金燦榮:中國未來學的發(fā)展

Thank you, thank you for professor Woodgate. It's great honor, great pressure for me to share some views with my European fans, my European colleagues. The Chinese society for future studies was establish 42 years ago, in the Jan 16th, 1979, at Beijing. Now we owns over 30 sub-communities and over 10k individual members. Perhaps comparing to our European society it's quite large but in chine it's quite small. As for the future studies, actually 40 years ago, when we established, it's very hot. At that time, many chinese people, public, relying us to looking into the future, ask us to make bold forecasting for the coming days. But nowadays, I think the future study is not as hot as 40 years ago, because now people, 嘖, very sure about what will be happening in the near future. So, compare to 40 years ago, our, de...de...de, how to say, the demand from the sociey is not that much, that's the reality, but we will still focus on our job, try to give better answer to the demand of our public. And, so because of that, we like very much to have more cooperation with our European colleagues. But today, I want to introduce how Chinese colleagues looking into the outside world, but I will make comparison. Today, when you visit China, and you talk with scholars, many scholars will show(?) this new point that is the only thing certain is uncertain. Because the world outside China is very disturbing, and the future direction is not very clear. This uncertainty, mainly compare to 40 years ago, back to 40 years ago, at the early 1980s, that is the earlies stage of Chinese reform and opening-up. At that time, from Chinese perspective, the outside world is comparatively certain. Why is that? At that time, we believe the western society get into the so-called the post industry society. Now the professor of the Harverd university Daniel published his book- The Coming of the Post Industry Society, translated into China, get huge market success. And then, his book told us, China has 2 jobs to do now: one is industrilize China itself, because western coutries finish this job, industrilization, right, but China still at the process in early 1980s; then we have the second job, to catch up the western countries further, make China a post-industry society. That's something very sure. China need do two things: industrilize itself and then get further, to become a post-industry society. (Next, please)