

用作形容詞也可：palliative treatment 保守療法short-term palliative measures 短期的權(quán)宜之計(jì)

• Sticking-plaster，來(lái)自于sticking plaster, 即橡皮膏，創(chuàng)可貼，加個(gè)連字符就是形容詞：dealing with a problem in a temporary and unsatisfactory way 權(quán)宜:

a sticking-plaster approach/solution/measure

• makeshift，形容詞：[ usually before noun ] used temporarily for a particular purpose because the real thing is not available 臨時(shí)替代的；權(quán)宜的，比如：

A few cushions formed a makeshift bed. 臨時(shí)用幾個(gè)墊子拼了一張床。

• Expedient?/?k?spi?di?nt/也可表達(dá)類似的概念：

ADJ If it is expedient to do something, it is useful or convenient to do it, even though it may not be morally right. 權(quán)宜的，比如：

Governments frequently ignore human rights abuses in other countries if it is politically expedient to do so.如果在政治上對(duì)自己有利，政府經(jīng)常忽視其他國(guó)家侵犯人權(quán)的行為。

• quick and dirty：made or produced very quickly but not very well 粗制濫造的，臨時(shí)應(yīng)急的；暫時(shí)湊合使用的；權(quán)宜之計(jì)的，【一般用于貶義】：

European officials last month unveiled plans for a quick and dirty tax policy to apply to big digital firms, in theory by the end of the year.上月，歐盟官員公布計(jì)劃，將對(duì)大型數(shù)字企業(yè)實(shí)行臨時(shí)稅收政策，理論上會(huì)在今年年底實(shí)施。

With that in mind, recent advances in AI could not have come at a better time. 這句話中的could not have come at a better time是一種強(qiáng)調(diào)的表達(dá)方式，通過(guò)否定預(yù)期和比較級(jí)，用來(lái)表示某件事情發(fā)生的時(shí)機(jī)非常適宜，強(qiáng)調(diào)AI的進(jìn)步恰好發(fā)生在一個(gè)非常好的時(shí)機(jī)。所以，我們可以提煉出這樣的寫作句式：sth. could not have come at a better time.某件事的發(fā)生恰逢其時(shí)。

我們?cè)賮?lái)認(rèn)識(shí)一下這個(gè)詞綴：uber-?，也是文中的über-，這個(gè)詞綴來(lái)自德語(yǔ)，構(gòu)成名詞和形容詞，表示of the greatest or best kind; to a very large degree 最好的；超級(jí)的。比如：

His girlfriend was a real uber-babe, with long blonde hair and a big smile. 他的女友是個(gè)超級(jí)靚妞，一頭長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)的金發(fā)，臉上帶著燦爛的笑容。

The movie stars the uber-cool Jean Reno. 超級(jí)酷哥讓?雷諾演出這部影片。

什么叫AI-infused？先看Infuse的詞義：[ VN] ~ A into B~ B with A( formal ) to make sb/sth have a particular quality 使具有，注入（某特性）

Her novels are infused with sadness. 她的小說(shuō)充滿哀傷。An AI-infused economy就是說(shuō)在這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中大量運(yùn)用AI技術(shù)，意思和后面出現(xiàn)的-intensive有點(diǎn)類似，比如：?...the development of capital-intensive farming....資本密集型農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展。

If technology does allow humanity to overcome the baby bust, it will fit the historical pattern. Unexpected productivity advances meant that demographic?time-bombs, such as the mass starvation predicted by Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, failed to detonate. Fewer babies means less human genius. But that might be a problem human genius can fix.

如果技術(shù)真的能幫助人類度過(guò)嬰兒荒，那也將符合歷史規(guī)律。過(guò)往意想不到的生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)步意味著人口定時(shí)炸彈并未引爆，例如托馬斯·馬爾薩斯（Thomas Malthus）在18世紀(jì)預(yù)測(cè)的大饑荒就沒有出現(xiàn)。新生兒減少意味著人類才智減少。但人類才智也許能解決這個(gè)問題。

“隱患”可以怎么表達(dá)呢？除了hazard, danger之外，通過(guò)本段，我們掌握一個(gè)詞組time bomb：a situation that is likely to cause serious problems in the future，來(lái)兩個(gè)關(guān)于失業(yè)率的例句：

Rising unemployment is a political time bomb for the government. 日益嚴(yán)重的失業(yè)問題對(duì)政府來(lái)說(shuō)是一枚政治上的定時(shí)炸彈。

Unemployment is building up into a social time bomb across the industrialized world.失業(yè)正成為工業(yè)化社會(huì)中的一種社會(huì)性潛在破壞因素。

本專題完。

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